VCG
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu và Xây dựng Việt Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 15.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 19.096
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.8%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.5164th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 24.5%93rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.6767 (75th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.48, signalling that its accounting is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has recently moved toward more aggressive signals. Key component drivers include a high DSRI (1.6806) and elevated SGI (1.2487) and DEPI (1.1887). Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: accruals quality is relatively strong (86.9/100) but receivables and margin quality score 0/100 and overall earnings-quality score is low at 39.1/100. The Altman Z-Score is 2.09 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -1.6767 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation based on 8 accounting ratios) and ranked at the 75th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher percentile = more aggressive accounting than most Vietnamese firms). Note year-over-year change +1.48 (the accounting profile has moved materially compared with prior year).
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 1.6806 (measures growth in receivables relative to sales; values >1 suggest receivables growing faster than sales).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 24.5% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; 93rd percentile among Vietnamese non-financials), indicating large non-trade receivable balances.
- Receivables quality score = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 17.7/100 (these measure whether reported revenues and receivables are supported by cash flows and normal trade patterns).
- Cash conversion three-year ratio = 1.51 (operating cash flow / net profit; 64th percentile — higher percentile here indicates profit not converting well to cash; values near or above 1.0 often show weak cash conversion relative to reported profit in this dataset).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.2487 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.1887 (SGI >1 shows sales growth; DEPI >1 indicates slower reported depreciation or longer useful lives compared with prior year, which can boost reported profit).
- Altman Z-Score = 2.09 (measures distance to bankruptcy; 2.09 places the company in the 'grey zone' where financial distress risk is neither low nor extreme).
- Accruals quality = 86.9/100 (measures quality of accruals relative to cash flows; a high score suggests accruals are not the main driver of reported profit).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0328 (measures discretionary accruals; a relatively small positive number indicates limited total accruals on the balance sheet).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.4267 (measures proportion of non-current assets and intangibles; values <1 can indicate asset base not being increased via capitalization of expenses — here it is below 1).
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (measures nine fundamental signals; a 6 is a neutral-to-moderately healthy score, showing some underlying operational/financial strength).
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are not met — these are factual positives in the published statements.
The listed group shows concentrated control: the company controls multiple subsidiaries (e.g., 71.1% of VCC, 55.1% of VC1, 51.1% of ND2, 51.0% of VAV) and holds several 20%-25% stakes (VIW 25.0%, BDT 24.1%, GTD 24.0%), indicating an extensive group structure. Top shareholders include an institutional holder with 45.1% (Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Pacific Holdings) and several foreign institutional names (Vietnam Enterprise Investments Ltd 2.0%, Norges Bank 1.1%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the data (director-deal registrations are exchange filings of intended trades, not executed trades).
- Compare the 2025 line items for 'Receivables' and the notes for 'Prepayments and other receivables' to quantify the 24.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparties and related parties.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit in the 2023–2025 cash flow statements and the notes to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio of 1.51 (check the components of operating cash flow: change in working capital, non-cash items, and one-off items).
- Review the fixed-asset and depreciation notes to confirm the components behind DEPI = 1.1887 (check for changes in useful lives, revaluations, or capitalization policies that would affect depreciation expense).
- Inspect related-party and group-structure disclosures (subsidiaries, associates, loans to/from related parties) to trace the large intra-group ownership (for example, the schedules showing ownership in VCC, VC1, ND2, VAV, VIW, BDT, GTD) and any intercompany receivables or prepayments.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.91
- P/S
- 0.64
- ROE
- 37.6%
- ROA
- 12.1%
- EPS
- 5.670
- BVPS
- 17.536
- Gross Margin
- 14.1%
- Net Margin
- 24.1%
- D/E
- 0.59
- Current Ratio
- 1.46
- Rev Growth
- +24.8%
- Profit Growth
- +324.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.09
- Div Yield
- 4.6%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 698M
- Charter Capital
- 6,982B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT