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Công ty Cổ phần VIMC Logistics

VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiUPCOMCT
6.600
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+12.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
6.600
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.403

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→10.19B
Fair EV/EBITDA→6.3x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→6.600
Calibrated value vs last close→+12.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.403
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA10.2 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·210165908914114514614815113512916261
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·3222141538262730377134
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1435000000000101
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·156946464961121121111401221108436
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·610.523421330.732
Other current assets
·8131210777885135420
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000004413
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·636598110113123121122128134145147140
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·1210101010110.70.80.80.40.800
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·1210101010110.70.80.80.40.800
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·37414652596775838997106143130
Tangible fixed assets
·374146525967758389971069232
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·11111111111111654334
Investments in associate companies
·11111111111111666666
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·1111111111111
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−1−1−1−1−1−1−1−1−2−3−4−4−3
Other non-current assets
·1110.912310.90.20.317
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·1110.912310.90.20.30.50.2
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·273230188199255268267270280269274309201
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·105523960871011039710810211114943
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·10552396087101103941049410113743
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00071543513752384708
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·20.050.40.70.50.30.0200.310.2720.8
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·000000025710120
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·000000025710120
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·168177149139168167164174171167163160158
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·168177149139168167164174171167163160158
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·142142142142142142142142142142142142142
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·202020202020201714121065
Other Reserves
·0000000.100.10.20.070.10.060.2
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·616−13−23662151614111010
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·273230188199255268267270280269274309201
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·142142142142142142142142142142142142142
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
42
Weak
Accrual Quality
86
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.56 · 78th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −0.25
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.793
GMI
1.226
AQI
0.898
SGI
2.088
DEPI
1.263
SGAI
0.449
TATA
0.035
LVGI
1.688

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.7515th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
6.4%73rd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows mixed forensic signals: the Beneish M‑Score is -1.5592 (78th percentile versus Vietnamese peers), indicating relatively more aggressive accounting than most local peers but below the US -1.78 cutoff; earnings-quality is weak overall (41.5/100) driven by zero scores on cash conversion, margin and revenue quality, while accruals and receivables quality score strongly. Complementary solvency and fundamentals metrics are concerning: Altman Z‑Score is 2.66 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F‑Score is 3/9, and three‑year cash conversion is very low at -0.75 (15th percentile).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score -1.5592 (78th percentile among Vietnamese peers): this measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios; the peer percentile shows the company is more aggressive than most local peers despite being above the US manipulation cutoff.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.2257: measures deterioration in gross margins year over year; a value >1 suggests gross margin has worsened and can be associated with pressure to manage earnings.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.2630: measures a slowing of depreciation rates (ratio of prior-year to current-year depreciation); >1 can indicate slower charge of depreciation to boost current profits.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 2.0878: measures sales growth; high SGI denotes rapid revenue growth which Beneish links to higher manipulation risk when combined with other signals.
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.6878: measures increasing leverage (total debt/total assets); >1 indicates rising leverage which can create incentives to manage results.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0349: positive accruals indicate some portion of profit is non‑cash; while not large, it aligns with other concerns given near‑zero cash conversion.
  • Three‑year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.75 (15th percentile): measures whether reported profits convert to cash; a strongly negative number indicates profit is not generating operating cash.
  • Earnings‑quality sub‑scores: margin quality = 0/100 and revenue quality = 0/100: these metrics flag weak persistence or reliability of margins and reported revenue.
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 3/9 (weak fundamentals): this measures profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency; a low score signals weak financial improvement or deterioration.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 86.0/100: this measures the quality of accrual accounting (lower abnormal accruals raise the score); a high score suggests reported earnings are not dominated by unusual accruals.
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and DSRI = 0.7926: DSRI <1 indicates days‑sales‑receivables are not expanding relative to sales; the receivables quality score and DSRI suggest receivables growth is not a major red flag.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.8977 (<1): measures the proportion of non‑current assets and other asset shifts; <1 can indicate fewer discretionary write‑offs or asset capitalization increases that would inflate margins.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (ex‑minority) positive; parent reported no net loss in the last 0 years to FY2025: these are balance‑sheet and statutory facts that reduce immediate solvency alarm.
Ownership Risk

The shareholder base is concentrated and state‑linked: Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam holds 56.7%, with other port/agency institutions holding small stakes (PHP 1.4%, Cảng Đà Nẵng 1.4%, Đại lý Hàng hải 0.4%); a single individual (Phạm Bá Ngân) holds 0.1%. No director‑deal registrations were provided in the input (registrations are information filed with the exchange and are not executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Reconcile operating cash flow to profit: compare the consolidated cash flow from operating activities line in the FY2025 cash flow statement with reported net profit and the notes to reconcile major non‑cash adjustments and working‑capital movements.
  • Inspect the note/schedule for receivables, prepayments and loans receivable: quantify the 6.4% of total assets labelled as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' and identify counterparties and related‑party designations.
  • Review fixed‑asset and depreciation policies: check the depreciation expense and useful‑life disclosures to assess the components behind DEPI = 1.2630 and any changes in capitalization policy (note, policy paragraph, or schedule).
  • Examine related‑party transactions and group schedules: confirm the extent of intra‑group sales, guaranteed borrowings or significant prepayments to entities in the listed group (notes to related parties and transactions with parent/state owner).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.66
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.38
Negative
Composite
35
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.05×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover1.37×Leverage1.63=ROE3.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
−24.4%
Volatility
109.6%
Max Drawdown
−33.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
14.43P/E
P/B
0.56
P/S
0.25
ROE
3.8%
ROA
2.6%
EPS
457
BVPS
11.848
Gross Margin
3.3%
Net Margin
1.7%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
2.00
Rev Growth
+108.8%
Profit Growth
−77.3%
EV/EBITDA
4.63
Div Yield
12.1%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
14.2M
Charter Capital
142B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Dịch vụ vận tải
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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