Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 13.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 13.384
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.4229th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.2%15th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.3681 (Vietnam peer percentile 82nd), indicating accounting signals more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers; the M-Score rose by +1.97 year-over-year. Key Beneish components: DSRI 2.5265 (days-sales/receivables signal), DEPI 1.9924 (depreciation policy change), LVGI 1.3455 (leverage growth), TATA 0.0208 (total accruals to assets). Earnings-quality composite is 41.2/100 with very low scores on receivables and revenue quality (0/100 each) and weak cash conversion (43.2/100). Altman Z-Score is 1.92 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.3681 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to a US-calibrated cutoff of -1.78; company is above that cutoff but the Vietnamese context means ~28% exceed it). The 82nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers means this company shows more aggressive accounting than ~82% of domestic non-financial listed peers.
- Year-over-year M-Score change = +1.97 (measures trajectory of the M-Score; a sizable upward move suggests accounting signals have recently become more pronounced).
- DSRI = 2.5265 (days-sales in receivables index; >1 implies receivables or revenue recognition growing faster than sales — a possible receivables/revenue timing issue).
- DEPI = 1.9924 (depreciation index; >1 implies slower depreciation relative to prior year which can inflate margins via lower depreciation expense).
- LVGI = 1.3455 (leverage growth index; >1 indicates increasing leverage which can stress cash flows and provide incentives to manage earnings).
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these metrics measure the extent to which revenue and receivables patterns look sustainable and supported by cash — both score the worst possible, consistent with DSRI signal).
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.42, ranked at the 29th percentile (measures ability to convert reported profit into operating cash over three years; low value suggests profits are not being realised in cash).
- Altman Z-Score = 1.92 (measures distance to bankruptcy; 1.92 sits in the grey zone between safe and distressed).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures fundamental financial health; 4 is neutral-to-weak).
- Director-deal registrations: 1 sale registration for 343,400 shares (net registered volume -1.01% of shares outstanding) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (registrations are intentions to trade disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).
- Accruals quality = 91.7/100 (measures the degree to which earnings are supported by low abnormal accruals; a high score suggests reported earnings are not heavily driven by accrual manipulation).
- TATA = 0.0208 (total accruals to assets; a low positive number consistent with the high accruals-quality score).
- SGI = 0.9831 (sales growth index ~1, meaning sales growth is roughly stable rather than accelerating sharply, which reduces one common motive for aggressive revenue recognition).
- GMI = 0.6776 (gross margin index <1 indicates gross margins improved year-over-year, which is not in itself an earnings-quality red flag under Beneish).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.2% of total assets (14th percentile among Vietnamese peers; measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables — low absolute level suggests limited off-cycle receivables).
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025 — these are factual balance-sheet and profit-history strengths.
Majority ownership: Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam holds 51.0% (institutional / state-linked) and VSC (listed) holds 39.0% (influence). The group around VSC includes multiple related listed companies (DNL, GIC, VGR, VSM) with large cross-holdings, indicating concentrated ownership and a significant listed-group structure where related-party transactions, group allocations and VAS-era practices can be relevant.
- Compare year-on-year changes in trade receivables and the revenue note: reconcile the increases implied by DSRI (2.5265) with the revenue recognition policy and any notes on bad-debt provisioning.
- Review the depreciation note and fixed-asset schedule to confirm changes in useful lives or methods that could explain DEPI = 1.9924.
- Reconcile operating cash flow versus net profit across the past three years in the cashflow statement and profit-and-loss note to examine the 3-year cash conversion ratio = 0.42.
- Inspect related-party schedules and the notes on prepayments/loans to check the composition of the 'receivables outside the trade cycle' line (0.2% of total assets) and any large intercompany balances with VSC or the state shareholder.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.78
- P/S
- 0.75
- ROE
- 7.4%
- ROA
- 4.9%
- EPS
- 1.273
- BVPS
- 17.351
- Gross Margin
- 4.5%
- Net Margin
- 7.1%
- D/E
- 0.47
- Current Ratio
- 2.37
- Rev Growth
- −1.7%
- Profit Growth
- −34.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 15.36
- Div Yield
- 4.4%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 34.0M
- Charter Capital
- 340B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Vận tải Thủy
- Company Type
- CT