Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 22.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 30.813
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 11 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 12.2397th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.2%63rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
CAN's Beneish M-Score is -2.112, which sits at the 61st percentile versus Vietnamese peers and has risen by +2.32 year-over-year; this suggests accounting-related metrics have moved toward more aggressive values relative to peers, though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly decisive in the Vietnamese context. Key component signals: DSRI = 1.5707 (days/sales receivables rising), DEPI = 1.2272 (slower depreciation), LVGI = 1.2802 (larger asset growth), and TATA = 0.0031 (little accrual-based net income manipulation measured), while the Earnings-Quality composite is low at 30.0/100 driven by very weak receivables, margin and revenue quality scores. The Altman Z-Score of 2.66 places the company in the grey zone for bankruptcy distance and the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is neutral.
- Days Sales Receivables Index (DSRI) = 1.5707: measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales; a value >1 suggests receivables are rising relative to sales and may indicate revenue recognition or collection issues.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.2% of total assets (63rd percentile): the earnings-quality metric and the Vietnamese peer rank both signal weak receivable quality, with 4.2% of assets classified as prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables rather than trade receivables.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 12.23 (97th percentile): measures how well reported profits convert into cash; this low ratio (near the worst among peers) indicates profit is not translating into operating cash.
- DEPI = 1.2272 (Depreciation Index >1): measures whether depreciation expense is falling relative to prior-year gross PPE; a value >1 can indicate slower charge-off of asset cost or changed estimate/policy that inflates profits.
- LVGI = 1.2802 (Leverage/Asset growth index >1): measures abnormal asset growth versus sales; elevated value suggests asset growth outpacing revenue, which can reflect capitalization or related-party asset placements.
- Earnings-Quality overall = 30.0/100, with Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100: signals that margins and revenue patterns score poorly on the chosen metrics used to assess sustainable earnings.
- TATA (Total Accruals to total assets) = 0.0031: measures proportion of accruals in net income; a near-zero value indicates accruals are a small portion of earnings in the year measured.
- Accruals quality = 98.8/100: indicates that accruals, where present, appear high-quality by the applied metric.
- GMI = 0.9744 and SGI = 0.9735 (Gross Margin Index <1 and Sales Growth Index <1): GMI <1 indicates gross margins improved year-over-year, and SGI <1 indicates sales contracted slightly; these do not match patterns of aggressive revenue growth-driven manipulation.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; and parent net loss = 0 consecutive years up to FY2025: the statutory balance-sheet and profit indicators show the company is not showing statutory loss triggers or negative equity on published statements.
The largest shareholder is Tổng Công ty Thủy sản Việt Nam at 27.8% (an institutional/majority-group participant), with three named individuals holding 6.7%, 3.6% and smaller stakes; ownership is moderately concentrated under a large institutional shareholder which, given Vietnamese group and SOE contexts, can influence related-party transactions and strategic accounting decisions. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data supplied.
- Compare the notes on trade receivables, loans to/from related parties and other receivables to quantify the 4.2% of total assets classified outside the trade cycle (look for schedules labelled 'Other receivables', 'Loans to related parties' or 'Prepayments').
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit in the cash-flow statement and the reconciliation note to confirm the components driving the 12.23 three-year cash-conversion ratio (check depreciation, changes in working capital, and non-cash adjustments).
- Inspect the fixed-asset note and depreciation policies to understand the drivers of DEPI = 1.2272 (look for changes in useful lives, salvage values, or capitalization policies and year-over-year gross PPE and accumulated depreciation schedules).
- Review related-party transaction disclosures and the group/ownership note to see whether asset growth (LVGI = 1.2802) or receivable/prepayment balances involve the parent, subsidiaries, or the 27.8% institutional shareholder's group entities.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.77
- P/S
- 0.17
- ROE
- 1.1%
- ROA
- 0.5%
- EPS
- 324
- BVPS
- 29.514
- Gross Margin
- 20.7%
- Net Margin
- 0.2%
- D/E
- 0.89
- Current Ratio
- 1.48
- Rev Growth
- +1.9%
- Profit Growth
- −8.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 16.29
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.0M
- Charter Capital
- 50.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Thực phẩm
- Company Type
- CT