Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 15.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 16.379
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.5%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.9574th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.8%55th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.1843 and sits at the 86th percentile versus Vietnamese peers, with a year-over-year increase of +2.08; this places the company toward the more aggressive-accounting side of the Vietnamese distribution though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly decisive. Earnings-quality composite is 68.5/100 with high accruals and receivables quality (89.9/100 and 100.0/100) but very low margin and revenue quality (4.5/100 and 0.0/100). Solvency and fundamentals are mixed-to-healthy: Altman Z-Score 6.82 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score 6/9 (neutral-to-favourable).
- Beneish peer percentile 86th: the M-Score -1.1843 ranks at the 86th percentile among Vietnamese peers, indicating more aggressive accounting relative to most listed Vietnamese companies.
- Year-over-year M-Score change +2.08: the M-Score has moved upward by +2.08 from the prior year, showing a notable trajectory change (Beneish M-Scores have low serial correlation, so the change is a secondary cue).
- High AQI 3.4428: the Asset Quality Index (AQI = 3.4428) measures the relative growth in non-operating and long-term assets; a value well above 1 can signal rising investment in asset categories that historically associate with earnings manipulation risk.
- DEPI 1.6168 and LVGI 1.2402: DEPI (depreciation index = 1.6168) > 1 indicates slower reported depreciation relative to prior year (possible change in useful lives or depreciation policies), and LVGI (leverage index = 1.2402) > 1 indicates rising leverage.
- SGI 1.6711: sales growth index = 1.6711 shows material revenue growth; combined with Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 4.5/100, the composition of revenue and margins deserves scrutiny.
- Revenue quality 0.0/100 and Margin quality 4.5/100: these very low component scores measure how much reported revenue and margins reflect persistent, high-quality performance; the figures indicate weak signals on whether reported top-line and margins are sustainable.
- Cash-conversion (3-year OCF / net profit) = 1.95 (74th percentile): operating cash flow is almost twice reported profit over three years, and the position in the 74th percentile indicates the company is relatively less effective than peers at converting profit into cash.
- TATA 0.0252: total accruals to total assets (TATA = 0.0252) is small and positive, indicating low measured aggregate accruals in the period (TATA measures the extent of accrual-based earnings versus cash-based earnings).
- DSRI 0.7119: days sales receivable index < 1 (DSRI = 0.7119) indicates receivables are not growing faster than sales; consistent with Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and the low reported receivables outside the trade cycle (2.8% of assets).
- GMI 0.6461 and SGAI 0.6998: gross margin index (GMI = 0.6461) < 1 and SGA index (SGAI = 0.6998) < 1 suggest improving gross margins and proportionally lower selling/general/admin expenses relative to sales versus prior year.
- Altman Z-Score 6.82: the Z-Score of 6.82 places the company in the 'safe' zone on bankruptcy-distance metrics, indicating distance from conventional distress signals.
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9: a F-Score of 6 indicates generally neutral-to-healthy operating/fundamental performance across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency checks.
Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam (a state-owned chemical conglomerate) holds 64.0% of shares, giving a dominant controlling stake; other institutional and individual holdings are small (The Golden Group 1.7%; largest individuals 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.2%). Director-deal registrations were not supplied in the data provided (director registrations are intentions recorded with the exchange when present).
- Compare the FY2025 note on ‘long-term receivables / prepayments’ to the balance-sheet line for ‘receivables outside the trade cycle’ (reported 2.8% of total assets) and reconcile related-party counterparties if any are named.
- Reconcile the consolidated operating cash flow (cash-flow statement) for the last three years against consolidated net profit to confirm the 3-year cash-conversion ratio = 1.95; trace major non-cash and working-capital adjustments in the cash-flow notes.
- Read the accounting-policy note for depreciation and useful lives to understand the drivers of DEPI = 1.6168 (changes in depreciation rates, method, or asset reclassifications).
- Check the revenue-recognition note, schedules of sales by segment/customer and the related-party-transactions disclosure to investigate why Revenue quality = 0.0/100 despite strong sales growth (SGI = 1.6711).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.03
- P/S
- 0.41
- ROE
- 31.2%
- ROA
- 23.9%
- EPS
- 4.318
- BVPS
- 15.503
- Gross Margin
- 16.7%
- Net Margin
- 11.2%
- D/E
- 0.05
- Current Ratio
- 3.22
- Rev Growth
- +66.6%
- Profit Growth
- +261.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 1.11
- Div Yield
- 5.7%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 146M
- Charter Capital
- 1,461B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT