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Công ty Cổ phần Chế biến Hàng Xuất khẩu Long An

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngSản xuất thực phẩmHOSECT
17.900
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+22.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
17.900
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
21.979

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.678
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.08%
Ke
10.08%
x
E/(D+E)
70.85%
+
Kd(1-t)
3.00%
x
D/(D+E)
29.15%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.22%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→84.71B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→17.900
Calibrated value vs last close→+22.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
21.979
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate4.22%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow84.7 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.2%2.7%4.2%5.7%7.2%
8.0%24.40524.40524.40524.40524.405
9.0%22.69422.69422.69422.94524.405
10.0%22.33922.33922.33922.69422.694
11.0%21.97921.97921.97921.97921.979
12.0%20.90220.90220.90221.67621.979
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·443262230305189128183146395279231152106··
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·149613251242532137213029··
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·3457202,168131313130.0113411187,948··
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·106523346282852434653483033··
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·2314777912566748··
Net Inventories
·2851321852311207311277181871599040··
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·2851321852311207311285188871599240··
Other current assets
·51263322221.0225··
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000000.5··
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·14110410298907970686167748883··
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·114837581736158544445515565··
Tangible fixed assets
·114827481736158544344515446··
Intagible fixed assets
·0.60.9100.010.030.080.10.20.20.080.618··
Investment in properties
·0000.010.020.040.060.0722400··
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·00.060.060.060.060000001517··
Investments in associate companies
·000000000001515··
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·00.060.060.060.0600000002··
Other non-current assets
·1112141613111113162018180.9··
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·1011131513111113162018180.9··
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·584366332404280208253214456346305240189··
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·32711911021783491199727617015411374··
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·32411610821481461169527216514911374··
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·2779691169572988832531411297451··
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·30.080.000.40.40.360.50.30.70.211.0··
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·333333334550.030.03··
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·258247222187196159134116180176151127115··
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·258247222187196159134116180176151127115··
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·152152147147147147147147147147147147147··
Foreign Currency Difference reserve
·0000008000000··
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0000000505050505040··
Other Reserves
·0000000000000.2··
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1059574404911−46−105−42−46−71−95−107··
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·584366332404280208253214456346305240189··
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0500000000000··
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·152152147147147147147147147147147147147··

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
10
Poor
Accrual Quality
17
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
39
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M −0.43 · 91st pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.61
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.530
GMI
1.436
AQI
0.815
SGI
1.322
DEPI
1.165
SGAI
0.609
TATA
0.272
LVGI
1.745

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.7837th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
4.0%62nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The accounting signals show elevated indicators of aggressive revenue and receivable recognition versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -0.4327 (91st percentile vs Vietnam) with a year-over-year increase of +2.61, driven by a high DSRI (1.5303) and LVGI (1.7452). At the same time, cash-generation and earnings-quality metrics are weak (Earnings-Quality 10.1/100; Cash conversion and Receivables quality both 0.0/100), while solvency/operating-health gauges are mixed (Altman Z-Score 2.42 in the grey zone; Piotroski F-Score 3/9).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -0.4327 (91st percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +2.61). The M-Score aggregates multiple ratios to flag earnings manipulation risk; the high Vietnam percentile and rising trajectory are notable even though the US -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated.
  • DSRI 1.5303. Days-sales-in-receivables index >1 suggests receivables (or sales recognition) are growing faster than sales, consistent with potential revenue/collection timing issues.
  • LVGI 1.7452. Leverage index increase >1 indicates the company’s leverage rose relative to the prior year, which can pressure income statement presentation.
  • AQI 0.8148 and TATA 0.2723 (total accruals to total assets). Low AQI but positive TATA indicate accruals remain present — accrual behaviour is non-trivial and accrual quality component scores are low (Accruals quality 17.0/100).
  • Earnings-Quality 10.1/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100. Operating cash flow does not convert reported profits into cash, and receivable-related metrics score at the bottom.
  • Revenue quality 0.0/100 and SGAI 0.6094 (selling, general & admin expense index <1) combined with SGI 1.3220 (sales growth index >1) — rapid sales growth with low revenue-quality score can indicate aggressive revenue recognition or revenue that is hard to convert into margin.
  • Piotroski F-Score 3/9. Weak fundamental-score components (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency indicators) suggest fundamentals are not supporting the accounting signals.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.78 (37th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). The company’s reported profits are not being fully converted into operating cash relative to most peers.
Positive Signals
  • DEPI 1.1649 (depreciation index >1). This indicates depreciation rate did not fall materially relative to prior year — less evidence of slowing depreciation to inflate profits.
  • AQI 0.8148 <1 (and SGAI 0.6094 <1). Some expense-related indices are not expanding unusually; SGA expenses have not grown faster than sales, which can be a normal efficiency signal.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.0% of total assets (62nd percentile). Non-trade receivables/prepayments are present but relatively moderate versus peers.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; zero years of net loss at parent up to FY2025. These are accounting facts supporting solvency and continued listing-status tests.
Ownership Risk

PAN (Tập đoàn PAN) controls 77.9% of the company (disclosed 2026-06-30), indicating a concentrated, parent-controlled listed group (PAN also holds large stakes in ABT and FMC). Top three non-parent shareholders are small: Phan Ngọc Sơn 4.1%, New-S Securities 4.0%. This block-controlled structure raises the importance of group-level transactions, related-party flows and disclosures in the consolidated statements.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the growth in trade receivables and days-sales outstanding (note/schedule for receivables) year-over-year and reconcile to the DSRI component (DSRI = 1.5303).
  • Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit in the cash-flow statement and the accruals note to confirm drivers of Cash conversion = 0.78 and TATA = 0.2723.
  • Inspect the related-party disclosures and notes on loans/advances to affiliates for amounts classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (4.0% of total assets).
  • Review depreciation and amortisation schedules and accounting policy notes to confirm the basis and consistency behind DEPI = 1.1649 and the low AQI/Accruals-quality scores.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.42
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.22
Negative
Composite
68
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden0.97×Op. Margin0.08×Turnover1.05×Leverage2.27=ROE15.6%
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.3%
Volatility
54.6%
Max Drawdown
−33.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.21P/E
P/B
1.12
P/S
0.47
ROE
15.9%
ROA
8.4%
EPS
2.635
BVPS
16.926
Gross Margin
15.4%
Net Margin
6.5%
D/E
1.07
Current Ratio
1.37
Rev Growth
+32.9%
Profit Growth
−10.7%
EV/EBITDA
6.70
Div Yield
7.9%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
15.2M
Charter Capital
152B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Thực phẩm
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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