Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 29.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 31.984
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.2957th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.6%26th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting signals that warrant scrutiny: a Beneish M-Score of -0.2647 (92nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +2.01) indicates relatively more aggressive accounting compared with domestic peers, driven by a high AQI (4.9745) and elevated DSRI (1.1795). At the same time, solvency and liquidity signals are mixed — an Altman Z-Score of 4.23 places it in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance, while the Piotroski F-Score is weak at 2/9 and the Earnings-Quality composite is 49.1/100 with particular weaknesses in receivables quality (24.1/100) and margin quality (29.0/100).
- Beneish M-Score -0.2647 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation; the company is in the 92nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers and the M-Score rose by +2.01 year-on-year, indicating an upward trajectory in the manipulation signal).
- AQI (accrual quality index) = 4.9745 (measures unusual accrual patterns; this very high value is a primary contributor to the M-Score increase).
- DSRI (days' sales in receivables index) = 1.1795 (measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value >1 can signal revenue recognition or collection issues).
- Receivables quality = 24.1/100 (measures the quality and collectability of receivables; this low score is consistent with the elevated DSRI).
- Margin quality = 29.0/100 and Revenue quality = 41.9/100 (both low, indicating margins and reported revenues may be of lower quality).
- Piotroski F-Score = 2/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of financial strength; a score of 2 indicates weak operating and financial fundamentals).
- Earnings-quality Cash conversion component = 62.3/100 and three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.29 (57th percentile) — profits are not converting strongly into operating cash relative to peers.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.23 (measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and earnings items; this places the company in the safe zone on that metric).
- Accruals quality = 88.0/100 (measures how much earnings are driven by accruals vs cash; a high score suggests relatively better accrual reporting quality).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.6% of total assets (26th percentile) (measures non-trade receivables such as loans, long-term receivables or prepayments; the low percentage reduces concern about large off-cycle receivables).
- No accumulated losses and zero consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive (these are direct balance-sheet facts showing retained earnings and equity are not in deficit).
The listed parent VCG holds 51.0% (control) as of 2026-06-30, with two other state/utility-style institutional holders (Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Nước Sạch Hà Nội 23.7%, Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Nước sạch Sông Đà 15.1%) giving a concentrated ownership profile dominated by the state-linked group. Several other operating subsidiaries are held by the same parent, indicating potential group transactions and related-party flows to check.
- Compare the growth in trade receivables and the DSRI drivers: inspect the receivables note and the revenue recognition policy in the FY2025 annual report to reconcile revenue growth with receivable growth.
- Compare operating cash flow and components in the cash-flow statement with net profit: trace reconciling items (changes in working capital, non-cash expenses) that produce the three-year cash conversion ratio of 1.29.
- Review the note(s) on related-party transactions, loans to/from affiliates and 'other receivables' to verify the composition of the 0.6% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Examine the accrual-related line items (provisions, depreciation, deferred revenue, and inventory accounting) and the auditor’s report to understand the drivers of the high AQI (4.9745) and the accruals-quality score of 88.0/100.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.68
- P/S
- 1.29
- ROE
- 23.0%
- ROA
- 14.8%
- EPS
- 3.754
- BVPS
- 17.818
- Gross Margin
- 22.6%
- Net Margin
- 16.1%
- D/E
- 0.17
- Current Ratio
- 1.79
- Rev Growth
- +4.1%
- Profit Growth
- −25.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.98
- Div Yield
- 2.7%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 48.0M
- Charter Capital
- 480B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Nước & Khí đốt
- Sub-industry
- Nước
- Company Type
- CT