GIL
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Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 8.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.481
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −12.193rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.0%67th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.3455 (82nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.54, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that the accounting profile has recently moved. Earnings-quality indicators are weak on cash and receivables (cash conversion 0.0/100; receivables quality 0.0/100) while margin quality is relatively strong (83.9/100). The Altman Z-Score is 2.10 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.3455, Vietnam peer percentile = 82nd; the score is above the US -1.78 cutoff but that cutoff is US-calibrated — in Vietnam ~28% exceed -1.78, so the high peer percentile and the YoY change (+1.54) are the stronger cues that accounting measures have become more aggressive recently.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 1.3287, which measures increases in receivables relative to sales; a DSRI >1 indicates receivables growing faster than sales and can signal revenue recognition or credit-extension pressure.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.5077, which measures growth in non-current/long-term assets relative to total assets; AQI >1 suggests increased capitalization of costs or growth in long-term receivables/prepayments.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1683, indicating relatively high accruals (the measure of accruals-based earnings); higher positive TATA can signal earnings managed through accruals.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.4096, indicating rising leverage (long-term liabilities or debt increasing relative to assets) compared with the base year.
- Earnings-quality components: Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100 — both score at the bottom of the scale, and the three-year cash-conversion metric is -12.19 (3rd percentile among Vietnamese non-financials), showing profits have not converted into operating cash flow.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.0% of total assets (67th percentile) — a non-trivial share of assets held as prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables that sit outside normal trade receivables.
- Altman Z-Score = 2.10 (grey zone) — intermediate distance from bankruptcy risk, not in the safe zone.
- Year-over-year M-Score change = +1.54; Beneish scores have low year-to-year correlation (0.06), so a large positive change is a meaningful secondary signal of changing accounting behaviour.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9031 (below 1). GMI <1 indicates gross margins have improved versus the base year, which is a stabilizing sign for margin-related pressure.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.8929 (below 1) — depreciation expense has not been reduced relative to the base year; DEPI <1 implies no apparent slowing of depreciation to inflate earnings.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 0.8068 (below 1) — operating overheads have not expanded relative to sales, which reduces one common pressure point for manipulation.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0038 (≈1) — nil-to-low sales growth removes an obvious motive to aggressively manage revenue to show growth.
- Margin quality = 83.9/100 and Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (neutral) — margins look comparatively healthy and fundamentals are neither strongly positive nor strongly negative.
Top shareholders are concentrated among individuals and one listed corporate: Lê Hùng 8.9%, ABT (Bến Tre fishing exporter) 7.5%, Lê Anh Thư 7.1%, Pxp Vietnam Fund 4.9%, and Nguyễn Phương Đông 4.7%. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data; the ownership mix shows meaningful insider/related-party stakes plus a corporate strategic shareholder (ABT), which can be associated with related-party transactions in VAS-context group structures.
- Compare the FY2025 notes on ‘Receivables and prepayments’ with the trade receivables schedule — reconcile the 5.0% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparty and related-party flags in the note.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit across the last three years in the cash-flow statement and management discussion to confirm the three-year cash-conversion metric of -12.19 and to see drivers of negative conversion (changes in working capital, one-off items, etc.).
- Review the fixed-asset and intangible-asset notes and the depreciation policy to confirm why DEPI = 0.8929 and whether there have been changes in capitalization or useful lives that feed the AQI = 1.5077 and TATA = 0.1683 accrual level.
- Examine the related-party transactions and loans/advances note (including any schedules to the financial statements) for material prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables that explain the elevated DSRI (1.3287) and the receivables-outside-trade-cycle balance.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.35
- P/S
- 1.23
- ROE
- 1.3%
- ROA
- 0.9%
- EPS
- 309
- BVPS
- 24.463
- Gross Margin
- 22.8%
- Net Margin
- 5.1%
- D/E
- 0.37
- Current Ratio
- 6.56
- Rev Growth
- +0.3%
- Profit Growth
- +16.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 23.90
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 102M
- Charter Capital
- 1,016B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT