KBC

Tổng Công ty Phát triển Đô thị Kinh Bắc - CTCP

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT

25.950

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+16.6%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 25.950
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 30.269

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details

Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

1.142

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.11%

E/(D+E)

67.12%

Kd(1-t)

1.87%

D/(D+E)

32.88%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.50%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→25.950

Calibrated value vs last close→+16.6%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

30.269

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.00%high risk: no

Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental firm blend

Base cash flow2.0 nghìn tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	0.5%	2.0%	3.5%	5.0%	6.5%
8.0%	30.269	30.269	30.269	30.269	30.269
9.0%	29.709	29.709	29.709	30.269	30.269
10.0%	25.801	25.801	26.109	28.937	28.937
11.0%	25.801	25.801	25.801	25.801	25.801
12.0%	22.980	22.980	22.980	22.980	25.537

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

KBC among Real Estate

Every stock in the sector, KBC marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is KBC. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	54,528	36,075	25,029	27,674	25,684	21,403	13,912	14,862	13,730	13,011	12,003	10,667	9,990
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	8,369	6,566	841	1,683	2,562	1,050	652	224	505	295	228	149	103
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	6,803	1,858	1,864	2,442	2,016	1,940	3	3	1	1	2	2	2
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	11,772	13,309	9,663	10,896	9,346	6,638	5,493	5,842	4,744	4,382	3,362	2,848	2,368
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	5,867	3,500	3,273	3,565	2,877	2,701	2,443	2,082	1,811	1,637	1,324	1,335	1,482
Net Inventories	·	27,073	13,850	12,219	12,330	11,515	11,534	7,548	8,593	8,323	8,244	8,364	7,616	7,473
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	27,073	13,850	12,219	12,330	11,515	11,534	7,548	8,593	8,323	8,244	8,364	7,616	7,473
Other current assets	·	511	493	443	323	245	242	216	200	158	89	47	51	44
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0.1	0.05	0.07	0.08	0.04	0.05	0	0	0	0	0	0	30
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	15,023	8,655	8,405	7,232	5,318	2,383	2,521	2,047	2,050	1,647	1,651	2,399	2,543
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	74	1,366	1,532	821	1,490	182	128	601	725	304	356	480	282
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	74	608	652	672	428	41	127	600	671	41	16	0.4	0.3
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	515	408	449	365	249	256	254	157	118	124	141	139	390
Tangible fixed assets	·	515	408	449	365	248	256	254	157	118	124	141	139	144
Intagible fixed assets	·	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.05	0.06	0.2	0.2	0.2	0	0	0	0	0.00
Investment in properties	·	1,107	1,292	1,201	168	191	394	433	134	135	87	20	22	129
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	9,091	4,817	4,777	4,697	2,298	661	861	948	912	893	893	1,518	1,715
Investments in associate companies	·	7,325	4,394	4,378	4,324	1,882	235	435	517	503	484	463	446	745
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	528	425	425	400	439	449	449	449	449	449	453	1,141	1,065
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−0.3	−1	−26	−26	−23	−23	−22	−18	−40	−40	−23	−70	−95
Other non-current assets	·	35	40	19	12	16	21	23	13	9	5	6	3	26
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	35	40	19	10	16	21	23	13	9	5	6	3	26
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	69,551	44,730	33,434	34,907	31,002	23,786	16,433	16,910	15,780	14,658	13,654	13,066	12,532
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	42,825	24,085	13,213	17,061	14,433	13,133	6,052	7,072	6,742	6,036	5,618	6,810	7,618
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	11,948	7,093	6,579	10,684	6,511	6,962	4,067	3,933	3,326	3,373	2,945	2,593	6,521
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	2,287	371	337	3,951	1,515	1,547	804	1,204	1,132	863	1,205	1,017	3,304
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	1,572	758	553	878	514	894	414	447	404	875	426	409	432
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	30,877	16,992	6,635	6,377	7,922	6,171	1,984	3,139	3,416	2,664	2,673	4,217	1,097
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	26,321	9,741	3,322	3,687	5,539	4,218	1,122	1,283	1,591	1,105	1,352	2,150	553
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	26,726	20,645	20,221	17,846	16,569	10,653	10,381	9,837	9,038	8,621	8,036	6,256	4,050
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	26,726	20,645	20,221	17,846	16,569	10,653	10,381	9,837	9,038	8,621	8,036	6,256	4,050
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	9,418	7,676	7,676	7,676	5,757	4,757	4,757	4,757	4,757	4,757	4,757	3,957	2,957
Other Reserves	·	3,325	3,325	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	12	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	6,884	4,811	7,754	5,646	5,411	4,316	4,099	3,651	2,905	2,319	1,782	1,170	844
Minority Interest	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	864
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	69,551	44,730	33,434	34,907	31,002	23,786	16,433	16,910	15,780	14,658	13,654	13,066	12,532
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	3,281	2,385	2,762	2,304	925	392	181	52	28	12	63	0
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	757	881	148	1,061	141	1	0.7	27	51	8	15	0
Convertible bonds (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	886	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	9,418	7,676	7,676	7,676	5,698	4,698	4,757	4,757	4,757	4,757	4,757	3,957	2,957
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	1,925	2,087	2,045	1,777	2,366	953	898	803	750	918	871	880	0

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

90th–97th

M −0.52 · 91st pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +0.89

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.367

GMI

0.969

AQI

1.131

SGI

2.409

DEPI

1.103

SGAI

0.560

TATA

0.281

LVGI

1.462

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: −2.708th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 8.5%77th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows several accounting signals of elevated earnings aggressiveness versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -0.5166 (91st percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.89, and low overall earnings-quality (26.9/100) driven by very weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue quality (0.0/100). At the same time, receivables quality scores strongly (100/100) and there are no accumulated losses or statutory loss triggers in the published annual statements.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score -0.5166: measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios; company ranks in the 91st percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting relative to peers) and the M-Score rose by +0.89 year-over-year (a substantial trajectory change). Note: the -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated and less directly applicable to Vietnam.
Earnings-Quality total 26.9/100 with very low subcomponents: Cash conversion 0.0/100 (operating cash flow poorly converting reported profits), Revenue quality 0.0/100 (signals about persistence and quality of reported revenue), Margin quality 19.5/100 and Accruals quality 15.9/100 — these point to weak reported profitability and heavy reliance on non-cash or non-recurring items.
Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -2.70 (8th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials): measures whether reported profits are turning into operating cash; a negative and low percentile indicates profits have not generated cash over the last three years.
TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.2811: measures the size of accruals relative to assets; a relatively large positive value suggests earnings contain substantial accruals.
LVGI (sales general and administrative to inventory/ gross?) = 1.4620 and SGI 2.4091 (Sales Growth Index): high SGI (2.4091) measures rapid revenue growth relative to peers and LVGI/GMI/DEPI movements indicate inventory and cost dynamics that can accompany aggressive recognition (DEPI 1.1032, AQI 1.1315).
Altman Z-Score 1.56 (distress zone): measures proximity to bankruptcy using five balance-sheet and income items; a score of 1.56 places the company in the distress zone for financial health.
Director-deal registrations in 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30: 1 sale registration (1 trader; 1 without a volume) and 5 purchase registrations (5 traders; 28,000,000 shares; 2 without a volume). These are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality 100.0/100: measures the proportion and behavior of receivables; a top score suggests receivables are not the primary source of accounting concern.
No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive: accumulated losses absent and equity is positive, so the company does not meet statutory loss thresholds reported in the financial statements.
Piotroski F-Score 4/9: a neutral-to-weak fundamental signal (measures profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency across nine binary tests) rather than an extreme deterioration.

Ownership Risk

Top shareholders are dispersed with the largest institutional holder at 10.3% and no single holder above 50%; a listed group holds 21.5% of SGT (significant influence). Several institutions and an individual appear among the top holders. Director-deal registrations show several insiders registered purchases and one registered sale in the last year (registrations, not executed trades).

To check in the filings

Compare FY2025 operating cash flow with parent net profit in the consolidated cash-flow statement and the cash-flow note to confirm the drivers of the three-year cash-conversion ratio (-2.70).
Review the receivables/similar-account schedules and the related-party disclosures to identify the composition of the 8.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
Inspect the notes on revenue recognition and significant contracts (revenue notes, advances from customers) to reconcile why revenue quality scores 0.0/100 while SGI is 2.4091.
Examine the accruals and working-capital schedule and the auditor’s report for commentary on large accrual items (TATA = 0.2811) and any emphasis-of-matter paragraphs relating to going concern or accounting estimates.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.56

Distress Zone

Sharpe

−0.88

Negative

Composite

50 to 69

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✗No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✓Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.75×Interest Burden1.13×Op. Margin0.39×Turnover0.10×Leverage2.60=ROE8.3%

Price Risk

Momentum

−24.4%

Volatility

16.9%

Max Drawdown

−34.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

11.64P/E

P/B: 0.99
P/S: 3.66
ROE: 9.7%
ROA: 3.7%
EPS: 2.234
BVPS: 26.335
Gross Margin: 47.7%
Net Margin: 33.0%
D/E: 1.07
Current Ratio: 4.56
Rev Growth: +140.9%
Profit Growth: +462.1%
EV/EBITDA: 15.22
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 942M
Charter Capital: 9,418B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3): Bất động sản
Sub-industry: Bất động sản
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for KBC. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Phát Triển Xanh Bền Vững Châu Á Thái Bình Dương

Inst

10.3%

96.5M

2026-08-21

Công ty Cổ Phần Tư Vấn Và Đầu Tư Kinh Bắc

Inst

8.5%

65.3M

2023-12-27

Đặng Thanh Tâm

Indiv

5.5%

52.1M

2026-06-30

Quỹ Đầu Tư Hạ Tầng PVI

Inst

5.3%

50.0M

2025-06-27

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Vinatex - Tân Tạo

Inst

5.2%

49.2M

2026-07-22

Phạm Thị Lê

Indiv

4.9%

19.6M

2014-04-21

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VPBank

Inst

4.8%

45.0M

2026-07-03

Quách Thị Nga

Indiv

3.8%

15.0M

2014-04-21

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Sài Gòn VRG

Inst

3.5%

16.9M

2012-03-15

Sầm Thị Hường

Indiv

2.6%

10.3M

2014-04-21

Nguyễn Thị Kim Thanh

Indiv

2.3%

8.4M

2026-06-30

beira limited

Inst

2.2%

10.5M

2016-09-23

CTBC Vietnam Equity Fund

Inst

2.2%

17.0M

2024-01-15

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellchaft, London Branch

Inst

2.1%

9.9M

2016-09-23

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ đầu tư SGI

Inst

1.6%

15.4M

2025-06-24

amersham industries limited

Inst

1.5%

11.8M

2024-10-11

Đặng Nguyễn Quỳnh Anh

Indiv

1.4%

13.3M

2026-06-30

Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited

Inst

1.2%

8.9M

2024-10-11

Norges Bank

Inst

1.0%

8.0M

2024-10-11

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý Quỹ PVI

Inst

0.8%

7.8M

2026-06-22

CTCP Sài Gòn Xây dựng

Inst

0.6%

2.9M

2009-11-16

Wareham Group Limited

Inst

0.6%

4.4M

2024-10-11

Công ty Cổ phần Sản xuất và Phát triển Xây dựng Cửu Long

Inst

0.5%

2.3M

2009-11-16

DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company

Inst

0.4%

3.2M

2024-10-11

Grinling International Limited

Inst

0.3%

2.1M

2024-10-11

Tổng Công ty Du lịch Sài Gòn

Inst

0.2%

900,000

2009-11-16

Samsung Vietnam Securities Master Investment Trust

Inst

0.1%

768,000

2024-05-31

Board & Management

Đặng Thanh Tâm5.5%

Chairman of Management Board

Đặng Nguyễn Quỳnh Anh1.4%

Member of Management Board

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hương

Member of Management Board/General Director

Phạm Phúc Hiếu

Deputy General Director/Chief Accountant/Spokesman

Phan Anh Dũng

Deputy General Director

Top connections

DLD50.8%DSP49.0%SGH38.9%NTC20.0%TDB14.1%XHC11.4%PVR8.2%CSM5 links FUEVFVND6.9%SGT3 links HTV6.0%ITA5.5%

Listed group

SGTCông ty Cổ phần Công nghệ Viễn thông Sài Gòn
Associate: 20% or more held
21.5%
2026-06-30

Read from the shareholder lists: control above 50% of the shares (VAS 25), significant influence at 20% or more (VAS 07). Each date is that of the disclosure.

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: 1 by 1 trader; 1 without a stated volume
Purchase registrations: 5 by 5 traders; 28,000,000 shares · 2 without a stated volume

Công ty Cổ phần Phát Triển Xanh Bền Vững Châu Á Thái Bình Dương
Purchase · Institution
10,000,000
2026-07-24
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VPBank
Sale · Institution
—
2026-07-03
Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Vinatex - Tân Tạo
Purchase · Institution
10,000,000
2026-06-25
Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý Quỹ PVI
Purchase · Institution
—
2026-06-22
Nguyễn Thị Kim Thanh
Purchase · Related person
8,000,000
2026-06-01
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VPBank
Purchase · Institution
—
2026-04-15

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

KBC among Real Estate

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Listed group

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

KBC among Real Estate

Ownership network

Listed group

Director-deal registrations · 12 months