Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 21.150
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 25.909
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.6416th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 6.1%72nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.6223 (76th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.25, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most domestic peers and that have moved toward greater aggressiveness. Earnings-quality signals are mixed: accruals and receivables look good (72.6/100 and 100/100) while cash conversion and revenue quality score 0/100. The Altman Z-Score is 1.90 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is weak at 2/9.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.6223 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation; the company's score is above the US -1.78 threshold but that threshold is US-calibrated — among Vietnamese peers the company is at the 76th percentile, meaning 24% of peers are more aggressive and ~28% of Vietnamese names exceed the US cutoff).
- Year-over-year M-Score change = +0.25 (measures trajectory of the manipulation-risk signal; a positive change shows the Beneish indicators have moved toward more aggressive accounting compared with last year).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 3.1339 (measures increases in non-current asset lines relative to sales; a large AQI can reflect reclassification of costs or capitalisation that increases reported profit), and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.8790 (measures change in leverage; less than 1 here but combined with AQI suggests asset-side reclassifications).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0685 (measures accrual intensity; positive accruals mean earnings exceed cash flows), and operating cash conversion (three-year OCF / net profit) = -0.64 (16th percentile among VN peers) — profit is not converting into cash over the three-year window.
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion = 0.0/100 in the Earnings Quality Score (these metrics measure the extent to which reported revenue and profits are supported by cash and recurring drivers; both scoring zero is a notable concern).
- Piotroski F-Score = 2/9 (measures nine fundamental health signals; a low score indicates weak profitability, leverage/liquidity improvements or operating efficiency by Piotroski's criteria).
- Altman Z-Score = 1.90 (grey zone; measures distance to financial distress using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (this component measures the extent receivables behaviour is consistent with reported revenue; a perfect score indicates no flagged receivable abnormalities by the applied metric).
- Accruals quality = 72.6/100 (measures the relative size and stability of accruals versus peers; a higher score indicates accruals are not unusually large or volatile).
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 0.8619 (measures receivables relative to sales; below 1 suggests receivables are declining relative to sales rather than ballooning).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.7845 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.8008 (SGI <1 shows sales did not grow rapidly year-over-year; DEPI <1 indicates depreciation policies did not shorten life or reduce depreciation expense relative to prior year).
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minorities) is positive; parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025 (these are statutory statement facts showing the company has not reported cumulative statutory losses and equity remains positive).
Shareholdings are moderately concentrated among individuals and institutions: the largest individual shareholder holds 7.9% (Nguyễn Xuân Quang), with several institutional holders at 7.6%, 5.7%, 4.5% and 4.3%. There is no single controlling majority disclosed; director-deal registrations show 27 purchase registrations (16 registrants) and 0 sale registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are exchange-registered intentions to trade, not executed trades.
- Compare the three-year operating cash flows to reported net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and management discussion to reconcile the cash conversion ratio (OCF / net profit = -0.64).
- Open the notes on receivables, prepayments and other non-trade receivables to verify the composition of the 6.1% of total assets classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (loans receivable, long-term receivables, prepayments to suppliers).
- Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the depreciation/amortisation policy note to review asset capitalisation and the component behind AQI = 3.1339 and DEPI = 0.8008.
- Review related-party disclosures and the schedule of transactions with affiliates (loans to/from related parties, guarantees, and large prepayments) to assess whether cash, receivables or asset reclassifications involve group entities.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.84
- P/S
- 1.89
- ROE
- 6.3%
- ROA
- 2.5%
- EPS
- 1.446
- BVPS
- 26.102
- Gross Margin
- 41.8%
- Net Margin
- 16.8%
- D/E
- 0.37
- Current Ratio
- 2.98
- Rev Growth
- −21.6%
- Profit Growth
- +35.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.13
- Div Yield
- 1.8%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 485M
- Charter Capital
- 4,851B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT