Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 15.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 16.826
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.9314th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.0%3rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
HMH's Beneish M-Score is -1.622 (77th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a small year-over-year increase of +0.08, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most local peers though not beyond the US -1.78 threshold (noting that threshold is US-calibrated). Earnings-quality measures are weak overall (28.1/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and margin and revenue quality (both 0.0/100), while the Altman Z-Score is 5.30 (safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9 (weak fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score -1.622 (77th Vietnam percentile): measures likelihood of earnings manipulation; the company scores higher (more aggressive) than 77% of Vietnamese peers and the M-Score rose by +0.08 year-over-year.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.1638: measures deterioration in gross margins year-over-year; a value >1 indicates gross margins have declined.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 1.1197: measures growth in SG&A relative to sales; >1 suggests SG&A rising faster than sales.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.2120: measures increase in leverage; >1 indicates rising leverage year-over-year.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.2034: measures accruals; a positive and relatively large TATA suggests earnings driven by accruals rather than cash.
- Earnings Quality overall 28.1/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Margin quality 0.0/100: operating cash flow is not converting reported profits and margins show low quality.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.93 (14th percentile among VN non-financials): indicates profits have not been converting into cash and ranks low versus peers.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9: measures fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 3 is weak and signals soft operational/financial health.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.0% of total assets (3rd percentile): measures prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables; very low value suggests limited non-trade receivables exposure.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100: the model finds receivables appear transparent and not materially distorted.
- Altman Z-Score = 5.30 (safe zone): measures bankruptcy distance; a score well above distress thresholds indicates a cushion on insolvency metrics.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (ex-minority) positive; and parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025: these statutory balance-sheet/earnings facts indicate the company is not reporting carried losses in the audited statements.
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 as amended) — none met: the audited FY2025 statements do not trigger the exchange cancellation tests cited in Art. 120(1)(e).
Ownership is concentrated: the largest individual shareholder, Trần Quang Tiến, holds 11.1%, and two institutional/group-related entities (Cánh Đồng Xanh affiliates) hold 10.8% and 10.4%, with two other individuals at 7.6% each. Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30) show 1 sale registration (498,900 shares) and 2 purchase registrations (1,000,000 shares) with a net registered volume of +3.62% of shares outstanding; these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 statement of cash flows (operating activities) with the parent net profit line to verify the -0.93 three-year cash-conversion ratio and identify drivers of negative cash conversion.
- Inspect the notes to the financial statements for 'Receivables and Prepayments' and for schedules of loans to related parties to confirm the 0.0% receivables-outside-the-trade-cycle figure and any short-/long-term related-party balances.
- Review the notes on accruals and provisioning (including allowance for doubtful debts and inventory provisions) to reconcile the TATA = 0.2034 and assess the composition of accruals.
- Examine the equity and statutory disclosures (audited balance sheet and the statutory loss test reconciliations) to confirm there are no accumulated losses, owner’s equity is positive, and that none of the Decree 155/2020 (as amended) loss tests are met.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.86
- P/S
- 1.71
- ROE
- 11.7%
- ROA
- 10.1%
- EPS
- 1.944
- BVPS
- 17.466
- Gross Margin
- 16.5%
- Net Margin
- 22.2%
- D/E
- 0.04
- Current Ratio
- 4.19
- Rev Growth
- +12.9%
- Profit Growth
- +49.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.82
- Div Yield
- 6.4%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 13.8M
- Charter Capital
- 138B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Dịch vụ vận tải
- Company Type
- CT