Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.140
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −5.255th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.1%50th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.4725 (80th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers; the M-Score moved by -0.66 year-over-year. The earnings-quality profile is weak (27.5/100) driven by near-zero cash conversion and revenue quality, while receivables quality is strong (100/100). Solvency and earnings signals are mixed: Altman Z = 1.85 (grey zone) and Piotroski F = 3/9 (weak).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.4725 (80th Vietnam percentile). The Beneish score aggregates eight ratios to flag unusual accounting patterns; against Vietnamese peers this places SFG toward the more aggressive side of the domestic distribution, and the M-Score fell by -0.66 year-over-year, indicating the accounting profile has moved.
- Earnings-quality overall 27.5/100. The company scores very poorly on cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue quality (0.0/100), meaning reported profits are not converting into operating cash and there are weaknesses in revenue sustainability metrics.
- Three-year cash conversion = -5.25 (5th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). This ratio (operating cash flow / net profit, three-year aggregate) indicates profit has not translated into cash and is extreme relative to peers.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9. Low F-score implies weak fundamental signals across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.85 (grey zone). This Z-Score measures distance from bankruptcy using working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value, and sales; 1.85 is inside the grey zone for financial distress.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100. The receivables-quality component indicates the receivables profile appears strong relative to the measures used (aging, allowance behavior, size relative to assets).
- DSRI = 0.5159 (Days' sales in receivables index). A DSRI below 1 points to receivables growing more slowly than sales (or receivables declining), which reduces a common manipulation pathway.
- SGAI = 0.7567 (Selling, general & admin index below 1). Lower SGAI suggests SGA expenses did not grow faster than sales, which can indicate no aggressive capitalization or expense inflation through SG&A.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; net loss (parent) in 0 consecutive years up to FY2025. These statutory and balance-sheet facts show the company is not in an accumulated-loss position under the published statements.
The largest shareholder is Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam with 65.0% (state conglomerate), showing strong concentration and likely group or state influence. Two other institutional holdings at 5.0% each and two small individual holdings are present. No director-deal registrations were provided in the input (registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the consolidated operating cash flow and parent net profit lines in the FY2025 cash flow statement and the notes to reconcile the three-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit).
- Inspect the receivables and other long-term receivables notes: quantify prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and ‘other long-term receivables’ that make up the 2.1% of total assets flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the related-party disclosures and the note(s) on group/company transactions to see whether the large state shareholder or group entities appear in sales, purchases, advances, loans or guarantees.
- Check the depreciation and fixed-asset notes together with the revenue breakdown to evaluate the DEPI = 1.0156 and whether depreciation policies or asset revaluations changed year-over-year.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.73
- P/S
- 0.23
- ROE
- 4.9%
- ROA
- 2.0%
- EPS
- 669
- BVPS
- 13.754
- Gross Margin
- 8.1%
- Net Margin
- 1.6%
- D/E
- 1.49
- Current Ratio
- 1.38
- Rev Growth
- +29.3%
- Profit Growth
- +7.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 14.67
- Div Yield
- 5.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 47.9M
- Charter Capital
- 479B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT