Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 11.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 13.166
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −65.151st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.7%46th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting and cash-quality concerns: a very high Beneish M-Score of 5.7692 (99th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a large year-over-year increase of +6.59, an Altman Z-Score of 1.22 (distress zone) and an Earnings-Quality score of 20.1/100 driven by extremely poor accruals (0.3/100) and cash conversion (0.0/100). At the same time, receivables outside the trade cycle are modest at 1.7% of total assets and there are no accumulated statutory loss triggers in the published statements.
- Beneish M-Score = 5.7692 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns); this is at the 99th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting relative to VN peers) and rose by +6.59 year-over-year (the trajectory is a secondary concern). Note: the usual -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferable to VN, so peer percentile and YoY change are emphasized.
- Earnings-Quality Score = 20.1/100 (measures overall quality of reported earnings). Subcomponents: Accruals quality = 0.3/100 (very poor accrual quality) and Cash conversion = 0.0/100 (operating cash flow not supporting reported profits).
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, FY2023–FY2025) = -65.15 (0th percentile among VN non-financials), indicating profits are not being converted into operating cash.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.22 (measures bankruptcy distance; this is in the 'distress' zone).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 9.5662 in the Beneish components (measures revenue growth; a high SGI can be associated with pressure to manage earnings), and SGAI = 2.7571 (sales, general & admin growth index) — both contribute to the elevated M-Score.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.3979 (measures accrual intensity of earnings) and AQI = 0.6317 (asset quality index), both signalling aggressive accruals/asset treatment versus peers.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.7% of total assets (46th percentile among VN peers) — not unusually large relative to peers; this figure captures prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables outside normal trade receivables.
- Receivables quality subscore = 100.0/100 in the Earnings-Quality components (measures whether revenues are supported by receivables behaviour).
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — the statements do not show statutory loss triggers under the cited decrees.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures fundamental financial health; a neutral score rather than strongly negative).
A single institution, Tổng Công ty Đầu tư Phát triển Nhà và Đô thị, holds 51.0% (majority control). Other named shareholders are materially smaller (largest individuals: 5.1%, 3.1%, 1.2%; a mutual fund at 0.4%). This indicates concentrated control via an institutional majority owner (consistent with many listed groups or state-influenced structures in Vietnam).
- Compare the operating cash flow line in the cash flow statement (FY2023–FY2025) with parent net profit to verify the reported three-year cash conversion ratio of -65.15.
- Inspect the notes/schedules for receivables, 'loans and receivables to related parties' and 'prepayments to suppliers' to confirm the 1.7% of total assets labeled as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Examine the notes on accruals, depreciation and other non-cash adjustments (the consolidated statement of cash flows and accounting policies) to reconcile TATA = 0.3979 and accruals-quality = 0.3/100.
- Check the audited balance-sheet equity reconciliation and the auditor’s report to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that the statutory loss tests cited (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e), as amended) are not met in the published audited statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.94
- P/S
- 2.30
- ROE
- 3.4%
- ROA
- 0.8%
- EPS
- 345
- BVPS
- 12.335
- Gross Margin
- 33.5%
- Net Margin
- 6.8%
- D/E
- 2.57
- Current Ratio
- 2.39
- Rev Growth
- +856.6%
- Profit Growth
- +396.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 36.16
- Div Yield
- 4.1%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 55.0M
- Charter Capital
- 550B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT