Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 20.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 21.335
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.7169th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.4%20th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The forensic indicators show a mixed picture: the Beneish M-Score is 1.2322 and ranks at the 96th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) with a year-over-year rise of +6.71, signalling a notable upward movement in the manipulation-related composite. At the same time, cash-conversion metrics and some earnings-quality components are weak (three-year cash conversion 1.71; cash-conversion subscore 3.8/100) while solvency and fundamentals look healthy (Altman Z-Score 3.42 in the safe zone; Piotroski F-Score 7/9).
- Beneish M-Score 1.2322 (96th VN peer percentile): the M-Score combines eight variables to flag earnings manipulation risk; this company scores high versus Vietnamese peers and has a substantial year-over-year increase of +6.71, indicating an abrupt change in the underlying components.
- Very low cash-conversion component: Earnings-quality cash-conversion subscore 3.8/100 and three-year operating-cash-flow / net-profit = 1.71 (69th percentile among VN peers) — this measures how effectively reported profits turn into operating cash and here the conversion is weak.
- High Asset Quality Index (AQI) 8.5904: AQI measures the proportion of intangible/other non-current charges and reclassifications; an elevated AQI can indicate reclassifications or non-cash adjustments affecting earnings.
- Total Accruals to Assets (TATA) 0.1339: positive TATA indicates accruals are boosting reported earnings (this measures the change in non-cash working capital and other accruals relative to assets).
- SGA Index (SGAI) 0.7814 <1 but Sales Growth Index (SGI) 1.3226 >1: SGI >1 shows revenue growth (32.26%); SGAI <1 suggests selling/administrative expenses grew slower than sales — a mixed signal that can reflect cost leverage or expense capitalization/timing.
- Receivables-related signal strong: Receivables outside the trade cycle are only 0.4% of total assets (20th percentile among VN peers). This metric captures prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables — low values reduce concern about off-cycle receivables.
- Receivables quality score 100.0/100: the earnings-quality component for receivables shows no detected deterioration in receivable-driven revenue recognition.
- Solvency and fundamental strength: Altman Z-Score = 3.42 (in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance) and Piotroski F-Score = 7/9 (indicating several positive operating and balance-sheet signals).
- No accumulated losses and no recent parent net losses: retained earnings are positive and the parent reported a net loss in 0 consecutive years up to FY2025 — these are statutory balance-sheet facts that reduce certain regulatory accounting concerns.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam holds 67.1% and Công ty TNHH Hoàng Ngân holds 24.5%, together accounting for over 91% of shares. This large institutional/control ownership plus a small free-float (individuals together <5%) implies decision-making and related-party dynamics are likely dominated by the controlling group.
- Compare the FY2025 statement of cash flows (operating cash flows) with the parent profit (income statement) to reconcile the three-year operating cash flow / net profit trend and identify the drivers of the 1.71 ratio.
- Inspect the notes for receivables, prepayments and loans receivable to confirm that items outside the trade cycle equal ~0.4% of total assets and to classify any related-party balances.
- Review the reconciliation or movement schedule for non-current assets and intangible assets (and any reclassification notes) to understand the components behind AQI = 8.5904 and any large non-cash adjustments.
- Examine the consolidated and parent-company accruals/working-capital schedules to trace the components of TATA = 0.1339 (changes in inventories, payables, other accruals) and SGA line items to reconcile SGAI = 0.7814 versus SGI = 1.3226.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.16
- P/S
- 0.47
- ROE
- 28.9%
- ROA
- 14.9%
- EPS
- 4.525
- BVPS
- 17.460
- Gross Margin
- 25.3%
- Net Margin
- 10.6%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.63
- Rev Growth
- +32.8%
- Profit Growth
- +167.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 1.05
- Div Yield
- 5.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 37.7M
- Charter Capital
- 377B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT