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VNA

Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải biển Vinaship

VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiUPCOMCT
13.000
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+3.0%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
13.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
13.384

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→65.04B
Fair EV/EBITDA→5.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→13.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+3.0%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
13.384
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA65.0 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132011
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·317361386464354125113137151151173219116·
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·178139226241179221828251442145·
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·43133601234000011311500·
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·471948216155474952606612053·
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·221221360.6230.20.020.04·
Net Inventories
·39403258433635423733335437·
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·39403258433635423733335437·
Other current assets
·10302022311213192614173221·
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000006·
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·6424482322713604154995737237978839821,089·
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.2000000000000·
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.2000000000000·
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·6244161412243073834725596837818789761,074·
Tangible fixed assets
·6244161412243063834725596837818789761,074·
Intagible fixed assets
·000.050.20.40.20000000.04·
Investment in properties
·2334560.4000000·
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·326,268309,0680.090.090.1444444515·
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·0.000.000.50.50.5666666622·
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−0.00−0.00−0.4−0.4−0.4−2−2−2−2−2−2−1−7·
Other non-current assets
·162837394721221035110.410·
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·162837384721221035110.410·
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·9598096187357145416127108739481,0561,2011,205·
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·369232101241472476549676872871880985992·
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·134105101229381270260289381376321372367·
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·4221024131176149138227248211181190·
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.3020.60.10080.0510.442·
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2351270.21291206289386491495559613626·
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·23412501281159214286481491559613625·
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·590577517494242646335277176216212·
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·590577517494242646335277176216212·
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·340340200200200200200200200200200200200·
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·20517014683838383838383838372·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·4567170211−41−218−220−248−281−205−107−67−71·
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·9598096187357145416127108739481,0561,2011,205·
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·340340200200200200200200200200200200200·

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
41
Weak
Accrual Quality
92
Cash Conversion
43
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
50
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.37 · 82nd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.97
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
2.526
GMI
0.678
AQI
0.489
SGI
0.983
DEPI
1.992
SGAI
0.994
TATA
0.021
LVGI
1.346

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.4229th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.2%15th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.3681 (Vietnam peer percentile 82nd), indicating accounting signals more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers; the M-Score rose by +1.97 year-over-year. Key Beneish components: DSRI 2.5265 (days-sales/receivables signal), DEPI 1.9924 (depreciation policy change), LVGI 1.3455 (leverage growth), TATA 0.0208 (total accruals to assets). Earnings-quality composite is 41.2/100 with very low scores on receivables and revenue quality (0/100 each) and weak cash conversion (43.2/100). Altman Z-Score is 1.92 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.3681 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to a US-calibrated cutoff of -1.78; company is above that cutoff but the Vietnamese context means ~28% exceed it). The 82nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers means this company shows more aggressive accounting than ~82% of domestic non-financial listed peers.
  • Year-over-year M-Score change = +1.97 (measures trajectory of the M-Score; a sizable upward move suggests accounting signals have recently become more pronounced).
  • DSRI = 2.5265 (days-sales in receivables index; >1 implies receivables or revenue recognition growing faster than sales — a possible receivables/revenue timing issue).
  • DEPI = 1.9924 (depreciation index; >1 implies slower depreciation relative to prior year which can inflate margins via lower depreciation expense).
  • LVGI = 1.3455 (leverage growth index; >1 indicates increasing leverage which can stress cash flows and provide incentives to manage earnings).
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these metrics measure the extent to which revenue and receivables patterns look sustainable and supported by cash — both score the worst possible, consistent with DSRI signal).
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.42, ranked at the 29th percentile (measures ability to convert reported profit into operating cash over three years; low value suggests profits are not being realised in cash).
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.92 (measures distance to bankruptcy; 1.92 sits in the grey zone between safe and distressed).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures fundamental financial health; 4 is neutral-to-weak).
  • Director-deal registrations: 1 sale registration for 343,400 shares (net registered volume -1.01% of shares outstanding) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (registrations are intentions to trade disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 91.7/100 (measures the degree to which earnings are supported by low abnormal accruals; a high score suggests reported earnings are not heavily driven by accrual manipulation).
  • TATA = 0.0208 (total accruals to assets; a low positive number consistent with the high accruals-quality score).
  • SGI = 0.9831 (sales growth index ~1, meaning sales growth is roughly stable rather than accelerating sharply, which reduces one common motive for aggressive revenue recognition).
  • GMI = 0.6776 (gross margin index <1 indicates gross margins improved year-over-year, which is not in itself an earnings-quality red flag under Beneish).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.2% of total assets (14th percentile among Vietnamese peers; measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables — low absolute level suggests limited off-cycle receivables).
  • No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025 — these are factual balance-sheet and profit-history strengths.
Ownership Risk

Majority ownership: Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam holds 51.0% (institutional / state-linked) and VSC (listed) holds 39.0% (influence). The group around VSC includes multiple related listed companies (DNL, GIC, VGR, VSM) with large cross-holdings, indicating concentrated ownership and a significant listed-group structure where related-party transactions, group allocations and VAS-era practices can be relevant.

To check in the filings
  • Compare year-on-year changes in trade receivables and the revenue note: reconcile the increases implied by DSRI (2.5265) with the revenue recognition policy and any notes on bad-debt provisioning.
  • Review the depreciation note and fixed-asset schedule to confirm changes in useful lives or methods that could explain DEPI = 1.9924.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow versus net profit across the past three years in the cashflow statement and profit-and-loss note to examine the 3-year cash conversion ratio = 0.42.
  • Inspect related-party schedules and the notes on prepayments/loans to check the composition of the 'receivables outside the trade cycle' line (0.2% of total assets) and any large intercompany balances with VSC or the state shareholder.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.92
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.47
Negative
Composite
33
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden−3.46×Op. Margin−0.03×Turnover0.64×Leverage1.63=ROE7.3%
Price Risk
Momentum
−19.1%
Volatility
62.7%
Max Drawdown
−39.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.60P/E
P/B
0.78
P/S
0.75
ROE
7.4%
ROA
4.9%
EPS
1.273
BVPS
17.351
Gross Margin
4.5%
Net Margin
7.1%
D/E
0.47
Current Ratio
2.37
Rev Growth
−1.7%
Profit Growth
−34.1%
EV/EBITDA
15.36
Div Yield
4.4%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
34.0M
Charter Capital
340B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Vận tải Thủy
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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