ELC
Công ty Cổ phần Công nghệ - Viễn thông ELCOM
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 11.240
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF lets growth fade more slowly than in any other sector, recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.
Technical details
Tech firms combine high growth potential with current profitability that peers can benchmark. Pure DCF could overvalue if growth assumptions are too aggressive. The P/E blend acts as a market-calibrated anchor, while the PEG-based cap prevents paying excessive multiples.
DCF: 10-year FCF projection with growth capped at 20%, fading more slowly than in any other sector toward the sector's long-run growth rate. P/E: 5-year median P/E capped at dynamic ceiling (growth x 1.5, max 30). Blend: 60% DCF + 40% P/E.
Technology and IT companies where high growth potential must be balanced against the risk of speculative overvaluation.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.2219th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 12.8%85th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows mixed forensic signals: the Beneish M-Score is -0.722 (Vietnam peer percentile 89th, year-over-year change +2.18), indicating accounting measures that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and a meaningful upward move versus last year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 34.9/100) with especially poor cash conversion and revenue quality, but solvency/ distress metrics are comfortable (Altman Z-Score 3.32 in the ‘safe’ zone) and receivables measures look strong on the accrual side.
- Beneish M-Score = -0.722 with Vietnam peer percentile 89th and YoY change +2.18: the score is higher (more aggressive) than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially year-over-year; note the -1.78 US cutoff is not VN-calibrated.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.7145: gross margins have deteriorated relative to the prior year, a component of the M-Score that often precedes accounting pressure.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.8968 and SGAI (SG&A Index) = 0.5078 (SGAI < 1 but high SGI): rapid sales growth (SGI ~1.90) combined with notable changes in SG&A can stress controls and give scope for aggressive recognition; revenue-quality = 0.0/100 and margin-quality = 32.2/100 reinforce concerns on the income-statement side.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1737 and Earnings Quality accruals = 40.3/100: total accruals are relatively large (TATA ~17.4% of assets), indicating a material gap between accounting profit and cash flows.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.22 (19th percentile among Vietnamese peers): reported profits are not being converted into operating cash, a classic earnings-quality concern.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 12.8% of total assets (85th percentile): a relatively large portion of assets classified outside the normal trade receivables cycle (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables) which can hide related-party flows or non-core claims.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100: on the receivables-quality metric itself the company scores very well, suggesting trade receivables aging/collectibility (as measured by that score) is strong.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.7792 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.8397: AQI < 1 and DEPI < 1 indicate no obvious build-up of slow-moving/other noncurrent assets or unusually low depreciation pressure compared with the prior year.
- Altman Z-Score = 3.32 (safe zone): the company is a comfortable distance from bankruptcy risk under the Altman model.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral): fundamentals are neither strongly positive nor deeply negative by the Piotroski checklist, and there are no accumulated losses or statutory loss triggers (Decree tests) in the published statements.
Ownership is moderately dispersed: largest individual shareholder holds 5.1% (Phan Chiến Thắng) and several institutional and broker-shareholders hold around 5% each (Vietnam Equity Holding 5.0%, Nguyễn Mạnh Hải 5.0%, SSI 5.0%, Samarang UCITS 4.9%). Director-deal disclosures show registered insider activity in 2025–10–30 to 2026–10–30 with seven sale registrations (7 traders; 6,342,000 shares) and six purchase registrations (2 traders; 1,400,000 shares; three purchase registrations without a volume), noting these are registrations of intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the line(s) in the notes that support ‘receivables outside the trade cycle’ (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) — verify the 12.8% of total assets breakdown and counterparties/related-party disclosures.
- Reconcile the total accruals (TATA = 0.1737) to the consolidated statement of cash flows and the statement of changes in working capital — identify the components driving the 17.37% TATA ratio.
- Compare operating cash flow and profit for the last three years in the cash-flow statement to confirm the 3-year cash conversion = -0.22 and disclose items (noncash adjustments, working-capital movements) that produced the negative conversion.
- Examine the revenue recognition policy note and the revenue/detail schedules to investigate revenue-quality = 0.0/100 and SGI = 1.8968 (sales growth); check timing, cutoff, and any consignment/related-party sales disclosures.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.96
- P/S
- 0.85
- ROE
- 10.6%
- ROA
- 5.7%
- EPS
- 1.160
- BVPS
- 12.276
- Gross Margin
- 17.8%
- Net Margin
- 8.5%
- D/E
- 0.26
- Current Ratio
- 2.45
- Rev Growth
- +89.7%
- Profit Growth
- +33.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.16
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 118M
- Charter Capital
- 1,177B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Công nghệ Thông tin
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Thiết bị và Phần cứng
- Sub-industry
- Thiết bị viễn thông
- Company Type
- CT