TPS
Công ty Cổ phần Bến bãi vận tải Sài Gòn
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 56.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 53.651
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 6 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.8239th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.5%43rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.6452 (76th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.43, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and a material upward trajectory. Specific Beneish drivers include a high DSRI (1.5785) and elevated LVGI (1.2049); however the Altman Z-Score is 10.41 (safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, while statutory loss rules for HOSE/HNX do not apply because the company is listed on UPCoM.
- Beneish M-Score -1.6452 (Vietnam peer percentile 76th; YoY change +0.43): the absolute score is above the US -1.78 cutoff but the report weights the Vietnamese percentile and upward trajectory more heavily.
- Days Sales Receivables Index (DSRI) = 1.5785: indicates receivables or revenue recognition have grown relative to sales versus prior year (DSRI >1).
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100: the earnings-quality module flags receivables-related issues (very low score).
- Revenue quality = 47.2/100 and SGAI = 1.1457: suggests sales growth may be accompanied by higher selling/general/admin expense intensity and weaker revenue quality.
- Cash conversion (3-year OCF / net profit) = 0.82 (38th percentile): profits are not translating to cash as effectively than most peers.
- TATA = 0.0590 (total accruals component non-zero) and AQI = 1.0539 (accruals quality somewhat elevated): some accrual-based earnings management signals exist.
- Altman Z-Score = 10.41: places the company in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance as calculated by Altman-style metrics.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9: indicates generally neutral-to-favourable operating and balance-sheet fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency signals are mixed but not poor).
- Margin quality = 100.0/100: reported margins appear stable/consistent by the earnings-quality component.
- DEPI = 0.9195 and GMI = 0.9819: depreciation and gross margin indices do not show large adverse moves that commonly signal aggressive capitalization or margin deterioration.
The listed shareholder structure is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Cơ khí Giao thông Vận tải Sài Gòn holds 51.0% (institutional, likely state-linked) and four individuals together hold 37.0% (Ngô Quang Trung 15.0%, Ngô Quang Hiển 9.2%, Đoàn Thị Phụng 7.8%, Mai Hồng Quỳ 5.0%). Director-deal registrations in the past year show one sale (5,000 shares) and one purchase (39,000 shares) with net registered volume +0.68% of shares outstanding; registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the line(s) for 'receivables and other receivables outside the trade cycle' in the balance-sheet notes with the related-party transactions note to see whether prepayments, loans or long-term receivables are to group companies or outsiders.
- Reconcile cash flow from operating activities to reported net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes to see why 3-year cash conversion is 0.82 (identify major non-cash items or working-capital drivers).
- Review the revenue recognition policy note and the trade receivables aging schedule to assess drivers behind DSRI = 1.5785 and revenue-quality = 47.2/100.
- Check the register of major shareholders and the shareholder structure note to confirm the 51.0% holding by Tổng Công ty Cơ khí Giao thông Vận tải Sài Gòn and the individual holdings listed; also inspect the director-deal disclosure schedule for the registered transactions.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.82
- P/S
- 2.93
- ROE
- 35.5%
- ROA
- 29.8%
- EPS
- 7.246
- BVPS
- 19.877
- Gross Margin
- 58.4%
- Net Margin
- 37.9%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 3.49
- Rev Growth
- +13.0%
- Profit Growth
- +13.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.76
- Div Yield
- 12.1%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.0M
- Charter Capital
- 50.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Du lịch và Giải trí
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Du lịch & Giải trí
- Sub-industry
- Vận tải hành khách & Du lịch
- Company Type
- CT