Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 30.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 34.117
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.8172nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 9.1%79th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows elevated signals on the Beneish M-Score (M = -1.413) with an 81st percentile versus Vietnamese peers and a year-over-year increase of +1.47, driven chiefly by a high days-sales-receivable index (DSRI = 2.0576) and abnormal asset quality (AQI = 1.8995). At the same time, accrual and cash-conversion metrics score strongly (accruals quality 100/100; cash conversion 100/100) and the Piotroski F‑Score is neutral (6/9); the Altman Z‑Score of 2.92 sits in the “grey” zone for bankruptcy distance.
- Beneish M‑Score = -1.413 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation; US cutoff -1.78 is less applicable in Vietnam; company sits in the 81st percentile versus Vietnamese peers, meaning it ranks more aggressive than ~80% of peers).
- Year‑over‑year M‑Score change = +1.47 (measures trajectory of the manipulation signal; a large positive change is a secondary cue because single-year M‑Scores have low autocorrelation).
- DSRI = 2.0576 (Days‑Sales‑Receivable Index; measures change in receivables relative to sales — value >1 indicates receivables growing faster than sales).
- AQI = 1.8995 (Asset Quality Index; measures growth in non‑current and intangible assets and other items relative to total assets — value >1 indicates increasing non‑standard assets that can hide earnings).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 9.1% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables; 79th percentile among Vietnamese non‑financials).
- Cash conversion (3‑year OCF / net profit) = 1.81 (measures how profit converts to operating cash flow; company is at the 72nd percentile where lower is worse — here the figure indicates profit is not fully turning into cash over the 3‑year window).
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 (measures degree to which earnings are driven by accruals rather than cash flows; a perfect score indicates low accruals risk).
- Cash conversion (single score) = 100.0/100 (high score on short‑term cash metrics indicates good immediate cash generation relative to reported profit).
- Margin quality = 95.3/100 (measures stability/quality of margins; high score indicates margins are not being materially distorted).
- SGI = 1.0448 and GMI = 0.9917 (Sales Growth Index ~1.045 measures sales growth; Gross Margin Index <1 indicates gross margin is not deteriorating; these mitigate some concerns about aggressive revenue recognition).
- TATA = -0.0586 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; a small negative value indicates accruals are not large relative to assets).
- Piotroski F‑Score = 6/9 (measures nine fundamental signals — a 6 is a neutral-to-favourable score rather than a clear deterioration).
The listed parent TRA holds 51.0% (control, disclosed at 2025‑12‑31), indicating a concentrated majority owner; TRA also controls other subsidiaries in the same group (e.g., DBM 58.2%). Outside institutional holdings, several individuals hold single‑digit stakes (largest individual 4.8%). This structure implies group/parent influence over governance and related‑party interactions.
- Compare the line(s) in the 2025 audited balance sheet and notes that support "Receivables — other/long‑term receivables" to reconcile the 9.1% of total assets figure (look for schedules of prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and long‑term receivables).
- Reconcile the DSRI signal by comparing the 2023–2025 revenue note (sales by customer category) with the aging and movement schedule for trade receivables and non‑trade receivables in the 2025 disclosures.
- Inspect the cash flow statement and the notes to verify operating cash flow components for 2023–2025 and confirm the 3‑year cash conversion ratio (OCF / net profit = 1.81) — check large non‑cash adjustments or one‑off items in the cash flow reconciliation.
- Review related‑party transaction disclosures (sales/purchases, loans, prepayments) and the parent/subsidiary schedules to see whether the increases in AQI (1.8995) and non‑trade receivables are linked to intra‑group balances.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.60
- P/S
- 0.65
- ROE
- 18.5%
- ROA
- 8.9%
- EPS
- 3.275
- BVPS
- 18.725
- Gross Margin
- 21.9%
- Net Margin
- 7.1%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.36
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.06
- Div Yield
- 3.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 11.4M
- Charter Capital
- 114B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Y tế
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Dược phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Dược phẩm
- Company Type
- CT