XPH

Công ty Cổ phần Xà phòng Hà Nội

VietnamConsumerHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngHàng cá nhânUPCOMCT

13.000

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+1.4%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 13.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 13.180

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.910

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.10%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

11.10%

Growth Estimate

historical blend8.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→61.87M

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→13.000

Calibrated value vs last close→+1.4%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

13.180

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)11.10%

Growth rate8.00%growth method: historical blend

Base cash flow61.9 triệuone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	5.0%	6.5%	8.0%	9.5%	11.0%
9.1%	13.885	13.885	13.885	13.885	13.885
10.1%	13.885	13.885	13.885	13.885	13.885
11.1%	13.885	13.885	13.885	13.885	13.885
12.1%	13.885	13.885	13.885	13.885	13.885
13.1%	13.885	13.885	13.885	13.885	13.885

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

XPH among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, XPH marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is XPH. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	46	40	46	60	62	74	72	70	73	68	61	66	89
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	2	2	2	4	2	8	6	0.6	2	3	45	7	7
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	19	16	20	14	4	20	49	43	63	50	0	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	8	5	5	15	22	20	9	19	3	10	8	31	44
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	1	2	1	1	3	5	3	16	0.1	0.3	0.6	1	1
Net Inventories	·	16	16	18	24	29	24	7	5	5	4	3	25	33
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	21	22	22	26	29	24	8	6	5	4	3	25	33
Other current assets	·	1	1	1	2	4	3	2	1	1	2	4	2	5
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.2	0.03
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	105	108	109	114	119	125	127	133	139	146	153	159	166
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	24	28	29	33	37	49	54	60	66	74	81	87	94
Tangible fixed assets	·	24	28	29	33	37	40	45	50	56	63	70	70	76
Intagible fixed assets	·	0	0	0	0	0	9	10	10	10	10	11	11	11
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71
Investments in associate companies	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	71
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	0
Other non-current assets	·	9	9	9	10	10	4	1	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.5	1
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	9	9	9	10	10	4	1	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.8
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	151	148	156	173	180	199	200	202	212	214	214	224	255
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	7	3	4	3	3	5	6	3	2	4	5	6	29
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	7	3	4	3	3	5	6	3	2	4	5	6	29
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	14
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0.02	0.03	0.4	0.01	0.01	0.4	0.02	0.05	0.2	0.09	0.01	0.03	0
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0	0	0	0	0
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	145	145	152	170	177	194	193	199	210	210	210	219	227
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	145	145	152	170	177	194	193	199	210	210	210	219	227
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	96	96	96	96	96	96	96	96	96	96	96	95	95
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	−81	−81	−74	−55	−48	−32	−32	−26	−16	−16	−16	−7	−0.04
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	151	148	156	173	180	199	200	202	212	214	214	224	255
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

75th–90th

M −1.07 · 87th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +1.51

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.667

GMI

1.750

AQI

0.981

SGI

2.593

DEPI

0.870

SGAI

0.432

TATA

0.024

LVGI

1.866

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 0.9%33rd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: 0.62×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows mixed accounting signals: the Beneish M-Score is -1.0651 (87th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.51, indicating relatively more aggressive accounting metrics versus peers and a recent upward trajectory. Beneish components show strong revenue growth and leverage signals (SGI 2.5933, LVGI 1.8665, GMI 1.7502) but low total accruals (TATA 0.0239). Earnings-quality subscores are split: very low cash conversion and margin/revenue quality (0.0/100 each) but high accruals and receivables quality (90.5/100 and 100.0/100). Altman Z-Score is 17.98 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).

Red Flags

M-Score: -1.0651; Vietnam peer percentile 87th and YoY change +1.51 — the absolute score is above the US -1.78 cutoff but in Vietnam context the high peer percentile and positive YoY move indicate relatively more aggressive accounting metrics compared with local peers.
Earnings-quality: Cash conversion 0.0/100 — the company shows extremely weak conversion of accrual earnings into operating cash flows according to the earnings-quality metric.
Earnings-quality: Margin quality 0.0/100 and Revenue quality 0.0/100 — metrics indicate deterioration or low quality in reported margins and revenue sustainability.
Beneish components: GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.7502 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 2.5933 — large changes in margins and very high reported sales growth can be drivers of aggressive accounting signals.
Beneish component LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.8665 — rising leverage relative to peers can affect earnings quality and the M-Score.
Vietnam checks: Accumulated losses = 0.62x paid-in capital — the company has accumulated losses equal to 62% of paid-in capital, a balance-sheet fact that merits attention in filings.

Positive Signals

Altman Z-Score = 17.98 — places the company well within the ‘safe’ zone on the bankruptcy-distance metric used by Altman.
Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 — a middle (neutral) score on fundamentals; not strongly deteriorated on the nine-point checklist.
Earnings-quality: Accruals quality 90.5/100 and Receivables quality 100.0/100 — these indicate that accrual accounting and receivables patterns (as measured by the earnings-quality model) appear high-quality relative to the model’s benchmarks.
Beneish TATA (Total Accruals) = 0.0239 — low aggregate accruals in the Beneish formula, which typically reduces manipulation signal from abnormal accruals.

Ownership Risk

Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam (a state-owned chemical group) holds 80.0% of shares, indicating very high ownership concentration and likely group/state influence over corporate decisions. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data (registrations are exchange filings of intended trades rather than executed trades).

To check in the filings

Compare the FY2025 note(s) that detail 'prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables' with the balance-sheet line for receivables outside the trade cycle (0.9% of total assets) to confirm classification and counterparty disclosure.
Reconcile the cash-flow statement (operating cash flows) with reported profit and the working-capital movements to verify the low cash-conversion signal (Cash conversion 0.0/100) and identify the components driving poor cash conversion.
Inspect the revenue and margin disclosure (sales by product/customer, segment notes and recognition policy) to understand drivers of SGI = 2.5933 and GMI = 1.7502 and to validate revenue-quality and margin-quality concerns.
Check the equity notes and the statement of changes in equity for details supporting 'Accumulated losses = 0.62x paid-in capital' and verify statutory disclosures about solvency; also confirm the listing status (company trades on UPCoM) with respect to statutory loss-test rules referenced (Decree 155/2020 and amendments).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

17.98

Safe Zone

Sharpe

−0.24

Negative

Composite

Below 30

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✓Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden0.08×Op. Margin0.00×Turnover0.65×Leverage1.05=ROE0.0%

Price Risk

Momentum

−6.4%

Volatility

84.3%

Max Drawdown

−27.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

4475.38P/E

P/B: 1.14
P/S: 1.67
ROE: 0.0%
ROA: 0.0%
EPS: 3
BVPS: 11.145
Gross Margin: 13.0%
Net Margin: 0.0%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 7.10
Rev Growth: +160.0%
Profit Growth: +100.5%
EV/EBITDA: —
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 13.0M
Charter Capital: 130B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3): Hàng cá nhân
Sub-industry: Hàng cá nhân
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for XPH. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam

Inst

80.0%

10.4M

2024-12-31

Trương Văn Minh

Indiv

0.1%

16,083

2017-12-31

Board & Management

Nghiêm Minh Long

Member of Management Board

Top connections

SVG98.2%DHB97.7%LAS80.0%HVT80.0%VAF80.0%SFG80.0%BFC80.0%CSV80.0%DDV80.0%PAC80.0%CSM80.0%NFC80.0%

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

XPH among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Ownership network

XPH among Consumer