Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 11.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 11.340
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.8%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.8138th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.4%42nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.5515, above the US -1.78 cutoff but in the 79th percentile versus Vietnamese peers, and it moved +1.03 year-over-year, suggesting accounting-related signals are more aggressive than most domestic peers and have trended toward more aggressive readings. Earnings-quality metrics show particular weakness in cash conversion (0.0/100) and accruals quality (31.7/100), while receivables quality is strong (100.0/100); solvency and basic fundamentals are mixed: Altman Z-Score = 3.37 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (neutral).
- M-Score = -1.5515 (Beneish measure combining eight ratios that indicates likelihood of earnings manipulation in U.S. samples); company ranks in the 79th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and the M-Score increased by +1.03 year-over-year (the direction of change is a secondary signal).
- Earnings-Quality Score = 39.6/100, with Accruals quality = 31.7/100 (low accrual-quality suggests earnings rely more on accruals than cash).
- Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and three-year operating cash flow / net profit = 0.81 (38th percentile), indicating profits are not converting into cash at a rate typical of the local sample.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) component in the Beneish pattern = 0.2060 (part of the M-Score and allied with the low accruals quality), which can signal sizeable accruals relative to assets.
- AQI (asset quality index) = 1.2452 and GMI (gross margin index) = 1.1403 (AQI >1 and GMI >1 contribute to higher M-Score and may reflect asset write-downs or margin deterioration respectively).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.4% of total assets (42nd percentile), showing that receivables and non-trade receivable items are small relative to assets and well-reported in the schedule/notes.
- DSRI (days sales in receivables index) = 0.6614, indicating receivables are not expanding faster than sales (this lowers one manipulation-related sub-score).
- SGAI (sales, general & administrative index) = 0.8848 and DEPI (depreciation index) = 0.8924 (both <1), which reduce M-Score pressure from rising SG&A or slowing depreciation policies.
- Altman Z-Score = 3.37 (places the company in the 'safe' zone for bankruptcy distance under that model) and no accumulated losses or statutory loss-test triggers in FY2025 (the audited statements do not meet the listed exchange statutory-loss criteria).
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam holds 69.8% (state-owned conglomerate), with the next largest institutional holder at 0.7%. This dominant state-linked shareholding implies group and state-ownership influence over governance and related-party arrangements common in Vietnamese listed groups.
- Compare the FY2025 line for 'Receivables from related parties' and the notes on 'Other long-term receivables' to confirm the 1.4% of total assets figure and the composition of receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and parent-net-profit in the cash flow statement and management discussion to verify the three-year operating-cash-flow / net-profit ratio of 0.81 and explanations for cash/non-cash timing differences.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the depreciation note to assess the drivers of DEPI = 0.8924 and whether depreciation policy changes are disclosed.
- Review related-party transaction disclosures and the notes to the statement of changes in owners' equity for group transfers, guarantees or intra-group balances given the 69.8% holding by Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.87
- P/S
- 0.34
- ROE
- 11.2%
- ROA
- 6.4%
- EPS
- 1.455
- BVPS
- 13.052
- Gross Margin
- 16.2%
- Net Margin
- 4.4%
- D/E
- 0.48
- Current Ratio
- 2.01
- Rev Growth
- +8.1%
- Profit Growth
- −3.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.39
- Div Yield
- 10.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 113M
- Charter Capital
- 1,129B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT