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VietnamCyclicalsHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngHàng cá nhânHOSECT
8.500
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+23.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
8.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
10.481

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng May mặc→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Hàng May mặc” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→223.74B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.2x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→8.500
Calibrated value vs last close→+23.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
10.481
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA223.7 tỷyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·3,1222,7712,8733,4923,1532,1611,5441,4861,125721732728595···
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·333484675759762587392267204146264267104···
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·4392802229974793574317633213···
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·3622724372831,023630382308482113152176278···
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·18915111878879542221712281459···
Net Inventories
·1,9161,6471,3641,254749511642844398427283253176···
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1,9161,6471,3641,254749511642848402427283253176···
Other current assets
·72881751991407585503431312925···
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000022···
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·676491484496613548354357362369195204372···
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·223292926220.90.80.0200···
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·223292926220.90.80.0200···
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·231238249256259185139123133137131158177···
Tangible fixed assets
·207212222227230164130114123127117126126···
Intagible fixed assets
·252628292921991010141415···
Investment in properties
·000000000000122···
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·2245472212215515819519419481329···
Investments in associate companies
·22222222122155158001940011···
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·023250000195194081318···
Goodwill
·0000000000033···
Other non-current assets
·34916915417218816327242730373041···
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·272774647352926232730342940···
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·3,7983,2623,3573,9883,7662,7091,8981,8431,4871,090927931966···
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1,1487018141,4772,1551,4191,0621,134927638536553604···
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·4764326411,3302,0851,4161,0591,131924631526527457···
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·30077120664941765579694544448395373319···
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·15334529312928107250.54···
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·67226917214771333371026148···
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·671267170143680000481920···
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·2,6502,5612,5442,5121,6101,290836709560452391379341···
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·2,6502,5612,5442,5121,6101,290836709560452391379341···
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·1,0161,016700690432360240191139139139139139···
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·20263136414646464646463535···
Other Reserves
·0.20.10.30.10.40.30.20.50.30.8000···
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·8518281,1231,0918856614133352391308113092···
Minority Interest
·000000000000.221···
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·3,7983,2623,3573,9883,7662,7091,8981,8431,4871,090927931966···
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.30.300000000000···
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·1,0161,016700690432360240191139139139139139···
Good will (Bn. VND)
·76921081241411300000300···
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·16585838358270.80.80.80.8300···

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
23
Poor
Accrual Quality
42
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
84
Revenue Quality
21

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.35 · 83rd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.54
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.329
GMI
0.903
AQI
1.508
SGI
1.004
DEPI
0.893
SGAI
0.807
TATA
0.168
LVGI
1.410

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−12.193rd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
5.0%67th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.3455 (82nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.54, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that the accounting profile has recently moved. Earnings-quality indicators are weak on cash and receivables (cash conversion 0.0/100; receivables quality 0.0/100) while margin quality is relatively strong (83.9/100). The Altman Z-Score is 2.10 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.3455, Vietnam peer percentile = 82nd; the score is above the US -1.78 cutoff but that cutoff is US-calibrated — in Vietnam ~28% exceed -1.78, so the high peer percentile and the YoY change (+1.54) are the stronger cues that accounting measures have become more aggressive recently.
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 1.3287, which measures increases in receivables relative to sales; a DSRI >1 indicates receivables growing faster than sales and can signal revenue recognition or credit-extension pressure.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.5077, which measures growth in non-current/long-term assets relative to total assets; AQI >1 suggests increased capitalization of costs or growth in long-term receivables/prepayments.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1683, indicating relatively high accruals (the measure of accruals-based earnings); higher positive TATA can signal earnings managed through accruals.
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.4096, indicating rising leverage (long-term liabilities or debt increasing relative to assets) compared with the base year.
  • Earnings-quality components: Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100 — both score at the bottom of the scale, and the three-year cash-conversion metric is -12.19 (3rd percentile among Vietnamese non-financials), showing profits have not converted into operating cash flow.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.0% of total assets (67th percentile) — a non-trivial share of assets held as prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables that sit outside normal trade receivables.
  • Altman Z-Score = 2.10 (grey zone) — intermediate distance from bankruptcy risk, not in the safe zone.
  • Year-over-year M-Score change = +1.54; Beneish scores have low year-to-year correlation (0.06), so a large positive change is a meaningful secondary signal of changing accounting behaviour.
Positive Signals
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9031 (below 1). GMI <1 indicates gross margins have improved versus the base year, which is a stabilizing sign for margin-related pressure.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.8929 (below 1) — depreciation expense has not been reduced relative to the base year; DEPI <1 implies no apparent slowing of depreciation to inflate earnings.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 0.8068 (below 1) — operating overheads have not expanded relative to sales, which reduces one common pressure point for manipulation.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0038 (≈1) — nil-to-low sales growth removes an obvious motive to aggressively manage revenue to show growth.
  • Margin quality = 83.9/100 and Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (neutral) — margins look comparatively healthy and fundamentals are neither strongly positive nor strongly negative.
Ownership Risk

Top shareholders are concentrated among individuals and one listed corporate: Lê Hùng 8.9%, ABT (Bến Tre fishing exporter) 7.5%, Lê Anh Thư 7.1%, Pxp Vietnam Fund 4.9%, and Nguyễn Phương Đông 4.7%. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data; the ownership mix shows meaningful insider/related-party stakes plus a corporate strategic shareholder (ABT), which can be associated with related-party transactions in VAS-context group structures.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 notes on ‘Receivables and prepayments’ with the trade receivables schedule — reconcile the 5.0% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparty and related-party flags in the note.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit across the last three years in the cash-flow statement and management discussion to confirm the three-year cash-conversion metric of -12.19 and to see drivers of negative conversion (changes in working capital, one-off items, etc.).
  • Review the fixed-asset and intangible-asset notes and the depreciation policy to confirm why DEPI = 0.8929 and whether there have been changes in capitalization or useful lives that feed the AQI = 1.5077 and TATA = 0.1683 accrual level.
  • Examine the related-party transactions and loans/advances note (including any schedules to the financial statements) for material prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables that explain the elevated DSRI (1.3287) and the receivables-outside-trade-cycle balance.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.10
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−1.51
Negative
Composite
49
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.62×Interest Burden1.20×Op. Margin0.07×Turnover0.19×Leverage1.43=ROE1.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
−47.5%
Volatility
48.1%
Max Drawdown
−59.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
27.99P/E
P/B
0.35
P/S
1.23
ROE
1.3%
ROA
0.9%
EPS
309
BVPS
24.463
Gross Margin
22.8%
Net Margin
5.1%
D/E
0.37
Current Ratio
6.56
Rev Growth
+0.3%
Profit Growth
+16.5%
EV/EBITDA
23.90
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
102M
Charter Capital
1,016B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng cá nhân
Sub-industry
Hàng May mặc
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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