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Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải và Thuê Tàu biển Việt Nam

VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiUPCOMCT
2.600
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+39.2%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
2.600
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
3.618

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
50.2%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+5.7percentage points
Construction12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−11.7+5.7
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→77.22B
Fair EV/EBITDA→16.8x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→2.600
Calibrated value vs last close→+39.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
3.618
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA77.2 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132011
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·14020822624617191118138167181234302333·
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·31332934193152362222355254·
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000000038000·
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·5313515414699172844748610979113·
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.920.8286493030282951·
Net Inventories
·392931423931293843415799103·
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·392931423931293843415799103·
Other current assets
·1612122314139202524337262·
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000001219·
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·3781702333284716197459511,1581,5591,6712,3132,430·
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·23232323222323472120100.4·
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·23232323222323472120100.4·
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·3501231812644205627078921,0411,2921,4712,1542,396·
Tangible fixed assets
·3501231802644205627078921,0411,2911,4692,1502,371·
Intagible fixed assets
·00.10.20.10.040.020.0500.21234·
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·2222234556700·
Investments in associate companies
·0000012355500·
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·2222222222200·
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·00000000−2−0.7000·
Other non-current assets
·0.321273825301089123419015934·
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.321273825301089115354132·
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·5173784595746427118621,0891,3251,7401,9052,6152,763·
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·9411,0471,3652,0762,3592,4252,2912,2452,2262,2082,1102,3702,449·
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·7639431,1961,7422,3082,2212,0112,0371,935361367457629·
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2112413393991,0571,0691,0341,1781,061128157202309·
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·3517162315126930.4720.4·
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·178104168334512042802082901,8471,7431,9131,819·
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·14496160326421952701992821,8391,7341,8931,780·
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·−423−669−906−1,502−1,716−1,714−1,429−1,156−901−468−205236306·
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·−423−669−906−1,502−1,716−1,714−1,429−1,156−901−468−205236306·
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·690690670630630630610610610590590590590·
Other Reserves
·000000000000.30.3·
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·121212111110101010101055·
Other Reserves
·5555555555555·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−1,130−1,376−1,592−2,148−2,362−2,359−2,053−1,781−1,525−1,072−809−369−300·
Minority Interest
·0000000000098·
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·5173784595746427118621,0891,3251,7401,9052,6152,763·
Convertible bonds (Bn. VND)
·000000.60000000·
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·690690670630630630610610610590590590590·

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
41
Weak
Accrual Quality
35
Cash Conversion
48
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
90th–97th
M 0.27 · 94th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.68
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.374
GMI
5.384
AQI
0.429
SGI
1.059
DEPI
2.417
SGAI
1.014
TATA
0.194
LVGI
0.638

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.2827th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
4.7%66th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
1.64×Statutory test met
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
NegativeStatutory test met

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The accounting signals show material concerns: a Beneish M-Score of 0.2672 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +1.68) indicates more aggressive accounting behavior relative to peers and a recent upward trajectory. Complementary indicators include a very weak Altman Z-Score of -3.66 (distress zone) and a low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, while the Earnings Quality Score is 40.6/100 with especially poor margin and revenue quality (0.0/100 each).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 0.2672 (94th percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +1.68). The M-Score combines eight earnings-quality ratios and here ranks high versus VN peers, indicating more aggressive accounting metrics relative to the market.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 5.3838 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 2.4172. GMI > 1 and DEPI > 1 are components that often signal deteriorating margins and slower depreciation policies respectively; both are strongly elevated.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1940 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.6380. TATA of 0.1940 indicates relatively high accruals versus assets (accruals quality = 34.9/100), suggesting earnings not fully supported by cash flow.
  • Earnings Quality 40.6/100 with margin quality = 0.0/100 and revenue quality = 0.0/100. These two zero scores point to the poorest quality on margin and revenue components measured in this scoring framework.
  • Altman Z-Score = -3.66 (distress zone). This Z-Score measures distance to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity—here it indicates financial distress.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (weak fundamentals). A low F-Score reflects weak profitability and balance-sheet improvements across the recent year.
  • Vietnamese cash-conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.28 (27th percentile). Low cash conversion indicates profits are not translating into operating cash (operating cash flow lagging net profit).
  • Accumulated losses = 1.64x paid-in capital and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is negative. The audited statements show accumulated losses above paid-in capital and negative owner’s equity.
  • Statutory loss-test outcome: the financial statements meet the statutory criteria (accumulated losses above paid-in capital / negative owner’s equity) described in Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e) (amended by Decree 245/2025); note the company trades on UPCoM where the HOSE/HNX delisting rule does not apply.
  • Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): 7 sale registrations by 2 registrants for 10,386,000 shares and 0 purchase registrations; net registered volume = -15.05% of shares outstanding. These are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.7% of total assets (66th percentile). This level is moderate and, in the peer context, not unusually large for VAS-reporting companies where related-party prepayments and loans can appear.
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100. The receivables component of the earnings-quality scoring framework indicates receivables metrics themselves do not show the worst signs of manipulation here.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0588 and SGAI (SG&A Index) = 1.0136. SGI slightly above 1 shows small sales growth; SGAI close to 1 indicates selling/general/administrative expenses have not sharply outpaced sales in the period measured.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: the state-related Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam holds 43.3%, and institutional holders (including Công ty TNHH Mua bán nợ Việt Nam 10.3% and Quỹ tầm nhìn SSI 4.7%) together control a majority stake. Director-deal registrations show insider intentions to sell (7 sale registrations, net registered volume -15.05% of shares outstanding) — these are exchange filings of intended transactions, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 statement of changes in equity and the auditor’s notes for the schedule that discloses accumulated losses to confirm the 1.64x paid-in capital figure and the components driving negative owner’s equity.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and the management discussion & analysis to verify the 3-year cash-conversion ratio = 0.28 and identify timing items or large non-cash adjustments (check the notes on receivables, inventories and payables).
  • Examine the related-party disclosures and the notes labeled 'prepayments to suppliers / loans receivable / other long-term receivables' to substantiate the 4.7% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Review the auditor’s report and any going-concern or emphasis-of-matter paragraphs, and the statutory accounts’ notes addressing compliance with Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e) (amended by Decree 245/2025) to confirm the statements meet the described statutory loss tests.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
−3.66
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.01
Negative
Composite
74
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.96×Interest Burden−5.43×Op. Margin−0.09×Turnover1.02×Leverage−1.22=ROE−58.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
+11.5%
Volatility
77.0%
Max Drawdown
−35.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
0.73P/E
P/B
—
P/S
0.34
ROE
−45.3%
ROA
55.2%
EPS
3.585
BVPS
−6.133
Gross Margin
2.6%
Net Margin
47.1%
D/E
—
Current Ratio
0.18
Rev Growth
+5.9%
Profit Growth
+13.5%
EV/EBITDA
23.30
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
69.0M
Charter Capital
690B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Vận tải Thủy
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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