LAF
Công ty Cổ phần Chế biến Hàng Xuất khẩu Long An
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 17.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 21.979
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.7837th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.0%62nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The accounting signals show elevated indicators of aggressive revenue and receivable recognition versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -0.4327 (91st percentile vs Vietnam) with a year-over-year increase of +2.61, driven by a high DSRI (1.5303) and LVGI (1.7452). At the same time, cash-generation and earnings-quality metrics are weak (Earnings-Quality 10.1/100; Cash conversion and Receivables quality both 0.0/100), while solvency/operating-health gauges are mixed (Altman Z-Score 2.42 in the grey zone; Piotroski F-Score 3/9).
- Beneish M-Score -0.4327 (91st percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +2.61). The M-Score aggregates multiple ratios to flag earnings manipulation risk; the high Vietnam percentile and rising trajectory are notable even though the US -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated.
- DSRI 1.5303. Days-sales-in-receivables index >1 suggests receivables (or sales recognition) are growing faster than sales, consistent with potential revenue/collection timing issues.
- LVGI 1.7452. Leverage index increase >1 indicates the company’s leverage rose relative to the prior year, which can pressure income statement presentation.
- AQI 0.8148 and TATA 0.2723 (total accruals to total assets). Low AQI but positive TATA indicate accruals remain present — accrual behaviour is non-trivial and accrual quality component scores are low (Accruals quality 17.0/100).
- Earnings-Quality 10.1/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100. Operating cash flow does not convert reported profits into cash, and receivable-related metrics score at the bottom.
- Revenue quality 0.0/100 and SGAI 0.6094 (selling, general & admin expense index <1) combined with SGI 1.3220 (sales growth index >1) — rapid sales growth with low revenue-quality score can indicate aggressive revenue recognition or revenue that is hard to convert into margin.
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9. Weak fundamental-score components (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency indicators) suggest fundamentals are not supporting the accounting signals.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.78 (37th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). The company’s reported profits are not being fully converted into operating cash relative to most peers.
- DEPI 1.1649 (depreciation index >1). This indicates depreciation rate did not fall materially relative to prior year — less evidence of slowing depreciation to inflate profits.
- AQI 0.8148 <1 (and SGAI 0.6094 <1). Some expense-related indices are not expanding unusually; SGA expenses have not grown faster than sales, which can be a normal efficiency signal.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.0% of total assets (62nd percentile). Non-trade receivables/prepayments are present but relatively moderate versus peers.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; zero years of net loss at parent up to FY2025. These are accounting facts supporting solvency and continued listing-status tests.
PAN (Tập đoàn PAN) controls 77.9% of the company (disclosed 2026-06-30), indicating a concentrated, parent-controlled listed group (PAN also holds large stakes in ABT and FMC). Top three non-parent shareholders are small: Phan Ngọc Sơn 4.1%, New-S Securities 4.0%. This block-controlled structure raises the importance of group-level transactions, related-party flows and disclosures in the consolidated statements.
- Compare the growth in trade receivables and days-sales outstanding (note/schedule for receivables) year-over-year and reconcile to the DSRI component (DSRI = 1.5303).
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit in the cash-flow statement and the accruals note to confirm drivers of Cash conversion = 0.78 and TATA = 0.2723.
- Inspect the related-party disclosures and notes on loans/advances to affiliates for amounts classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (4.0% of total assets).
- Review depreciation and amortisation schedules and accounting policy notes to confirm the basis and consistency behind DEPI = 1.1649 and the low AQI/Accruals-quality scores.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.12
- P/S
- 0.47
- ROE
- 15.9%
- ROA
- 8.4%
- EPS
- 2.635
- BVPS
- 16.926
- Gross Margin
- 15.4%
- Net Margin
- 6.5%
- D/E
- 1.07
- Current Ratio
- 1.37
- Rev Growth
- +32.9%
- Profit Growth
- −10.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.70
- Div Yield
- 7.9%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 15.2M
- Charter Capital
- 152B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Thực phẩm
- Company Type
- CT