Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.403
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 22 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.7515th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 6.4%73rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows mixed forensic signals: the Beneish M‑Score is -1.5592 (78th percentile versus Vietnamese peers), indicating relatively more aggressive accounting than most local peers but below the US -1.78 cutoff; earnings-quality is weak overall (41.5/100) driven by zero scores on cash conversion, margin and revenue quality, while accruals and receivables quality score strongly. Complementary solvency and fundamentals metrics are concerning: Altman Z‑Score is 2.66 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F‑Score is 3/9, and three‑year cash conversion is very low at -0.75 (15th percentile).
- Beneish M‑Score -1.5592 (78th percentile among Vietnamese peers): this measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios; the peer percentile shows the company is more aggressive than most local peers despite being above the US manipulation cutoff.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.2257: measures deterioration in gross margins year over year; a value >1 suggests gross margin has worsened and can be associated with pressure to manage earnings.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.2630: measures a slowing of depreciation rates (ratio of prior-year to current-year depreciation); >1 can indicate slower charge of depreciation to boost current profits.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 2.0878: measures sales growth; high SGI denotes rapid revenue growth which Beneish links to higher manipulation risk when combined with other signals.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.6878: measures increasing leverage (total debt/total assets); >1 indicates rising leverage which can create incentives to manage results.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0349: positive accruals indicate some portion of profit is non‑cash; while not large, it aligns with other concerns given near‑zero cash conversion.
- Three‑year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.75 (15th percentile): measures whether reported profits convert to cash; a strongly negative number indicates profit is not generating operating cash.
- Earnings‑quality sub‑scores: margin quality = 0/100 and revenue quality = 0/100: these metrics flag weak persistence or reliability of margins and reported revenue.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 3/9 (weak fundamentals): this measures profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency; a low score signals weak financial improvement or deterioration.
- Accruals quality = 86.0/100: this measures the quality of accrual accounting (lower abnormal accruals raise the score); a high score suggests reported earnings are not dominated by unusual accruals.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and DSRI = 0.7926: DSRI <1 indicates days‑sales‑receivables are not expanding relative to sales; the receivables quality score and DSRI suggest receivables growth is not a major red flag.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.8977 (<1): measures the proportion of non‑current assets and other asset shifts; <1 can indicate fewer discretionary write‑offs or asset capitalization increases that would inflate margins.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (ex‑minority) positive; parent reported no net loss in the last 0 years to FY2025: these are balance‑sheet and statutory facts that reduce immediate solvency alarm.
The shareholder base is concentrated and state‑linked: Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam holds 56.7%, with other port/agency institutions holding small stakes (PHP 1.4%, Cảng Đà Nẵng 1.4%, Đại lý Hàng hải 0.4%); a single individual (Phạm Bá Ngân) holds 0.1%. No director‑deal registrations were provided in the input (registrations are information filed with the exchange and are not executed trades).
- Reconcile operating cash flow to profit: compare the consolidated cash flow from operating activities line in the FY2025 cash flow statement with reported net profit and the notes to reconcile major non‑cash adjustments and working‑capital movements.
- Inspect the note/schedule for receivables, prepayments and loans receivable: quantify the 6.4% of total assets labelled as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' and identify counterparties and related‑party designations.
- Review fixed‑asset and depreciation policies: check the depreciation expense and useful‑life disclosures to assess the components behind DEPI = 1.2630 and any changes in capitalization policy (note, policy paragraph, or schedule).
- Examine related‑party transactions and group schedules: confirm the extent of intra‑group sales, guaranteed borrowings or significant prepayments to entities in the listed group (notes to related parties and transactions with parent/state owner).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.56
- P/S
- 0.25
- ROE
- 3.8%
- ROA
- 2.6%
- EPS
- 457
- BVPS
- 11.848
- Gross Margin
- 3.3%
- Net Margin
- 1.7%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 2.00
- Rev Growth
- +108.8%
- Profit Growth
- −77.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.63
- Div Yield
- 12.1%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 14.2M
- Charter Capital
- 142B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Dịch vụ vận tải
- Company Type
- CT