TUG
Công ty Cổ phần Lai dắt và Vận tải Cảng Hải Phòng
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 20.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 19.264
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 26 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.7336th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.5%23rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.1395 (87th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating accounting behavior more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers; the year-over-year change is -3.20, showing a recent move in the score. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 78.1/100 with perfect scores (100/100) on accruals quality, cash conversion and receivables quality, but weak revenue quality (3.8/100) and moderate margin quality (50/100). The Altman Z-Score is 2.19 (grey zone for bankruptcy distance) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.1395 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to a model calibrated on US data). The company sits at the 87th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher percentile = more aggressive account-ing behavior relative to peers).
- Year-over-year change in M-Score = -3.20 (measures direction and magnitude of change in the M-Score). This large negative change shows the M-Score moved materially in the latest year compared with the prior year.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 8.5821 (measures change in the proportion of non-current/illiquid assets; higher values can signal asset reclassification or write-offs). This is notably large and warrants attention to composition of non-current assets.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 4.9420 (measures change in depreciation policy / rate; values >1 suggest slower depreciation or asset revaluation; here it is materially >1).
- Revenue quality = 3.8/100 (from the earnings-quality decomposition; measures persistence and reliability of revenue). This very low score indicates concerns about the quality or sustainability of reported revenue growth.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.73, ranked 36th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials (measures the extent profits convert to cash). A sub-1 value and relatively low percentile indicate profit is not fully turning into operating cash.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.5% of total assets, 23rd percentile (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables outside normal trade receivables). Low-percentile but non-zero amount suggests some non-trade receivable exposure to review.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures 9 fundamental signals of quality; a 4 is neutral-to-weak).
- Earnings Quality Score = 78.1/100 (aggregate measure of different earnings-quality pillars).
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 (measures the extent earnings are driven by accruals; a high score indicates low abnormal accruals).
- Cash conversion (component) = 100.0/100 in the earnings-quality components (measures recent cash/earnings dynamics at a sub-score level). Note this contrasts with the 3-year cash-conversion check — the decomposition’s cash-conversion metric and the three-year cash conversion rank are different measures.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (within the earnings-quality decomposition this indicates receivables appear consistent with revenues over the scoring horizon).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0260 (measures sales growth; modestly >1 indicates low to moderate sales growth rather than high, potentially volatile expansion).
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.3969 (measures change in leverage; while >1 indicates rising leverage, it is a quantified signal that can be reconciled with balance-sheet items rather than an immediate accounting concern).
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and parent profit has not posted a net loss in the last 0 years up to FY2025 (these are balance-sheet and statutory outcomes showing no historical statutory loss condition).
The largest shareholder is PHP (Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Hải Phòng) with 60.3% (control), indicating a controlling listed parent. Another significant listed shareholder is HMH at 13.4%. The listed parent also controls DVP (51.0%). Director-deal registrations recorded between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 show 1 sale registration and 1 purchase registration (registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the AQI drivers in the notes to the fixed assets / other non-current asset schedules — identify which asset lines rose and reconcile the 8.5821 AQI to those line items.
- Inspect the depreciation policy note and movement in accumulated depreciation to reconcile DEPI = 4.9420 (check changes in useful lives, residual values or revaluations).
- Compare the revenue recognition note and detailed revenue schedules to the revenue-quality component (3.8/100) — specifically reconcile any one-off, inter-segment or related-party revenue items.
- Reconcile operating cash flow, profit before tax and the three-year cash-conversion ratio reported (operating cash flow / net profit = 0.73) using the consolidated cash-flow statement and the parent profit figure.
- Review the disclosures for ‘receivables and prepayments’ and the related-party receivables note to locate the 0.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and to see counterparty and maturity details.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.19
- P/S
- 1.05
- ROE
- 11.7%
- ROA
- 7.7%
- EPS
- 1.627
- BVPS
- 16.807
- Gross Margin
- 24.4%
- Net Margin
- 8.5%
- D/E
- 0.33
- Current Ratio
- 1.92
- Rev Growth
- +2.6%
- Profit Growth
- +9.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 10.58
- Div Yield
- 3.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.4M
- Charter Capital
- 53.8B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
- Company Type
- CT