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MWG

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Thế Giới Di Động

VietnamConsumerBán lẻHOSECT
72.400
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+11.9%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
72.400
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
80.986

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
48.2%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

−0.6percentage points
Consumer12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−9.5+5.5
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bán lẻ→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Bán lẻ” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.086
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.87%
Ke
11.87%
x
E/(D+E)
50.74%
+
Kd(1-t)
3.01%
x
D/(D+E)
49.26%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
historical blend5.34%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→6062.41B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→72.400
Calibrated value vs last close→+11.9%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
80.986
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate5.34%growth method: historical blend
Base cash flow6.1 nghìn tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth2.3%3.8%5.3%6.8%8.3%
8.0%81.15781.15781.15781.15781.157
9.0%80.98680.98680.98680.98680.986
10.0%80.98680.98680.98680.98680.986
11.0%77.33177.33177.33180.98680.986
12.0%77.33177.33177.33177.33177.331
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·77,20265,83651,95044,57851,95537,31735,01223,37218,86312,2886,1762,8381,909
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·5,0004,8975,3665,0614,1427,3483,1153,7503,411997344213305
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·33,87429,32418,93710,06914,2378,0573,1375100000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·10,1838,8265,1593,0013,1621,5951,8151,5432,7661,411636297247
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·14211696404391288195211183152189138
Net Inventories
·27,26722,24521,82425,69629,16719,42225,74517,44612,0509,3714,9332,1951,289
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·27,87622,66822,02926,05829,85019,92626,19617,82112,3109,5145,0102,2541,305
Other current assets
·8785446657501,2478951,19958363651026413368
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000053
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·6,7444,6018,16111,25611,0168,7146,6964,7513,9602,5661,089570323
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·40439045850348243937531424218011200
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·40439044849448243937531424218011200
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·2,5983,5876,5009,7289,6477,2955,4043,3333,4642,096849434275
Tangible fixed assets
·2,5403,5236,4319,6539,5677,2675,3753,3053,4362,070827388259
Intagible fixed assets
·5863697480282828282722235
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·3,136242747231053566000000
Investments in associate companies
·371242287181053566000000
Goodwill
·00000000000230.7
Other non-current assets
·5153584526718077947747872192108511347
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·64681051758877104859812457255
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·83,94670,43860,11155,83462,97146,03141,70828,12322,82314,8547,2663,4072,232
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·50,77042,31636,75231,90242,59330,54929,56519,13916,91411,0134,7821,9231,407
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·50,77042,31630,76526,00042,59329,42328,44217,92915,71411,0134,7821,9231,407
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·29,93127,30019,12910,68824,64715,62513,0315,8365,6044,7892,053619513
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·2109189989887813822201982
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·005,9865,90101,1271,1221,2101,2000000
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·005,9855,90101,1271,1221,2081,2000000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·33,17628,12223,36023,93320,37815,48212,1448,9835,9093,8412,4841,475800
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·33,17628,12223,36023,93320,37815,48212,1448,9835,9093,8412,4841,475800
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·14,69714,62214,63414,6397,1314,5324,4354,4353,1701,5401,4691,120110
Other Reserves
·0000001111111
Foreign Currency Difference reserve
·02425−1−0.030.4−0.090000
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·18,06812,5828,1608,72412,67510,3907,1503,9902,6992,262978318538
Minority Interest
·00000000000924
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·83,94670,43860,11155,83462,97146,03141,70828,12322,82314,8547,2663,4072,232
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·6,9116,0382,086179628000850000
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00910000000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·14,69714,62214,63414,6397,1314,5324,4354,4353,1701,5401,4691,120110
Good will (Bn. VND)
·00246307368430491553001300
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·57636413151298632200

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
61
Fair
Accrual Quality
95
Cash Conversion
69
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.27 · 84th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.19
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.994
GMI
1.030
AQI
3.428
SGI
1.161
DEPI
1.064
SGAI
0.880
TATA
0.012
LVGI
1.007

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.6468th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
8.9%78th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows mixed signals: the Beneish M-Score is -1.2654 (84th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.19, indicating accounting metrics have moved more aggressively than most Vietnamese peers though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly decisive. Specific component readings include a high AQI of 3.4282 (asset-quality change), DEPI 1.0641 (depreciation index above 1), and modest TATA of 0.0116 (total accruals). Operational and solvency indicators diverge: Altman Z-Score is 4.41 (in the safe zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is weak at 3/9. Earnings-quality sub-scores show strong accruals and receivables quality (95.3/100 and 100/100) but very low margin and revenue quality (0/100 each). Vietnamese checks show a three-year cash-conversion ratio of 1.64 (68th percentile) and receivables outside the trade cycle of 8.9% of assets (78th percentile).

Red Flags
  • M-Score -1.2654, Vietnam peer percentile 84th and YoY change +1.19 — the score is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially year-over-year (the -1.78 US cutoff is not decisive for Vietnam).
  • AQI = 3.4282 — the asset-quality index measures increases in non-operating or long-term assets relative to total assets; a value well above 1 signals notable growth in non-trade or less-liquid asset categories.
  • DEPI = 1.0641 — the depreciation index (ratio of prior-year depreciation patterns) above 1 indicates depreciation expense has decreased relative to the prior year’s implied rate, which can increase reported profits if not driven by real economic factors.
  • Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these components measure consistency and sustainability of margins and revenue; zero scores flag weak quality in reported margins and top-line recognition.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 8.9% of total assets (78th percentile) — a relatively large share of assets are prepayments, loans receivable or other non-trade receivables, which can be harder to convert to cash.
  • Cash-conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.64 (68th percentile) — profits are not converting into cash as strongly as many peers (higher percentile is worse for this metric).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 — weak fundamental score across profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency checks.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 4.41 — places the company in the 'safe' zone for distance to bankruptcy in the Altman framework.
  • Accruals quality = 95.3/100 and TATA = 0.0116 — low total accruals relative to assets and a high accruals-quality score indicate reported earnings are not primarily driven by large discretionary accruals.
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100 — the analysis finds receivables themselves score highly on quality (despite the elevated share of non-trade receivables noted above).
  • SGAI = 0.8804 — selling, general & administrative expense index below 1 indicates SG&A scaled down versus sales, which can reflect operating efficiency or cost control.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent has 0 consecutive years of net loss up to FY2025 — the statutory balance-sheet tests and retained-earnings position do not show deficit issues.
  • Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) — none of the cancellation-triggering tests were met in the published audited annual statements.
Ownership Risk

The listed group holds control of 86.0% of DMX (a group company), and the top shareholder is an institutional entity with 10.4%; other institutional holders hold 5.0% and 3.5%, while the founding/management individuals hold relatively small direct stakes (Nguyễn Đức Tài 2.3%, Đinh Anh Huân 2.2%). This indicates concentrated group control at the subsidiary level, with institutional shareholders present among top holders.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note(s) on 'prepayments to suppliers', 'loans receivable' and 'other long-term receivables' to the balance-sheet line showing the 8.9% of total assets in non-trade receivables; identify counterparties and related parties.
  • Reconcile the statement of cash flows (operating cash flow, 3-year aggregation where applicable) with reported net profit to confirm the components driving the cash-conversion ratio 1.64 and to itemize major non-cash adjustments (depreciation, provisions, working-capital movements).
  • Review the fixed-asset and depreciation accounting policy notes and the schedule of additions/disposals to assess the drivers of DEPI = 1.0641 and AQI = 3.4282 (look for reclassifications, large additions, impairments or changes in useful lives).
  • Examine related-party disclosures, the holder lists and the DMX ownership note to understand intra-group transactions, guarantees, or balances given the listed group control of 86.0% of DMX.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
4.41
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.35
Negative
Composite
54
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.82×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.06×Turnover1.86×Leverage2.53=ROE21.3%
Price Risk
Momentum
−7.9%
Volatility
30.5%
Max Drawdown
−32.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
15.53P/E
P/B
3.35
P/S
0.70
ROE
23.3%
ROA
9.1%
EPS
4.790
BVPS
22.201
Gross Margin
19.9%
Net Margin
4.5%
D/E
0.90
Current Ratio
1.52
Rev Growth
+16.4%
Profit Growth
+89.1%
EV/EBITDA
11.25
Div Yield
1.3%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
1,476M
Charter Capital
14,757B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3)
Bán lẻ
Sub-industry
Phân phối hàng chuyên dụng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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