Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 16.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 19.617
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.1420th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 23.4%92nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.3015 (83rd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.97, signalling that its accounting profile has become more aggressive relative to peers. Earnings-quality sub-scores show severe weaknesses in cash conversion and revenue quality (0.0/100 each) and low margin quality (10.7/100), while receivables quality is strong (100.0/100); the Altman Z-Score is 2.95 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -1.3015 (83rd Vietnam percentile; YoY change +1.97): the company sits well above most Vietnamese peers on the Beneish metric and the M-Score has moved materially year-over-year, indicating a shift in accounting-related signals rather than stable historical behaviour.
- Asset-quality index (AQI) = 3.6548: a high AQI indicates a rising share of non-core assets (e.g. non-operating receivables, long-term receivables, prepayments) relative to total assets, consistent with the 23.4% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 23.4% of total assets (92nd Vietnam percentile): an unusually large portion of assets is in prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables rather than trade receivables — this shifts asset composition away from ordinary operating items.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.14 (20th Vietnam percentile): reported profits are not being converted into operating cash flow on a multi-year basis, which is reflected in the Earnings Quality overall (36.3/100) and the Cash conversion sub-score (0.0/100).
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 10.7/100: these scores indicate weak quality of reported revenue and margins — potential volatility or one-off components in reported top-line and profitability.
- TATA (total accruals / total assets) = 0.1049 (10.49%): non-cash accruals are a material share of the balance sheet, which can magnify earnings that are not cash-backed.
- DSRI = 0.6068 (Days Sales Receivable Index <1): a DSRI below 1 means receivables grew less than sales (or were written down), which combined with the large non-trade receivables balance calls for scrutiny of the composition of receivables.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100: standard trade receivables appear to be of good quality in isolation, indicating collectible trade receivables where disclosed.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent reported no net loss in the last three years: the statutory balance-sheet indicators show the company is not in an accumulated-loss position and has positive equity.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9: while not strongly positive, this is a neutral signal rather than outright operational deterioration, and some fundamental checks (profitability, liquidity, leverage) are not uniformly weak.
- SGI = 0.8983 and DEPI = 0.8496: revenue growth is not aggressive (SGI <1) and the rate of depreciation has not slowed (DEPI <1), which reduces one common motive for earnings inflation via slower depreciation.
Shareholding is concentrated: institutional investors hold ~37.1% (VAC Việt Nam 25.7% and Bảo Việt fund 11.4%), and three individuals together hold 27.8% (Nguyễn Hoàng Hải 11.3%, Nguyễn Việt Anh 8.4%, Trần Thị Thu Hà 8.1%). This mix implies meaningful block ownership and potential influence by large shareholders or related-party group interests.
- Compare the line(s) for 'prepayments', 'loans and advances to customers/related parties' and 'other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 balance-sheet note to the 23.4% figure flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle and reconcile movements year-over-year.
- Reconcile operating cash flow (cash-flow statement) to reported net profit for FY2023–FY2025 to see drivers of the 3-year cash conversion ratio of -0.14 and identify the largest non-cash adjustments and working-capital movements.
- Inspect the related-party disclosures and the schedules for receivables/loans to related parties to determine whether a material portion of the 23.4% non-trade receivables is intercompany or related-party financing.
- Read the auditor's report and the notes on significant accounting policies (particularly revenue recognition, measurement of receivables and classification of prepayments/loans) for any emphasis-of-matter, qualification, or policy changes that would affect revenue- and accrual-related quality scores.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.87
- P/S
- 0.72
- ROE
- 16.9%
- ROA
- 9.7%
- EPS
- 3.081
- BVPS
- 19.211
- Gross Margin
- 14.1%
- Net Margin
- 13.2%
- D/E
- 0.41
- Current Ratio
- 1.42
- Rev Growth
- −10.0%
- Profit Growth
- +23.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 16.18
- Div Yield
- 6.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 21.1M
- Charter Capital
- 211B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng gia dụng
- Sub-industry
- Thiết bị gia dụng
- Company Type
- CT