Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 19.350
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 19.769
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 52%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.0523rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.2%39th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.9963, which by the original US cutoff would not signal manipulation, but versus Vietnamese peers it sits at the 88th percentile (higher = more aggressive accounting) and moved +2.41 year-over-year, indicating its accounting metrics have become more aggressive relative to local peers. Earnings-quality component scores are weak: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 16.5/100 with Cash Conversion 0.0/100, Receivables Quality 0.0/100 and Revenue Quality 0.0/100, while solvency and operating fundamentals show offsetting strengths (Altman Z-Score 3.42 in the “safe” zone; Piotroski F-Score 4/9).
- Beneish M-Score -0.9963: measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation; although above the US -1.78 cutoff, the company is at the 88th percentile among Vietnamese peers and the M-Score worsened by +2.41 year-over-year (the YoY change is a secondary cue given low persistence of M-Scores).
- DSRI 1.6396 (Days Sales Receivable Index): measures growth in receivables relative to sales and is elevated at 1.6396, consistent with potential revenue recognition or collection-timing differences.
- AQI 1.2049 (Asset Quality Index): measures growth in non-current or intangible assets relative to total assets; at 1.2049 it indicates rising assetisation (e.g., capitalised costs, long-term receivables or prepayments).
- TATA 0.1618 (Total Accruals to Total Assets): measures accrual intensity; at 0.1618 it is relatively high, consistent with accrual-based profit rather than cash-based profit.
- Earnings-Quality components showing serious weakness: overall 16.5/100; Cash Conversion 0.0/100 (operating cash flow failing to convert reported profit), Receivables Quality 0.0/100 and Revenue Quality 0.0/100, and Margin Quality only 34.1/100 — these point to low cash realization and weak revenue/receivables signals.
- Vietnam cash-conversion check (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.05 (5%): ranks at the 23rd percentile among Vietnamese non-financials, indicating reported profit is largely not turning into operating cash.
- LVGI 1.0798 (Leverage/Volatility of Gross Income index): >1 at 1.0798, suggesting some rise in leverage or income volatility versus the base period.
- Altman Z-Score 3.42: measures distance to bankruptcy; at 3.42 the company is in the ‘safe’ zone on the Altman scale, indicating low near-term bankruptcy risk by that model.
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9: measures nine fundamentals related to profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency; a score of 4 is neutral (mixed signals rather than clear deterioration).
- DEPI 0.9275 (Depreciation Index): <1 at 0.9275, which indicates depreciation expense has not fallen relative to prior-period asset base (less indication of manipulating depreciation to boost current earnings).
- SGAI 1.0206 (Sales, General & Admin Index): ~1 at 1.0206, showing SGA expense growth roughly in line with sales and not an obvious source of discretionary earnings management.
Control is concentrated: the state-owned Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam holds 59.6%. The listed entity controls four subsidiaries at 75% each (PCE, PMB, PSE, PSW) and has significant influence in PMP at 43.3%, implying a substantial group footprint and related-party transactions risk typical in VAS reports.
- Compare FY2025 operating cash flow to parent net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and the notes to cash flows to reconcile the 3-year cash-conversion ratio (0.05) and explain large non-cash items or timing differences.
- Inspect the trade and non-trade receivables and prepayments schedule (notes to receivables / other receivables) to verify the 1.2% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparties and related-party balances.
- Review the breakdown of 'other long-term receivables' and loans to related parties in the notes to determine components behind the AQI (1.2049) and any increases in non-current receivable or prepaid balances.
- Check the statutory statements and auditor’s report for the Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) amended by Decree 245/2025 loss indicators — the published FY2025 audited statements show none of those cancellation-triggering loss tests were met.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.22
- P/S
- 0.84
- ROE
- 9.6%
- ROA
- 6.3%
- EPS
- 1.578
- BVPS
- 16.696
- Gross Margin
- 17.7%
- Net Margin
- 6.6%
- D/E
- 0.36
- Current Ratio
- 2.41
- Rev Growth
- +23.2%
- Profit Growth
- +99.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.53
- Div Yield
- 4.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 680M
- Charter Capital
- 6,799B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT