Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 72.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 80.986
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 48.2%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.6468th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 8.9%78th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows mixed signals: the Beneish M-Score is -1.2654 (84th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.19, indicating accounting metrics have moved more aggressively than most Vietnamese peers though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly decisive. Specific component readings include a high AQI of 3.4282 (asset-quality change), DEPI 1.0641 (depreciation index above 1), and modest TATA of 0.0116 (total accruals). Operational and solvency indicators diverge: Altman Z-Score is 4.41 (in the safe zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is weak at 3/9. Earnings-quality sub-scores show strong accruals and receivables quality (95.3/100 and 100/100) but very low margin and revenue quality (0/100 each). Vietnamese checks show a three-year cash-conversion ratio of 1.64 (68th percentile) and receivables outside the trade cycle of 8.9% of assets (78th percentile).
- M-Score -1.2654, Vietnam peer percentile 84th and YoY change +1.19 — the score is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially year-over-year (the -1.78 US cutoff is not decisive for Vietnam).
- AQI = 3.4282 — the asset-quality index measures increases in non-operating or long-term assets relative to total assets; a value well above 1 signals notable growth in non-trade or less-liquid asset categories.
- DEPI = 1.0641 — the depreciation index (ratio of prior-year depreciation patterns) above 1 indicates depreciation expense has decreased relative to the prior year’s implied rate, which can increase reported profits if not driven by real economic factors.
- Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these components measure consistency and sustainability of margins and revenue; zero scores flag weak quality in reported margins and top-line recognition.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 8.9% of total assets (78th percentile) — a relatively large share of assets are prepayments, loans receivable or other non-trade receivables, which can be harder to convert to cash.
- Cash-conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.64 (68th percentile) — profits are not converting into cash as strongly as many peers (higher percentile is worse for this metric).
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 — weak fundamental score across profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency checks.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.41 — places the company in the 'safe' zone for distance to bankruptcy in the Altman framework.
- Accruals quality = 95.3/100 and TATA = 0.0116 — low total accruals relative to assets and a high accruals-quality score indicate reported earnings are not primarily driven by large discretionary accruals.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 — the analysis finds receivables themselves score highly on quality (despite the elevated share of non-trade receivables noted above).
- SGAI = 0.8804 — selling, general & administrative expense index below 1 indicates SG&A scaled down versus sales, which can reflect operating efficiency or cost control.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent has 0 consecutive years of net loss up to FY2025 — the statutory balance-sheet tests and retained-earnings position do not show deficit issues.
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) — none of the cancellation-triggering tests were met in the published audited annual statements.
The listed group holds control of 86.0% of DMX (a group company), and the top shareholder is an institutional entity with 10.4%; other institutional holders hold 5.0% and 3.5%, while the founding/management individuals hold relatively small direct stakes (Nguyễn Đức Tài 2.3%, Đinh Anh Huân 2.2%). This indicates concentrated group control at the subsidiary level, with institutional shareholders present among top holders.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) on 'prepayments to suppliers', 'loans receivable' and 'other long-term receivables' to the balance-sheet line showing the 8.9% of total assets in non-trade receivables; identify counterparties and related parties.
- Reconcile the statement of cash flows (operating cash flow, 3-year aggregation where applicable) with reported net profit to confirm the components driving the cash-conversion ratio 1.64 and to itemize major non-cash adjustments (depreciation, provisions, working-capital movements).
- Review the fixed-asset and depreciation accounting policy notes and the schedule of additions/disposals to assess the drivers of DEPI = 1.0641 and AQI = 3.4282 (look for reclassifications, large additions, impairments or changes in useful lives).
- Examine related-party disclosures, the holder lists and the DMX ownership note to understand intra-group transactions, guarantees, or balances given the listed group control of 86.0% of DMX.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 3.35
- P/S
- 0.70
- ROE
- 23.3%
- ROA
- 9.1%
- EPS
- 4.790
- BVPS
- 22.201
- Gross Margin
- 19.9%
- Net Margin
- 4.5%
- D/E
- 0.90
- Current Ratio
- 1.52
- Rev Growth
- +16.4%
- Profit Growth
- +89.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 11.25
- Div Yield
- 1.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 1,476M
- Charter Capital
- 14,757B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bán lẻ
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bán lẻ
- Sub-industry
- Phân phối hàng chuyên dụng
- Company Type
- CT