Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 34.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 35.451
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 18 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.8339th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 48.3%98th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M‑Score is -0.3302 (92nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +1.87, indicating its accounting metrics are comparatively more aggressive within Vietnam though the absolute US-calibrated cutoff (-1.78) is not met. Major signals include a very high proportion of receivables/out‑of‑cycle assets (48.3% of total assets, 98th percentile) and a high AQI (3.5966); offsetting strengths include a low total accruals measure (TATA 0.0289), an Altman Z‑Score of 9.14 (well into the safe zone) and an Earnings Quality score of 57.9/100 with strong accruals quality (88.5/100).
- Beneish M‑Score -0.3302 (92nd percentile vs VN peers) and YoY change +1.87 — the score is high relative to Vietnamese companies and has moved materially year‑over‑year; Beneish components driving the M‑Score include DSRI 2.1569 and AQI 3.5966.
- Days‑Sales Receivables Index (DSRI) = 2.1569 — measures receivables relative to sales; a value >1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales, consistent with collection or revenue recognition risk.
- AQI (1 + abnormal quality index) = 3.5966 — measures changes in receivables, inventory and gross margin; a high value signals unusual accruals or quality issues contributing to the M‑Score.
- Receivables/outside‑trade‑cycle assets = 48.3% of total assets (98th percentile) — indicates large balances classified as prepayments, loans receivable or other long‑term receivables relative to peers, which can obscure operating cash flows and revenue recognition.
- Earnings‑quality component: Receivables quality = 0.0/100 — directly flags concerns about the composition or collectability of receivables.
- Cash conversion (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.83 (39th percentile) — profit is converting into cash less effectively than many peers, a potential liquidity/earnings quality concern.
- TATA (total accruals) = 0.0289 — measures accruals relative to assets; a low value suggests reported earnings are not dominated by accruals.
- DEPI = 0.2882 — depreciation index <1 indicates depreciation policies or asset write‑downs are not inflating margins relative to prior periods.
- SGAI = 0.8504 and SGI = 0.9671 — selling, general & administrative expense index and sales growth index close to or below 1, showing no unusually rapid SG&A growth or aggressive growth‑driven accounting.
- Altman Z‑Score = 9.14 (safe zone) — distance to bankruptcy metric indicates ample buffer relative to failure thresholds.
- Earnings Quality overall = 57.9/100 with accruals quality 88.5/100 and margin quality 66.4/100 — points to some reliable elements in reported earnings despite the receivables concern.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 4/9 — a neutral signal on fundamental accounting/operational performance (neither strongly distressing nor strongly favourable).
Ownership is concentrated in institutions: Tổng Công ty Bến Thành 30.6%, Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư New Asia 28.7%, Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại Thiên Hải 19.4% (three institutions together hold ~78.7%). No individual retail‑free float majority is shown; this concentrated institutional ownership and the presence of a listed group may make related‑party transactions and intra‑group receivables/prepayments more likely in the filings.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) explaining ‘prepayments to suppliers’, ‘loans receivable’ and ‘other long‑term receivables’ to the balance sheet: reconcile the 48.3% of total assets figure and list counterparties, maturities and related‑party flags.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and profit & loss: verify the 3‑year cash conversion (0.83) by checking cash flows from operating activities across the three years against net profit.
- Inspect the related‑party disclosures and group‑company schedules for transfers, guarantees or intra‑group financing that could explain large receivable/prepayment balances or abnormal AQI (3.5966).
- Review the auditor’s report and any emphasis‑of‑matter or going‑concern paragraphs, and the parent company equity / retained earnings notes to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that owner’s equity (ex‑minority) is positive.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.40
- P/S
- 3.77
- ROE
- 17.2%
- ROA
- 14.8%
- EPS
- 2.603
- BVPS
- 15.910
- Gross Margin
- 43.4%
- Net Margin
- 25.7%
- D/E
- 0.10
- Current Ratio
- 3.80
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.19
- Div Yield
- 2.6%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 9.9M
- Charter Capital
- 99.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Du lịch và Giải trí
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Du lịch & Giải trí
- Sub-industry
- Nhà hàng và quán bar
- Company Type
- CT