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SRF

Công ty Cổ phần Searefico

VietnamCyclicalsHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCông nghiệp nặngHOSECT
7.100
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+23.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
7.100
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
8.754

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Công nghiệp nặng→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Công nghiệp nặng” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→56.10B
Fair EV/EBITDA→15.1x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→7.100
Calibrated value vs last close→+23.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
8.754
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA56.1 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,2581,2221,3831,3821,3331,4431,4901,3491,4211,079903746613···
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·888325423960635155140108168214247···
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·364368118110178152164177231187156···
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·698746787727782882955841821543377304179···
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·103506152503181251912171718···
Net Inventories
·402329246275333283317279261186165189175···
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·440332249278334284322283265190168192176···
Other current assets
·332128234637151022136236···
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000171···
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·525373370349521514420285281256197181116···
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·2233222111100···
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·2233222111100···
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·1792372472542732709710510475596872···
Tangible fixed assets
·1672322412502702699610410474586367···
Leased assets
·0.80.91.01000000000···
Intagible fixed assets
·11453320.40.30.710.655···
Investment in properties
·414366000000000···
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·15574616615914913012811894720···
Investments in associate companies
·1555221611521411241109988720···
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·023347861819600···
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·00−20000000000···
Other non-current assets
·35474547474741403838384044···
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·17313033323435343536363841···
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,7831,5951,7531,7311,8531,9561,9101,6341,7011,3351,101927729···
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1,3401,1611,3211,3021,2801,4201,4051,1271,220887687540365···
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1,2701,0841,2471,2211,1831,3321,3131,1111,200868677528329···
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·57040947443560771163256360844235424994···
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·174126912081095211270114731079987···
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·7077748097879216191991335···
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·287171769181871212123615···
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·443434432429574537505507482448414387365···
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·443434432429574537505507482448414387365···
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·356356356356356325325325325244244244163···
Other Reserves
·9994444440000···
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·58888855547463332···
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·210.20.40.4145152154172130115825739···
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,7831,5951,7531,7311,8531,9561,9101,6341,7011,3351,101927729···
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00.040.20000000000···
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·356356356356356325325325325244244244163···
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·8290898990764529160000···

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
37
Weak
Accrual Quality
57
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −0.86 · 89th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.13
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.840
GMI
2.446
AQI
2.276
SGI
1.115
DEPI
0.799
SGAI
1.662
TATA
0.112
LVGI
1.005

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−11.333rd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
5.9%71st pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows multiple accounting-quality concerns: a Beneish M-Score of -0.8622 (89th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.13, an Altman Z-Score of 0.92 (distress zone) and an Earnings-Quality Score of 37.1/100 driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and margin/revenue quality (0.0/100). At the same time, receivables quality is strong (100.0/100), there are no accumulated losses and the statutory loss tests show none met for FY2025.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -0.8622. The M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios; this company is at the 89th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher percentiles indicate more aggressive accounting) and the M-Score increased by +1.13 year-over-year (the rise signals a material change in the accounting profile). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferrable to Vietnam; use the peer percentile and YoY movement.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 2.4457. GMI > 1 indicates deterioration in gross margins year-over-year; this large value suggests meaningful margin pressure or margin-related accounting changes.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.2759. AQI > 1 indicates rising intangible/fixed/other non-current asset proportions relative to sales, which can reflect capitalization or reclassification of costs.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 1.6621. SGAI > 1 shows SG&A growing faster than sales, implying expense escalation or reclassification.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1116. Positive TATA indicates accrual-based earnings rather than cash-based—consistent with very weak cash conversion (see below).
  • Altman Z-Score = 0.92 (distress zone). The Altman Z-Score measures short-to-medium-term bankruptcy distance; a score below 1.8 is commonly considered the distress zone, and 0.92 is low.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -11.33 (3rd percentile among VN non-financials). This extreme negative value means reported profits are not converting to cash and places the company in the bottom 3% of peers on this metric.
  • Earnings-Quality Score components — Cash conversion = 0.0/100; Margin quality = 0.0/100; Revenue quality = 0.0/100. These scores indicate weak cash and margin signals and questionable quality of reported revenues.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.9% of total assets (71st percentile). Although not extreme, 5.9% of total assets tied up in prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables warrants scrutiny for related-party flows given Vietnamese group practices.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100. This subscore and the relatively moderate 5.9% of assets in receivables/out-of-cycle items suggest receivables disclosures are not an immediate accounting red flag by the scoring model.
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 0.8400. DSRI < 1 implies receivables are not growing faster than sales year-over-year, consistent with the high receivables-quality score.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.7994. DEPI < 1 indicates accumulated depreciation is growing relative to gross PP&E (i.e., no sudden slowing of depreciation to inflate profits).
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0051. LVGI close to 1 implies leverage hasn't materially increased year-over-year per the Beneish components.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: three institutional shareholders together hold 58.0% (Taisei Oncho 25.1%, Sanyo Việt Nam 20.1%, Tổng Công ty Thủy sản Việt Nam 12.8%). A further 10.1% is held by two named companies/individuals (Nguyễn Khoa Đăng 5.1%, Transimex 5.0%). Director-deal registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 show 3 sale registrations (1,614,700 shares) and 8 purchase registrations (5,012,000 shares, one without volume); these are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 cash-flow-from-operations line and the notes on cash flows (direct/indirect) with the profit-and-loss to reconcile the 3-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = -11.33).
  • Inspect the notes/schedule for 'long-term receivables', 'prepayments to suppliers' and 'loans receivable' to reconcile the 5.9% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify related-party counterparties.
  • Review the accounting policy and fixed-asset note for depreciation and capitalization (DEPI = 0.7994 and AQI = 2.2759) to see whether costs were capitalized or reclassified in FY2025.
  • Check the auditor’s report and the statutory loss disclosures (Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e), as amended) to confirm the published statement that none of the statutory loss tests were met for FY2025.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.92
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.25
Negative
Composite
56
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.78×Interest Burden0.62×Op. Margin0.04×Turnover0.68×Leverage4.03=ROE5.5%
Price Risk
Momentum
+4.8%
Volatility
38.5%
Max Drawdown
−23.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.99P/E
P/B
0.66
P/S
0.20
ROE
5.7%
ROA
1.2%
EPS
591
BVPS
10.692
Gross Margin
2.7%
Net Margin
2.0%
D/E
1.35
Current Ratio
0.99
Rev Growth
+13.6%
Profit Growth
+909.8%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
33.8M
Charter Capital
338B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Máy công nghiệp
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

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