Back to Dashboard

CAN

Công ty Cổ phần Đồ hộp Hạ Long

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngSản xuất thực phẩmHNXCT
22.600
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+36.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
22.600
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
30.813

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
  • Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
52.81%
+
Kd(1-t)
3.67%
x
D/(D+E)
47.19%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→64.86B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→22.600
Calibrated value vs last close→+36.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
30.813
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow64.9 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
8.0%30.81330.81330.81330.81330.813
9.0%30.81330.81330.81330.81330.813
10.0%30.81330.81330.81330.81330.813
11.0%30.81330.81330.81330.81330.813
12.0%30.81330.81330.81330.81330.813
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·335242353433390331238180156158170137122···
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1422131212141484812171422···
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·45800000052222···
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·95626367926237171636271710···
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·16746362220.6220.8···
Net Inventories
·1701452743462742491821538410612210087···
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1901482783502802521851609010712310188···
Other current assets
·115381275223230.6···
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.70.3···
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·53455057656656636465646058···
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.70.70.60.60.90.60.60.60.40.40.300···
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.70.70.60.60.90.60.60.60.40.40.300···
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·49414652595551555662605857···
Tangible fixed assets
·36283339454138424450484443···
Intagible fixed assets
·13131313131413131313131313···
Other non-current assets
·4334534772210.6···
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·333453477220.80.4···
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·388287403490455397293242220223234196179···
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·2411412513423072681731341051101138173···
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·226136246337302263169128981101138072···
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·123761862361591209258384122611···
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·7234322541332···
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·14555554660.30.30.30.3···
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·90.10.30.40.510000000···
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·148146152148148130120108115113121116107···
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·148146152148148130120108115113121116107···
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·50505050505050505050505050···
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·29292929292929292929281412···
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·53515753533525132118272518···
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·388287403490455397293242220223234196179···
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·50505050505050505050505050···
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
30
Weak
Accrual Quality
99
Cash Conversion
21
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −2.11 · 61st pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.32
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.571
GMI
0.974
AQI
0.852
SGI
0.974
DEPI
1.227
SGAI
1.053
TATA
0.003
LVGI
1.280

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
12.2397th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
4.2%63rd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

CAN's Beneish M-Score is -2.112, which sits at the 61st percentile versus Vietnamese peers and has risen by +2.32 year-over-year; this suggests accounting-related metrics have moved toward more aggressive values relative to peers, though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly decisive in the Vietnamese context. Key component signals: DSRI = 1.5707 (days/sales receivables rising), DEPI = 1.2272 (slower depreciation), LVGI = 1.2802 (larger asset growth), and TATA = 0.0031 (little accrual-based net income manipulation measured), while the Earnings-Quality composite is low at 30.0/100 driven by very weak receivables, margin and revenue quality scores. The Altman Z-Score of 2.66 places the company in the grey zone for bankruptcy distance and the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is neutral.

Red Flags
  • Days Sales Receivables Index (DSRI) = 1.5707: measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales; a value >1 suggests receivables are rising relative to sales and may indicate revenue recognition or collection issues.
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.2% of total assets (63rd percentile): the earnings-quality metric and the Vietnamese peer rank both signal weak receivable quality, with 4.2% of assets classified as prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables rather than trade receivables.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 12.23 (97th percentile): measures how well reported profits convert into cash; this low ratio (near the worst among peers) indicates profit is not translating into operating cash.
  • DEPI = 1.2272 (Depreciation Index >1): measures whether depreciation expense is falling relative to prior-year gross PPE; a value >1 can indicate slower charge-off of asset cost or changed estimate/policy that inflates profits.
  • LVGI = 1.2802 (Leverage/Asset growth index >1): measures abnormal asset growth versus sales; elevated value suggests asset growth outpacing revenue, which can reflect capitalization or related-party asset placements.
  • Earnings-Quality overall = 30.0/100, with Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100: signals that margins and revenue patterns score poorly on the chosen metrics used to assess sustainable earnings.
Positive Signals
  • TATA (Total Accruals to total assets) = 0.0031: measures proportion of accruals in net income; a near-zero value indicates accruals are a small portion of earnings in the year measured.
  • Accruals quality = 98.8/100: indicates that accruals, where present, appear high-quality by the applied metric.
  • GMI = 0.9744 and SGI = 0.9735 (Gross Margin Index <1 and Sales Growth Index <1): GMI <1 indicates gross margins improved year-over-year, and SGI <1 indicates sales contracted slightly; these do not match patterns of aggressive revenue growth-driven manipulation.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; and parent net loss = 0 consecutive years up to FY2025: the statutory balance-sheet and profit indicators show the company is not showing statutory loss triggers or negative equity on published statements.
Ownership Risk

The largest shareholder is Tổng Công ty Thủy sản Việt Nam at 27.8% (an institutional/majority-group participant), with three named individuals holding 6.7%, 3.6% and smaller stakes; ownership is moderately concentrated under a large institutional shareholder which, given Vietnamese group and SOE contexts, can influence related-party transactions and strategic accounting decisions. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data supplied.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the notes on trade receivables, loans to/from related parties and other receivables to quantify the 4.2% of total assets classified outside the trade cycle (look for schedules labelled 'Other receivables', 'Loans to related parties' or 'Prepayments').
  • Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit in the cash-flow statement and the reconciliation note to confirm the components driving the 12.23 three-year cash-conversion ratio (check depreciation, changes in working capital, and non-cash adjustments).
  • Inspect the fixed-asset note and depreciation policies to understand the drivers of DEPI = 1.2272 (look for changes in useful lives, salvage values, or capitalization policies and year-over-year gross PPE and accumulated depreciation schedules).
  • Review related-party transaction disclosures and the group/ownership note to see whether asset growth (LVGI = 1.2802) or receivable/prepayment balances involve the parent, subsidiaries, or the 27.8% institutional shareholder's group entities.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.66
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.95
Negative
Composite
44
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.33×Interest Burden1.21×Op. Margin0.01×Turnover1.71×Leverage2.63=ROE1.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
−42.6%
Volatility
86.3%
Max Drawdown
−67.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
69.67P/E
P/B
0.77
P/S
0.17
ROE
1.1%
ROA
0.5%
EPS
324
BVPS
29.514
Gross Margin
20.7%
Net Margin
0.2%
D/E
0.89
Current Ratio
1.48
Rev Growth
+1.9%
Profit Growth
−8.5%
EV/EBITDA
16.29
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
5.0M
Charter Capital
50.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Thực phẩm
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →