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Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Nam Long

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
21.150
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+22.5%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
21.150
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
25.909

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.002
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.50%
Ke
11.50%
x
E/(D+E)
68.90%
+
Kd(1-t)
3.61%
x
D/(D+E)
31.10%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→21.150
Calibrated value vs last close→+22.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
25.909
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%high risk: no
Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow1.2 nghìn tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
8.0%28.51828.51828.51828.51828.518
9.0%28.51828.51828.51828.51828.518
10.0%27.54527.54527.54527.95728.518
11.0%25.90925.97227.54527.54527.545
12.0%25.82125.82125.82125.82125.909
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·19,24627,54925,31323,72021,7849,5707,9237,3206,7795,8284,6993,3912,865
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·6,8145,4432,5403,7733,1121,0731,9012,0842,082932423374167
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1,3526231,050987744356716603917163
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·1,8912,7973,6373,5701,9342,2281,5481,8335791,095516320276
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·3714929661,2325244787433081205572629665
Net Inventories
·8,67817,99317,35314,83015,4906,0694,2983,2613,8843,6983,6732,6102,360
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·8,74218,06117,42114,90015,5616,0694,2983,2613,8843,7003,6732,6102,360
Other current assets
·51169273355950516410912617364707160
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000004438
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·7,3182,7693,2983,3651,8334,0732,9812,2541,127381323539459
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·1,18510131182102427199761258600
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·7501013119102354160401258500
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·108143141154787777525655505553
Tangible fixed assets
·59725867595858404442394342
Intagible fixed assets
·48718287192019131313121111
Investment in properties
·445316305337359260185383339576061
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·5,0381,7942,2202,1368733,2621,8091,6847553130290260
Investments in associate companies
·5,0361,7922,2172,0348043,2601,8061,6807502524157161
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·2222222466613499
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·000000000−0.2−0.5−1−0.6
Goodwill
·00000000000242
Other non-current assets
·52750057570242233328927120613110010983
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·49991243571941041712348101816
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·26,56530,31828,61127,08523,61813,64310,9049,5747,9066,2095,0223,9293,324
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·11,74015,74915,07813,77010,0906,9224,7044,2904,1833,0622,5961,9381,742
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·6,45410,2279,8868,8516,3184,4393,0242,6943,0612,1792,1021,4761,449
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·1,0172,9582,4021,8041,29393263201216354225180511
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·2,5883,0243,8153,2712,4632,0981,3221,0801,250652999594364
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·5,2865,5235,1924,9193,7722,4831,6801,5961,123882494463293
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·4,5054,0033,7053,3752,3151,525806806229350413438259
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·14,82414,56913,53313,31513,5286,7206,2005,2853,7233,1472,4261,9341,290
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·14,82414,56913,53313,31513,5286,7206,2005,2853,7233,1472,4261,9341,290
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·4,8513,8483,8483,8413,8292,8532,5972,3911,5721,4211,4161,340955
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·111111111111111111111132
Other Reserves
·2222222211123
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·3,6563,1712,8792,4932,4442,1321,8391,294864578358219199
Minority Interest
·0000000000058292
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·26,56530,31828,61127,08523,61813,64310,9049,5747,9066,2095,0223,9293,324
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·75951061068914502374242000
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·4350007307439360000
Convertible bonds (Bn. VND)
·00000000471463000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·4,8513,8483,8483,8413,8292,8532,5972,3911,5721,4211,4161,340955
Good will (Bn. VND)
·0038125749141900
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·2,1624,8944,1504,3254,5981,1171,14568480366420900

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
45
Weak
Accrual Quality
73
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
48
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.62 · 77th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.25
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.862
GMI
1.017
AQI
3.134
SGI
0.784
DEPI
0.801
SGAI
1.182
TATA
0.068
LVGI
0.879

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.6416th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
6.1%72nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.6223 (76th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.25, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most domestic peers and that have moved toward greater aggressiveness. Earnings-quality signals are mixed: accruals and receivables look good (72.6/100 and 100/100) while cash conversion and revenue quality score 0/100. The Altman Z-Score is 1.90 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is weak at 2/9.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.6223 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation; the company's score is above the US -1.78 threshold but that threshold is US-calibrated — among Vietnamese peers the company is at the 76th percentile, meaning 24% of peers are more aggressive and ~28% of Vietnamese names exceed the US cutoff).
  • Year-over-year M-Score change = +0.25 (measures trajectory of the manipulation-risk signal; a positive change shows the Beneish indicators have moved toward more aggressive accounting compared with last year).
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 3.1339 (measures increases in non-current asset lines relative to sales; a large AQI can reflect reclassification of costs or capitalisation that increases reported profit), and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.8790 (measures change in leverage; less than 1 here but combined with AQI suggests asset-side reclassifications).
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0685 (measures accrual intensity; positive accruals mean earnings exceed cash flows), and operating cash conversion (three-year OCF / net profit) = -0.64 (16th percentile among VN peers) — profit is not converting into cash over the three-year window.
  • Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion = 0.0/100 in the Earnings Quality Score (these metrics measure the extent to which reported revenue and profits are supported by cash and recurring drivers; both scoring zero is a notable concern).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 2/9 (measures nine fundamental health signals; a low score indicates weak profitability, leverage/liquidity improvements or operating efficiency by Piotroski's criteria).
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.90 (grey zone; measures distance to financial distress using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios).
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (this component measures the extent receivables behaviour is consistent with reported revenue; a perfect score indicates no flagged receivable abnormalities by the applied metric).
  • Accruals quality = 72.6/100 (measures the relative size and stability of accruals versus peers; a higher score indicates accruals are not unusually large or volatile).
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 0.8619 (measures receivables relative to sales; below 1 suggests receivables are declining relative to sales rather than ballooning).
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.7845 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.8008 (SGI <1 shows sales did not grow rapidly year-over-year; DEPI <1 indicates depreciation policies did not shorten life or reduce depreciation expense relative to prior year).
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minorities) is positive; parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025 (these are statutory statement facts showing the company has not reported cumulative statutory losses and equity remains positive).
Ownership Risk

Shareholdings are moderately concentrated among individuals and institutions: the largest individual shareholder holds 7.9% (Nguyễn Xuân Quang), with several institutional holders at 7.6%, 5.7%, 4.5% and 4.3%. There is no single controlling majority disclosed; director-deal registrations show 27 purchase registrations (16 registrants) and 0 sale registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are exchange-registered intentions to trade, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the three-year operating cash flows to reported net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and management discussion to reconcile the cash conversion ratio (OCF / net profit = -0.64).
  • Open the notes on receivables, prepayments and other non-trade receivables to verify the composition of the 6.1% of total assets classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (loans receivable, long-term receivables, prepayments to suppliers).
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the depreciation/amortisation policy note to review asset capitalisation and the component behind AQI = 3.1339 and DEPI = 0.8008.
  • Review related-party disclosures and the schedule of transactions with affiliates (loans to/from related parties, guarantees, and large prepayments) to assess whether cash, receivables or asset reclassifications involve group entities.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.90
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−1.36
Negative
Composite
57
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.03×Op. Margin0.20×Turnover0.21×Leverage1.79=ROE6.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
−37.6%
Volatility
32.3%
Max Drawdown
−49.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
15.22P/E
P/B
0.84
P/S
1.89
ROE
6.3%
ROA
2.5%
EPS
1.446
BVPS
26.102
Gross Margin
41.8%
Net Margin
16.8%
D/E
0.37
Current Ratio
2.98
Rev Growth
−21.6%
Profit Growth
+35.4%
EV/EBITDA
9.13
Div Yield
1.8%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
485M
Charter Capital
4,851B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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