Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 32.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 34.820
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 25 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.1920th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.8%31st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.5656 (78th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +0.73), indicating its accounting is more aggressive than most domestic peers and that accounting metrics have moved materially year-on-year. Key earnings-quality sub-scores show a high DSRI (1.5439 — days-sales-in-receivable index), elevated DEPI (1.4551 — depreciation index), low receivables quality (0.0/100) and weak cash conversion (43.2/100 and three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -0.19), while solvency and fundamentals measures are stronger (Altman Z-Score 3.04 in the “safe” bankruptcy-distance zone; Piotroski F-Score 7/9).
- Beneish M-Score -1.5656 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight accrual- and performance-based ratios); the value is above the US -1.78 threshold and sits at the 78th percentile among Vietnamese peers, suggesting relatively more aggressive accounting in the local context.
- M-Score year-over-year change +0.73 (measures the trajectory of the M-Score); a sizable positive change indicates accounting signals moved materially versus the prior year.
- DSRI = 1.5439 (days-sales-in-receivable index; higher values suggest revenue may be recognized earlier or receivables growing faster than sales).
- DEPI = 1.4551 (depreciation index; >1 indicates depreciation expense fell relative to prior-year asset base, which can inflate margins).
- TATA = 0.0396 (total accruals to total assets; positive accruals indicate earnings not fully backed by cash flows).
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 (measures quality/aging/collectibility of receivables in the earnings-quality model); this is the lowest score and flags concerns about revenue collectibility or classification of receivables.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.19 (20th percentile among VN non-financials; low/negative means reported profit has not converted into operating cash).
- Earnings-quality margin and revenue signals are weak: margin quality 39.5/100 and revenue quality 47.9/100 (indicating profitability and revenue metrics are less robustly supported by underlying cash/recurring performance).
- Altman Z-Score = 3.04 (measures distance to bankruptcy using working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market/book and sales; 3.04 is in the safe zone, suggesting moderate insolvency distance).
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of financial strength; 7 indicates relatively strong operating and financial fundamentals).
- Accruals quality = 84.2/100 (measures how much earnings are explained by accruals vs cash; high score indicates accruals are not extreme on this metric).
- LVGI = 0.9975 (sales growth index close to 1; sales growth dynamics not extreme) and SGI = 1.2247 (sales growth index used in Beneish; growth exists but is not extremely high compared with some aggressive-growth cases).
- AQI = 0.8849 (asset quality index <1 here; within Beneish this can reflect fewer intangible/long-term asset expansions that would mask earnings).
Ownership is concentrated: Transimex (TMS) holds 31.1%, Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Vi Na holds 21.9%, and Tổng Công ty Thủy sản Việt Nam holds 18.0%; together these three account for 71.0% of shares. The company sits within a listed group with several sibling companies (CLX 28.1%, TJC 57.7%, TOT 82.3%, VMT 22.5%, VNF 61.1%, VNT 22.8%) under the same listed parent, suggesting significant group links and potential related-party activity to review. Director-deal registrations (insider intentions) show 4 sale registrations (2 registrants; 4 without volume disclosed) and 15 purchase registrations (3 registrants; aggregate registered volume 16,270,000 shares; 1 registration without a volume) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are registered intentions, not executed trades.
- Compare the change in trade receivables and related-party receivables between FY2024 and FY2025 in the Receivables note and the Related-party transactions note to reconcile the DSRI = 1.5439 and the receivables-quality 0.0/100.
- Reconcile depreciation and PPE schedules with the reported depreciation expense to explain DEPI = 1.4551 (check fixed-asset note for changes in useful lives, revaluations or additions/disposals).
- Review the cash-flow statement and the notes to cash flows to verify the three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -0.19 and the TATA = 0.0396 (check the reconciliation of profit before tax to cash flows from operating activities and the composition of working-capital movements).
- Inspect the Related-party transactions note and the schedules for prepayments/loans to parties to confirm the 0.8% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle, and to identify large prepayments or financing to affiliates.
- Confirm the statutory presentation items cited under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (as amended) in the audit report and the auditor’s opinion; note that the company is listed on UPCoM, where the HOSE/HNX cancellation rule cited does not apply.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.02
- P/S
- 0.61
- ROE
- 20.0%
- ROA
- 9.1%
- EPS
- 3.582
- BVPS
- 19.319
- Gross Margin
- 20.8%
- Net Margin
- 5.6%
- D/E
- 0.71
- Current Ratio
- 1.25
- Rev Growth
- +22.0%
- Profit Growth
- +81.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.00
- Div Yield
- 1.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 13.0M
- Charter Capital
- 130B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
- Company Type
- CT