Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 55.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 53.364
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 44.5%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.1451st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.7%28th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.7082 (90th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +3.02, which signals that BFC’s accounting profile has become more aggressive relative to Vietnamese peers even though the absolute US-calibrated -1.78 cutoff is not met. Earnings-quality metrics are weak (Earnings Quality 14.3/100) driven by very low cash conversion (0.0/100) and poor receivables and accruals measures, while solvency distance is strong (Altman Z-Score 4.27) and the statutory loss tests for the exchange are not met.
- Beneish M-Score -0.7082, Vietnam peer percentile 90th and YoY change +3.02 — the score has moved materially relative to peers this year, indicating rising earnings-management indicators (note the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam).
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 1.2398 — receivables are growing faster than sales, a classic signal of revenue recognition or collection timing risk.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.1928 — gross margins have deteriorated year-over-year, which can incentivize margin-supporting accounting choices.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.2852 — unusually high accruals relative to assets, consistent with the very low accruals-quality subscore (15.3/100).
- Earnings Quality = 14.3/100 and Cash conversion = 0.0/100 — operating cash flow is not supporting reported profits over the three-year measure, which is a concern for the convertibility of reported earnings into cash.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 — weak fundamental score indicating limited improvement in profitability, liquidity, or operational efficiency metrics used by Piotroski.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.27 — places the company in the 'safe zone' for bankruptcy distance, indicating a comfortable solvency buffer by that model's inputs.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.9926 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.9778 — no strong signs from these indices of aggressive capitalization or depreciation policy shifts.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.7% of total assets (28th percentile among Vietnamese peers) — relatively low level of long-term or non-trade receivables compared with peers.
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent entity reported no net loss in the most recent year — the statutory tests for loss-triggered delisting are not met.
Shareholding is highly concentrated: Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam holds 65.0%, indicating dominant state-owned group control. Individual insiders listed hold negligible stakes (0.3% and smaller). No director-deal registrations were provided in the supplied data (director-deal registrations are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades).
- Compare the note(s) on related-party transactions and loans in the annual report to the 0.7% receivables outside the trade cycle to identify the counterparties and terms.
- Reconcile the consolidated cash flow statement (operating cash flow) with net profit to confirm the components driving the three-year cash-conversion ratio (reported 1.14).
- Inspect the schedule or note on accruals and other current liabilities to trace the composition and drivers of TATA = 0.2852 and the low accruals-quality score.
- Review the revenue note and trade receivables aging to verify the drivers of DSRI = 1.2398 and the revenue-quality subscore (36.9/100).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.36
- P/S
- 0.31
- ROE
- 23.5%
- ROA
- 8.6%
- EPS
- 5.420
- BVPS
- 24.162
- Gross Margin
- 12.5%
- Net Margin
- 3.8%
- D/E
- 0.81
- Current Ratio
- 1.46
- Rev Growth
- +13.3%
- Profit Growth
- −13.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.41
- Div Yield
- 4.4%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 57.2M
- Charter Capital
- 572B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT