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Công ty Cổ phần Phục vụ mặt đất Sài Gòn

VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiHOSECT
61.800
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+12.2%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
61.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
69.322

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
51.8%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+1.4percentage points
Construction12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−11.7+5.7
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→305.89B
Fair EV/EBITDA→5.8x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→61.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+12.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
69.322
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA305.9 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,5281,2461,058838604588781645383320209348
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·26743232212733622325142417012878211
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·80859741238070702133130014
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·416199304318184280302201175179119100
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·2041111100.10.1341650.4
Net Inventories
·111110865695687
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·111110865695687
Other current assets
·2679581097198416
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·205243232239334457472319316220118105
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·1300.40.30.30.910.30000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·2251212121212121021150
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·177196210232332454436309307218116103
Tangible fixed assets
·16518319822032044142430930721811689
Intagible fixed assets
·1212121212121200000.01
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·00000000000.20
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000.20
Other non-current assets
·181715323463211
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·20.10.20.030.10.32320.70.81
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,7331,4901,2891,0779391,0461,253964698540327452
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·360293277215118160285268204188118312
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·323269258197106149271254191180118312
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·5322730.60.40.40.20.40.09
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·372419171311141413800
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·1,3731,1961,012862820885968695494352209141
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,3731,1961,012862820885968695494352209141
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·336336336336336336336240240200141141
Other Reserves
·2424242424242499000
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·49339032630328726117413454700
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·324343247152124203348242147138680
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,7331,4901,2891,0779391,0461,253964698540327452
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·336336336336336336336240240200141141
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·1919874424456816437000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
61
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
86
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
95
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.65 · 76th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.19
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
2.144
GMI
1.137
AQI
0.500
SGI
0.975
DEPI
1.065
SGAI
1.153
TATA
−0.008
LVGI
1.033

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.3659th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
13.1%85th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.6458 (above the US manipulation cutoff of -1.78 but in the Vietnamese context the percentile and trajectory matter): it sits at the 76th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and rose by +1.19 year-over-year, indicating accounting measures that are more aggressive than most local peers and that have shifted materially this year. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: accruals quality is strong (100.0/100) and margin quality is high (95.2/100), but receivables and revenue quality score 0.0/100, and the DSRI is high (2.1441). The Altman Z-Score is 6.15 (in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral). Statutory loss tests show none met in the published statements.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.6458 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using an 8‑variable model); the company is at the 76th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting versus VN peers) and the M‑Score increased by +1.19 year-over‑year (the trajectory moved materially).
  • Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 2.1441 (measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value >1 suggests receivables growing faster than sales).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 13.1% of total assets (85th percentile among VN non‑financials; this line captures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables).
  • Receivables quality score = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality score = 0.0/100 (these quantify the quality of reported receivables and revenue recognition; both are very weak).
  • SGAI = 1.1532 and GMI = 1.1372 (SGA expense growth relative to sales >1 and deterioration in gross margins; both are components that, when >1, indicate pressure on core profitability or increasing selling/administrative expenses).
  • AQI = 0.5000 and LVGI = 1.0328 (asset quality and leverage/growth inputs to the M‑Score indicate changes in asset composition and modestly higher leverage/growth signals).
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100 (measures the extent of accruals versus cash—high score indicates accruals are not the primary driver of reported profit).
  • TATA = -0.0079 (total accruals as a fraction of assets is very small/near zero, supporting the high accruals-quality score).
  • Margin quality = 95.2/100 (measures stability/quality of reported margins—score near top suggests reported margins are supported by underlying results).
  • Altman Z‑Score = 6.15 (measures bankruptcy risk; a value well above distress thresholds indicates sizeable buffer on traditional solvency ratios).
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 5/9 (measures nine fundamental signals; a middling score indicates mixed but not deeply deteriorated fundamentals).
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; parent net loss = 0 consecutive years up to FY2025 (these are factual statutory balance-sheet signals of solvency and profitability continuity).
  • Statutory loss tests per Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (as amended) — none met in the audited annual statements (this is a defined regulatory test and the company’s statements do not meet any of the cancellation criteria).
Ownership Risk

Top shareholders are concentrated: Tổng Công ty Cảng Hàng không Việt Nam holds 48.0% (a large, likely state‑linked industrial shareholder), a foreign entity labeled 'america limited liability company' holds 25.0%, and industry-related institutions hold further stakes (Vietjet 9.1%, Trường Sơn real-estate 4.7%, SSI AM 2.5%). Director‑deal registration data were not supplied in the input (registrations, when present, are intentions recorded with the exchange rather than executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line item(s) for 'Receivables', 'Loans and advances to customers/third parties', and 'Prepayments to suppliers' in the FY2025 balance-sheet/schedule to confirm the 13.1% of total assets classification and to identify counterparty/related‑party disclosures.
  • Reconcile the DSRI implication (DSRI = 2.1441) by comparing year‑over‑year revenue (sales) and trade‑receivables days in the revenue note and ageing schedule; check for any new long‑dated receivables or reclassifications in the notes.
  • Review the cash‑flow statement and the note to cashflows to verify the three‑year operating cash flow / net profit series that produced cash conversion = 1.36 (59th percentile) and to see which items (working capital movements, non‑cash adjustments) drove the conversion rate.
  • Examine the related‑party/transactions note and the loans/other‑receivables schedules for disclosures on prepayments, loans to related parties, or other non‑trade receivable balances supporting the 'receivables outside the trade cycle' figure; check contract terms and collateral or settlement dates.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
6.15
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−1.07
Negative
Composite
67
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.20×Turnover0.85×Leverage1.26=ROE16.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
−14.6%
Volatility
15.4%
Max Drawdown
−20.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.77P/E
P/B
1.72
P/S
1.37
ROE
18.3%
ROA
12.9%
EPS
6.215
BVPS
35.272
Gross Margin
28.8%
Net Margin
15.7%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
4.73
Rev Growth
−2.5%
Profit Growth
−23.2%
EV/EBITDA
3.76
Div Yield
4.1%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
33.5M
Charter Capital
335B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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