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NFC

Công ty Cổ phần Phân lân Ninh Bình

VietnamCyclicalsHóa chấtHNXCT
49.500
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
−4.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
49.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
47.424

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hóa chất→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Hóa chất” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→38.39B
Fair EV/EBITDA→8.2x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→49.500
Calibrated value vs last close→−4.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
47.424
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA38.4 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·398345282308225224214295254215281306245
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·799010109136227111915
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1000000000.20.2000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·4560106113497466677951424234
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·1.00.80.8420.20.330.70.9220.9
Net Inventories
·253196166185167137143226172156226227186
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·253196166185167137143226172156226227186
Other current assets
·100.080.090.40.40.20.20.30.20.821910
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000000.1
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·148812131824161810121618
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·00.0100.030.030.030.10.20.10.1000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·00.0100.030.030.030.10.20.10.1000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·138711131823151710121617
Tangible fixed assets
·13871112172214168111517
Leased assets
·0000.40.60.912110.30.40.5
Intagible fixed assets
·0.010.070.10.200000.010.030.0500
Other non-current assets
·10.50.40.30.90.30.40.70.60.40.50.50.6
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·10.50.40.30.90.30.40.70.60.40.40.40.5
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·413353290320239242238311271225293322263
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·851288512253605512985419511259
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·851288512253605512884409511259
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0032776292566200638338
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·27821.0211128151250.001.0
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·00000.20.30.50.90.41.000.070.2
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00000.20.30.50.90.41.000.070.2
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·328225205198186182183182186184198210204
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·328225205198186182183182186184198210204
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·157157157157157157157157157157105105105
Other Reserves
·0.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.9420.04
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·22181512121212121212615328
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·148503227161113121614295054
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·413353290320239242238311271225293322263
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·157157157157157157157157157157105105105

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
38
Weak
Accrual Quality
19
Cash Conversion
19
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
20
Revenue Quality
50

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.19 · 85th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.66
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.557
GMI
0.624
AQI
1.540
SGI
1.356
DEPI
1.469
SGAI
1.247
TATA
0.257
LVGI
0.567

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.1050th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.2%15th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows mixed signals: a Beneish M‑Score of -1.192 (85th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) and a year‑over‑year rise of +2.66 indicate accounting metrics moving toward more aggressive patterns relative to peers, while the earnings‑quality composite is poor at 38.4/100 with especially weak accruals (19.0/100) and cash conversion (18.7/100). Offsetting indicators include a high Altman Z‑Score of 12.45 (safe zone) and a Piotroski F‑Score of 7/9 (relatively strong fundamentals), and statutory loss tests are not met in the published statements for FY2025.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score = -1.192 (measures a combination of variables intended to flag earnings manipulation; this company sits at the 85th percentile among Vietnamese peers, meaning it is more aggressive than ~85% of peers on those metrics).
  • Year‑over‑year M‑Score change = +2.66 (measures the trajectory in the composite; a large positive change suggests the accounting profile has shifted materially this year relative to last).
  • AQI (quality of accruals) = 1.5402 (component of the M‑Score; values >1 indicate higher accruals or lower accrual quality and here drive part of the elevated M‑Score).
  • DEPI = 1.4686 and LVGI = 0.5667 (DEPI >1 suggests inventory accounting or depreciation profile changed toward lower depreciation or higher gross margins; LVGI <1 can indicate lower asset growth in the denominator — both are M‑Score components contributing to the aggressive signal).
  • Earnings‑quality subcomponents: accruals quality 19.0/100 and cash conversion 18.7/100 (these measures show net profit is not well supported by cash flow and accruals appear weak).
  • Cash conversion (3‑year OCF / net profit) = 1.10 (50th percentile among Vietnamese non‑financials; this middling result means profit is not being consistently converted into operating cash at a strong rate).
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z‑Score = 12.45 (measures distance to bankruptcy; this value lies in the safe zone, indicating low bankruptcy risk per the metric).
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 7/9 (measures nine signals of accounting and operating strength; a 7 indicates generally healthy fundamentals on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.2% of total assets (15th percentile among Vietnamese peers; this low figure indicates little exposure to long‑term receivables, prepayments to suppliers or loans receivable that sit outside normal trade).
  • Revenue quality = 50.4/100 and receivables quality = 100.0/100 (these suggest reported revenue and receivables patterns are not the principal immediate concern in the earnings‑quality decomposition).
  • No accumulated losses, owner’s equity (ex‑minority) positive, and zero years of parent net loss through FY2025 (these are favorable balance‑sheet and net‑income continuity facts in the published statements).
Ownership Risk

Shareholding is concentrated: Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam holds 51.0% and Công ty TNHH Hoàng Ngân 16.3%, so two institutions control 67.3% combined; a substantial 10.0% is held by an individual (Phạm Mạnh Ninh). Director‑deal registrations in the past year show 2 purchase registrations totaling 610,000 shares (net registered volume +3.88% of shares outstanding) and 0 sale registrations — these are exchange filings of trading intent, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 statement of cash flows (operating cash flow line) with consolidated profit after tax to reproduce the 3‑year cash conversion ratio and inspect the notes to cash flow for one‑off timing items.
  • Inspect the note(s) on receivables, prepayments and loans to related parties to verify the 0.2% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and check counterparty names and maturities.
  • Review the inventory and depreciation policies and the fixed‑assets note to assess drivers of DEPI = 1.4686 (changes in depreciation rates, revaluations, or inventory write‑downs).
  • Examine the auditor’s report and the statutory loss test disclosures in the annual audited financial statements to confirm that none of the Decree 155/2020 (as amended) loss criteria are met for FY2025.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
12.45
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.18
Negative
Composite
40
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.14×Turnover3.00×Leverage1.26=ROE42.3%
Price Risk
Momentum
−6.2%
Volatility
73.7%
Max Drawdown
−34.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.61P/E
P/B
2.37
P/S
0.63
ROE
50.2%
ROA
36.2%
EPS
8.823
BVPS
20.850
Gross Margin
26.6%
Net Margin
11.2%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
4.70
Rev Growth
+36.5%
Profit Growth
+219.9%
EV/EBITDA
3.98
Div Yield
4.0%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
15.7M
Charter Capital
157B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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