Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 1.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 1.368
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.3%51st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.17×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 4Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting-stretching signals: a Beneish M-Score of 4.5174 (98th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +4.27, and an Altman Z-Score of 0.48 in the distress zone. Offsetting signals include a high accruals-quality (97.9/100) and perfect receivables-quality (100/100), but very weak cash-conversion and margin-quality scores (0.0/100 each) and an Earnings-Quality composite of 52.3/100.
- Beneish M-Score 4.5174: measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight financial ratios; this score lies at the 98th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and rose by +4.27 year-over-year, indicating a recent material shift in the M-Score trajectory.
- Altman Z-Score 0.48: measures distance to bankruptcy; 0.48 is in the distress zone and implies low bankruptcy distance under the Altman model.
- Very high SGI component = 10.0000 of the Beneish model: Sales Growth Index (SGI) of 10 indicates extremely rapid revenue growth year-over-year, which is one of the inputs that can inflate M-Score and warrants attention to revenue recognition.
- TATA (total accruals) 0.0053 in the Beneish components: while small, the combination of other signals suggests earnings quality issues despite low reported total accruals.
- Director-deal registrations: one sale registration for 12,483,000 shares (net registered volume -24.05% of shares outstanding) recorded between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades, but the registered volume is large relative to share count.
- Accruals quality 97.9/100: indicates reported accruals behave more like cash over the measurement period, which supports the reported earnings' link to cash flows.
- Receivables quality 100.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle 2.2% of total assets (52nd percentile): receivables and related long-term receivables are a small share of assets relative to peers, reducing concern about off-cycle receivables manipulation.
- Earnings-Quality 52.3/100: a midrange composite that reflects mixed signals; not uniformly poor.
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9: measures fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 6 is neutral-to-healthy and suggests some fundamental resilience despite other stresses.
Ownership is concentrated: an individual, Trần Thị Thắm, holds 24.1%, and three other significant holders together hold material stakes (PVI fund 8.2%, OGC 6.0%, a court enforcement office 5.7%, and an individual 5.6%). This concentration and the presence of a court enforcement office as a top holder indicate potential governance and control considerations.
- Compare the FY2021 schedule or note for 'Receivables and long-term receivables' to confirm the 2.2% of total assets split between trade receivables, prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables.
- Reconcile the cash-flow statement (operating cash flows) against profit before tax and the notes on accruals to validate the Accruals quality (97.9/100) and the Cash conversion (0.0/100) discrepancy.
- Review the revenue recognition notes and the breakdown of sales growth to understand the components driving SGI = 10.0000 (very high sales growth) and whether growth relates to core operations, related-party transactions, or one-off items.
- Inspect the ownership and related-party disclosures and the register/note on director and insider transactions to see the details behind the 12,483,000-share sale registration and whether the registrant is the 24.1% holder or another insider.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.11
- P/S
- —
- ROE
- −0.3%
- ROA
- −0.2%
- EPS
- −28
- BVPS
- 8.806
- Gross Margin
- 0.0%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- 0.03
- Current Ratio
- 1.43
- Profit Growth
- +19.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 51.9M
- Charter Capital
- 519B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT