TOT

Công ty Cổ phần Transimex Logistics

VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiHNXCT

13.700

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

−3.7%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 13.700
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 13.196

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details

Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→25.60B

Fair EV/EBITDA→6.8x

Years of data→7

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→13.700

Calibrated value vs last close→−3.7%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

13.196

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Mid-cycle EBITDA25.6 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7

TOT among Construction

Every stock in the sector, TOT marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is TOT. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	145	99	86	86	37	32	34	24	20	17	15	18
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	9	13	18	7	9	7	13	4	5	3	4	4
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	37	31	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	97	52	64	76	26	22	16	19	14	13	8	11
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	0.7	0.3	5	7	1	0.01	0.3	0	0.3	0.02	0.1	0.08
Net Inventories	·	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3
Other current assets	·	2	2	3	3	2	2	3	1	1	0.7	3	3
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	120	127	98	66	38	46	36	40	38	40	45	38
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	1.0	0.8	0.9	0.2	0.2	0.2	0	0	0	0.3	0.3	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	1.0	0.8	0.9	0.2	0.2	0	0	0	0	0.3	0.3	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	109	123	93	65	37	34	35	37	32	37	28	36
Tangible fixed assets	·	109	123	93	65	37	34	35	37	32	37	28	36
Intagible fixed assets	·	0.02	0.04	0.07	0.09	0	0.01	0.02	0.04	0	0	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	2	3	0.4	0.8	0.8	2	1	2	4	3	2	2
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	2	3	0.4	0.8	0.8	2	1	2	4	3	2	0.9
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	265	226	184	153	75	78	69	64	58	56	60	56
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	124	91	93	82	12	15	11	9	9	10	41	40
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	106	61	90	80	12	15	8	9	9	10	27	27
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	40	8	10	27	3	6	0	0.3	2	7	6	6
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0.3	0.08	0.09	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	0	0
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	18	30	3	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	13	13
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	18	30	3	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	13	13
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)	·	141	135	90	71	63	63	58	55	49	46	20	15
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	141	135	90	71	63	63	58	55	49	46	20	15
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	92	92	60	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	28	28
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	42	36	30	16	8	8	3	0.1	−6	−9	−8	−13
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	265	226	184	153	75	78	69	64	58	56	60	56
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	92	92	60	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	28	28

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

75th–90th

M −1.19 · 85th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +2.01

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.649

GMI

1.013

AQI

2.303

SGI

1.137

DEPI

0.919

SGAI

0.882

TATA

0.018

LVGI

1.164

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 1.8172nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 0.7%28th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.1879 (85th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +2.01, indicating relatively more aggressive accounting metrics among Vietnamese peers driven mainly by DSRI (1.6487) and AQI (2.3034). Other signals are mixed: Altman Z‑Score 3.45 (safe zone), Piotroski F‑Score 4/9 (neutral), strong accruals quality (93.0/100) but very weak receivables and revenue quality (0.0/100 and 3.4/100 respectively).

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score -1.1879, Vietnam peer percentile 85th and YoY change +2.01 — the M-Score is higher (more aggressive) than most Vietnamese peers and has trended up; note the US cutoff -1.78 is not directly applicable to Vn context.
DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 1.6487 — receivables growth outpacing sales, a primary driver of the M-Score.
AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.3034 — a large rise in non-current/other assets relative to sales, consistent with reclassification, capitalisation or increases in long‑term receivables/prepayments.
Revenue quality = 3.4/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 — very low scores indicating reported revenue and receivables patterns that weaken confidence in revenue durability and collectability.
Cash conversion (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.81 (72nd percentile) — operating cash has converted to profit less efficiently than most peers (a higher ratio here indicates profit not turning into cash).

Positive Signals

Accruals quality = 93.0/100 — accrual measures (net accruals relative to assets/profit) suggest reported earnings are not being driven by abnormal accruals.
TATA (total accruals) = 0.0176 — a small absolute total accruals figure consistent with the high accruals quality score.
Altman Z‑Score = 3.45 — places the company in the 'safe' zone for bankruptcy distance under the Altman model.
No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent profit not a net loss for 0 consecutive years up to FY2025 — the statutory balance-sheet and profit tests reported show no signs of the specific loss triggers listed under Decree 155/2020 (amended).

Ownership Risk

Control is highly concentrated: TMS (Công ty Cổ phần Transimex) holds 82.3% (reported 2026-06-30), giving the listed parent decisive control. The remaining free float is small (largest individual holders 1.8%, 1.2%, 1.0%, 0.9%). Several other listed companies are within the same group (TMS holds material stakes in CLX 28.1%, TJC 57.7%, VNF 61.1%, etc.), indicating a group structure where related‑party transactions and intra‑group balances can be economically significant.

To check in the filings

Compare the year‑by‑year breakdown of 'Receivables' and 'Other long‑term receivables / prepayments to suppliers' in the notes to the 2025 audited financial statements; quantify the components that drove AQI = 2.3034 and receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.7% of total assets.
Reconcile revenue growth and the DSRI: compare sales by segment to accounts receivable ageing schedules and the disclosure that supports DSRI = 1.6487 to see whether receivables growth is due to timing, new business, or reclassification.
Check the cash flow statement and the reconciliation of profit to operating cash flow for the last three years to verify the 3‑year cash conversion ratio = 1.81 and the TATA = 0.0176 (inspect the components of accruals used in the reconciliation).
Review related‑party disclosures and schedules (loans to/from related parties, guarantees, intra‑group balances) given the 82.3% parent ownership and the group holdings (TMS stakes in CLX, TJC, VNF, etc.) to identify any material intra‑group receivables or prepayments that could affect AQI and receivables quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.45

Safe Zone

Sharpe

−0.80

Negative

Composite

50 to 69

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.03×Op. Margin0.10×Turnover1.09×Leverage1.88=ROE17.2%

Price Risk

Momentum

−17.5%

Volatility

36.2%

Max Drawdown

−32.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

5.91P/E

P/B: 1.02
P/S: 0.49
ROE: 17.6%
ROA: 9.9%
EPS: 2.639
BVPS: 15.333
Gross Margin: 20.0%
Net Margin: 8.4%
D/E: 0.41
Current Ratio: 1.37
Rev Growth: +13.7%
Profit Growth: +5.1%
EV/EBITDA: 3.07
Div Yield: 12.8%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 10.4M
Charter Capital: 104B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3): Vận tải
Sub-industry: Dịch vụ vận tải
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for TOT. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Transimex

TMS

82.3%

8.6M

2026-06-30

Bùi Minh Tuấn

Indiv

1.8%

187,155

2026-06-30

Bùi Tuấn Ngọc

Indiv

1.2%

126,693

2026-06-30

Lê Duy Hiệp

Indiv

1.0%

54,820

2021-06-30

Nguyễn Chí Đức

Indiv

0.9%

90,400

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Văn Quy

Indiv

0.4%

32,549

2024-12-31

Trịnh Anh Tuấn

Indiv

0.3%

25,996

2026-06-30

Tôn Thất Hưng

Indiv

0.2%

22,506

2024-12-31

Phạm Anh Tuấn

Indiv

0.1%

8,800

2024-06-30

Board & Management

Bùi Tuấn Ngọc1.2%

Chairman of Management Board

Lê Duy Hiệp1.0%

Member of Management Board

Nguyễn Chí Đức0.9%

Member of Management Board

Trịnh Anh Tuấn0.3%

Member of Management Board/Director

Nguyễn Thị Bích Liên

Independent Member of Management Board

Top connections

VNF82.3%TJC82.3%SPV82.3%CLX82.3%VNT82.3%VMT82.3%PDN82.3%SRF82.3%VNL82.3%TMS14.5%

Listed group

TMSCông ty Cổ phần Transimex
Parent: holds over 50%
82.3%
2026-06-30

Also held by TMS:CLX SPV TJC VMT VNF VNT

Read from the shareholder lists: control above 50% of the shares (VAS 25), significant influence at 20% or more (VAS 07). Each date is that of the disclosure.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

TOT among Construction

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Listed group

Ownership network

Listed group

TOT among Construction