Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 40.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 43.734
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.2527th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.3%20th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5075 (80th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.16, indicating accounting signals that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have moved materially over one year. Specific earnings-quality flags include very low cash conversion (30.0/100) and zero scores on receivables quality and revenue quality, while solvency and simple fundamentals look healthy (Altman Z-Score 5.39; Piotroski F-Score 6/9).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.5075 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight variables); this is above the US -1.78 threshold but the note: about 28% of Vietnamese firms exceed -1.78, so the peer-percentile (80th) and the YoY change (+1.16) are more relevant here.
- DSRI = 1.4630 (Days' Sales Receivables Index; measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales). A DSRI of 1.4630 implies receivables (or revenue recognition exposure) have grown relative to sales and is the largest single contributor to the M-Score.
- Earnings-quality component — Receivables quality = 0.0/100 (measures the composition and riskiness of receivables). A zero score indicates poor measurable quality of receivables for FY2025.
- Earnings-quality component — Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (measures persistence and reliability of reported revenue). A zero score signals weak observable revenue quality.
- Cash-conversion problems: Cash conversion = 30.0/100 and the three-year operating-cash-flow/net-profit ratio = 0.25 (26th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). This shows reported profit is not converting to cash at industry-normal rates.
- Year-over-year M-Score change = +1.16 (measures trajectory; the accounting profile moved noticeably in one year even though M-Scores have low year-to-year correlation).
- TATA = 0.0883 (Total Accruals to Assets; measures the magnitude of accruals). Although relatively small in absolute terms, when combined with very low cash conversion it suggests earnings include non-cash elements that are not converting to cash.
- AQI = 1.0481 (Asset Quality Index; >1 indicates investment in potentially less-reliable assets such as receivables, intangibles or capitalized costs). AQI >1 supports the receivables/revenue concerns raised by DSRI and revenue-quality scores.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.3% of total assets (20th percentile). While the absolute percentage is low, the combination of high DSRI and zero receivables-quality score suggests the composition or aging of receivables merits scrutiny rather than relying on size alone.
- Altman Z-Score = 5.39 (measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and earnings items); a score of 5.39 places the company in the "safe" zone for bankruptcy risk based on the Altman model.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (measures nine fundamental improvements/weaknesses). A 6 indicates generally neutral-to-favourable operational and profitability fundamentals.
- Margin quality = 93.3/100 (measures stability and quality of gross/net margins). A very high score indicates margins are robust and not the immediate source of the earnings-quality deterioration.
- SGAI = 0.8236 (SG&A Index; <1 indicates SG&A has not grown faster than sales). This suggests selling/general/admin expenses are not an obvious source of manipulation pressure.
- DEPI = 0.7887 (Depreciation Index; <1 implies either higher depreciation or less aggressive capitalisation policies versus the prior period). This is consistent with conservative or modestly more rapid depreciation rather than capitalization-based earnings inflation.
- LVGI = 0.8139 (Leverage Growth Index; <1 indicates leverage has not expanded materially). Low leverage growth reduces one common financial pressure that can motivate aggressive accounting.
- Accrued losses and statutory tests: accumulated losses = none; parent's net loss years = 0; owner's equity (ex-minority) positive; and statutory loss tests per Decree 155/2020 (amended) are not met — these are factual, positive signals on reported solvency and loss status.
Ownership is concentrated: PAN Farm (institution) holds 51.2% of shares, giving the largest shareholder majority control. Several individuals hold mid-single-digit stakes (Trương Công Cứ 4.5%, Thân Trọng Hoàn Mỹ 3.7%, Nguyễn Văn Hiếu 3.3%) and a foreign institutional holder (FTIF - Templeton Frontier Markets Fund) holds 3.7%. Director-deal registrations in the past 12 months include one sale registration (1,100,000 shares) and one purchase registration (1,100,000 shares); these are registered intentions and not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 note/schedule for trade receivables and the aging table with the revenue note to reconcile where DSRI (1.4630) is coming from and whether receivables growth is matched by sales growth and ageing.
- Inspect the related-party disclosures and the 'receivables outside the trade cycle' lines (prepayments, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) and reconcile them to the 0.3% of total assets figure to understand composition and counterparty risk.
- Reconcile reported net profit to cash from operating activities in the cash-flow statement across the last three years and verify items driving the 0.25 three-year cash-conversion ratio (look at depreciation, changes in working capital, one-off items and related-party cash flows).
- Review notes on revenue recognition policies, significant contracts and any description of timing or performance obligations to assess the basis for the Revenue Quality = 0.0/100 signal (check for contract liabilities, principal/agent disclosures or large one-off revenue items).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.02
- P/S
- 0.48
- ROE
- 21.0%
- ROA
- 13.7%
- EPS
- 8.082
- BVPS
- 39.873
- Gross Margin
- 24.2%
- Net Margin
- 9.7%
- D/E
- 0.05
- Current Ratio
- 3.12
- Rev Growth
- −3.6%
- Profit Growth
- −28.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.47
- Div Yield
- 12.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 41.7M
- Charter Capital
- 417B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT