Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 29.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 36.127
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 18 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.1024th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.1%7th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows accounting signals that are mixed: the Beneish M-Score is -0.636 (Vietnam peer percentile 90th) with a year-over-year increase of +1.61, indicating its accrual and revenue patterns are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers; the DSRI (2.2289) is notably high, while TATA (total accruals) is modest at 0.1160. At the same time, solvency and basic fundamentals look strong: Altman Z-Score 12.95 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score 7/9.
- Beneish M-Score -0.636 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns; this level is above the US -1.78 cutoff but that cutoff is US-calibrated—against Vietnamese peers the company sits at the 90th percentile, meaning it is more aggressive in this sample).
- Year-over-year M-Score change +1.61 (measures change in the manipulative-signaling mix; a large positive change indicates the accounting profile has moved materially versus prior year).
- DSRI 2.2289 (Days' Sales in Receivables Index — measures receivables growth relative to sales; a value well above 1 suggests receivables or revenue recognition grew faster than sales, consistent with revenue-inflation risk).
- Earnings-quality sub-scores show weak cash-related quality: Cash conversion 8.0/100 (measures ability of reported profit to convert into operating cash), and Receivables quality 0.0/100 (measures collectibility and composition of receivables), both indicating low cash realization versus earnings.
- Earnings Quality overall 30.4/100 (composite measure of accruals, cash conversion, receivables and revenue quality), signaling low overall earnings quality by the applied metrics.
- TATA 0.1160 (Total accruals to assets — measures accrual intensity) is modest, suggesting accruals are not extreme in absolute terms.
- SGI 1.1593 (Sales Growth Index — measures sales growth; moderate growth rather than hyper-growth) and Revenue quality 62.6/100 (measures consistency and sustainability of reported revenue) support that reported revenue is not entirely anomalous.
- Altman Z-Score 12.95 (measures distance to bankruptcy) is in the safe zone, indicating low near-term insolvency risk under that model.
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 (measures profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency) indicates generally strong accounting fundamentals.
Ownership is highly concentrated and state-linked: Uỷ Ban Nhân Dân Thành Phố Hồ Chí Minh and Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Bà Rịa - Vũng Tàu together are shown at 51.0% (the same percentage listed twice, indicating substantial public-sector control), with Công ty Cổ phần Khu công nghiệp Hố Nai holding 22.9% and Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư New Asia 11.9%. No director-deal registrations were provided in the input (registrations, when present, are intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the change in trade receivables and the disclosures on revenue recognition in the notes: verify the components behind DSRI = 2.2289 (sales vs receivables movement).
- Reconcile operating cash flow and profit: trace the three-year operating cash flow / net profit ratio (0.10) to the cash flow statement and the profit breakdown to understand low cash conversion drivers.
- Inspect the receivables and other receivables / advances schedule to confirm the 0.1% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle and check whether there are related-party loans or long-term items.
- Review the statutory tests and equity notes that support the statement that accumulated losses are none and that no statutory loss triggers (Decree 155/2020 as amended) are met in the audited FY2025 statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.62
- P/S
- 3.40
- ROE
- 14.3%
- ROA
- 13.0%
- EPS
- 2.558
- BVPS
- 18.139
- Gross Margin
- 25.6%
- Net Margin
- 29.7%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 7.10
- Rev Growth
- +15.9%
- Profit Growth
- +21.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 14.85
- Div Yield
- 5.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 19.3M
- Charter Capital
- 193B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Nhựa, cao su & sợi
- Company Type
- CT