Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 7.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 8.754
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −11.333rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.9%71st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting-quality concerns: a Beneish M-Score of -0.8622 (89th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.13, an Altman Z-Score of 0.92 (distress zone) and an Earnings-Quality Score of 37.1/100 driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and margin/revenue quality (0.0/100). At the same time, receivables quality is strong (100.0/100), there are no accumulated losses and the statutory loss tests show none met for FY2025.
- Beneish M-Score = -0.8622. The M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios; this company is at the 89th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher percentiles indicate more aggressive accounting) and the M-Score increased by +1.13 year-over-year (the rise signals a material change in the accounting profile). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferrable to Vietnam; use the peer percentile and YoY movement.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 2.4457. GMI > 1 indicates deterioration in gross margins year-over-year; this large value suggests meaningful margin pressure or margin-related accounting changes.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.2759. AQI > 1 indicates rising intangible/fixed/other non-current asset proportions relative to sales, which can reflect capitalization or reclassification of costs.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 1.6621. SGAI > 1 shows SG&A growing faster than sales, implying expense escalation or reclassification.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1116. Positive TATA indicates accrual-based earnings rather than cash-based—consistent with very weak cash conversion (see below).
- Altman Z-Score = 0.92 (distress zone). The Altman Z-Score measures short-to-medium-term bankruptcy distance; a score below 1.8 is commonly considered the distress zone, and 0.92 is low.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -11.33 (3rd percentile among VN non-financials). This extreme negative value means reported profits are not converting to cash and places the company in the bottom 3% of peers on this metric.
- Earnings-Quality Score components — Cash conversion = 0.0/100; Margin quality = 0.0/100; Revenue quality = 0.0/100. These scores indicate weak cash and margin signals and questionable quality of reported revenues.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.9% of total assets (71st percentile). Although not extreme, 5.9% of total assets tied up in prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables warrants scrutiny for related-party flows given Vietnamese group practices.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100. This subscore and the relatively moderate 5.9% of assets in receivables/out-of-cycle items suggest receivables disclosures are not an immediate accounting red flag by the scoring model.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 0.8400. DSRI < 1 implies receivables are not growing faster than sales year-over-year, consistent with the high receivables-quality score.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.7994. DEPI < 1 indicates accumulated depreciation is growing relative to gross PP&E (i.e., no sudden slowing of depreciation to inflate profits).
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0051. LVGI close to 1 implies leverage hasn't materially increased year-over-year per the Beneish components.
Ownership is concentrated: three institutional shareholders together hold 58.0% (Taisei Oncho 25.1%, Sanyo Việt Nam 20.1%, Tổng Công ty Thủy sản Việt Nam 12.8%). A further 10.1% is held by two named companies/individuals (Nguyễn Khoa Đăng 5.1%, Transimex 5.0%). Director-deal registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 show 3 sale registrations (1,614,700 shares) and 8 purchase registrations (5,012,000 shares, one without volume); these are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 cash-flow-from-operations line and the notes on cash flows (direct/indirect) with the profit-and-loss to reconcile the 3-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = -11.33).
- Inspect the notes/schedule for 'long-term receivables', 'prepayments to suppliers' and 'loans receivable' to reconcile the 5.9% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify related-party counterparties.
- Review the accounting policy and fixed-asset note for depreciation and capitalization (DEPI = 0.7994 and AQI = 2.2759) to see whether costs were capitalized or reclassified in FY2025.
- Check the auditor’s report and the statutory loss disclosures (Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e), as amended) to confirm the published statement that none of the statutory loss tests were met for FY2025.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.66
- P/S
- 0.20
- ROE
- 5.7%
- ROA
- 1.2%
- EPS
- 591
- BVPS
- 10.692
- Gross Margin
- 2.7%
- Net Margin
- 2.0%
- D/E
- 1.35
- Current Ratio
- 0.99
- Rev Growth
- +13.6%
- Profit Growth
- +909.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 33.8M
- Charter Capital
- 338B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Công nghiệp nặng
- Sub-industry
- Máy công nghiệp
- Company Type
- CT