Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 281.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 291.160
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.7837th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.4%42nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.1927, with an 85th percentile vs Vietnamese peers and a year-over-year increase of +0.94, indicating its accounting metrics are more aggressive than most domestic peers and have moved materially over one year. Key concerns are concentrated in receivables and revenue-quality signals (Receivables quality 0.0/100; Revenue quality 19.1/100; AQI 2.0203). Offsetting signals include a high Altman Z-Score of 14.59 (distance from bankruptcy) and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 (relatively strong fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score -1.1927: measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios; this absolute value is above the US -1.78 cutoff but that cutoff is US-calibrated and should be considered in Vietnam context. The company is at the 85th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and the M-Score rose by +0.94 year-over-year, signalling a sizeable change in the accounting profile relative to last year.
- DSRI 1.4560 (days-sales-receivable index): measures changes in receivables relative to sales; a value >1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales and can indicate revenue recognition or collection timing differences.
- AQI 2.0203 (asset quality index): measures increases in non-current and other long-lived assets relative to total assets; a value above 1 suggests increased capitalization of items or growth in unusual asset categories that can be used to manage earnings.
- Receivables quality 0.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle 1.4% of total assets (42nd percentile): the receivables-quality metric at the bottom score and DSRI indicate collection or classification concerns; 1.4% of assets are receivables outside the normal trade cycle (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables) which is non-trivial to verify in the notes.
- Revenue quality 19.1/100 and SGI 1.0865 (sales growth index): low revenue quality score plus sales growth >1 implies some revenue growth but with low quality (recognition/timing issues).
- TATA 0.0836 (total accruals to total assets): while relatively small (low accruals), it also indicates there are still accruals present; combined with other signals it means accrual-driven effects cannot be ignored.
- GMI 0.9995 (gross margin index near 1): little deterioration in gross margin is observed year-over-year, which tempers some manipulation red flags but does not remove concerns from receivable and asset-quality signals.
- Altman Z-Score 14.59: measures distance from default using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios; a value of 14.59 is in the ‘safe’ zone and indicates large distance from typical bankruptcy thresholds.
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9: measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 7 indicates relatively strong reported operating performance and balance-sheet improvements.
- TATA 0.0836: total accruals to assets are modest (8.36% of assets), indicating reported earnings are not overwhelmingly driven by accruals.
- DEPI 0.8024 (depreciation index <1): measures changes in depreciation rate; a value <1 suggests increased depreciation expense (or lower useful lives), which is the opposite of a common earnings-management trick that delays expense recognition.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Cơ khí Giao thông Vận tải Sài Gòn holds 51.0%, and two institutional holders together with an apparent related-party pair (Công Ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Thái Bình 10.0% and Ctcp Đầu Tư Thái Bình 10.0%) control large stakes; a foreign institution holds 24.0%. This level of concentrated, mainly institutional/state-related ownership can influence related-party transactions and group reporting practices.
- Compare the FY2025 notes/schedule for 'Receivables' and 'Other receivables' to verify the 1.4% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify whether these are prepayments, loans to related parties, or long-term receivables.
- Reconcile the DSRI drivers by comparing FY2025 trade receivables and sales breakdown (note on revenue recognition and aging schedules) to see why DSRI is 1.4560 and whether days-sales-outstanding or revenue timing explain the change.
- Review the fixed-asset and intangible-asset notes and the reconciliation for FY2025 to examine components behind AQI = 2.0203 (increases in non-current/non-operating asset categories or capitalization policy changes).
- Inspect the cash-flow statement and notes for operating cash flow vs net profit (three-year cash-conversion ratio = 0.78) to identify non-cash items or timing differences explaining why only 78% of reported profit converted to operating cash over three years.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.94
- P/S
- 4.90
- ROE
- 30.3%
- ROA
- 26.3%
- EPS
- 27.898
- BVPS
- 95.456
- Gross Margin
- 60.3%
- Net Margin
- 48.7%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 7.56
- Rev Growth
- +8.6%
- Profit Growth
- +10.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.23
- Div Yield
- 5.9%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 3.0M
- Charter Capital
- 30.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
- Company Type
- CT