Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 32.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 30.849
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 53.3%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.3628th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.5%53rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The accounting signals are mixed. The Beneish M-Score is -0.8679 (88th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of -1.48, indicating the company’s score is high relative to Vietnamese peers and the M-Score moved substantially year-over-year; several Beneish components point to revenue/receivable pressure (DSRI 1.9267) and rising selling/administrative intensity (SGAI 1.1599). At the same time, the Altman Z-Score is 3.60 (safe zone) and the Piotroski F‑Score is 6/9, while statutory loss tests show none met for delisting risk under Decree 155/2020 (as amended).
- Beneish M-Score -0.8679 (88th percentile vs VN peers; YoY change -1.48) — the M-Score is above most Vietnamese peers and moved sharply year-over-year (note: the -1.78 US cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN names exceed that).
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 1.9267 — measures receivables growth relative to sales; a value above 1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales, consistent with potential revenue recognition or collection issues.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1552 — measures accrual-based earnings; a relatively high positive TATA implies earnings contain substantial accruals rather than cash.
- Earnings Quality Score = 18.8/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 — the composite and two sub-scores indicate low cash conversion of profits and weak receivables quality in the scoring model.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.36 (28th percentile) — over three years, operating cash flow is only 36% of reported profits, low relative to peers and signalling profits are not fully turning into cash.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 1.1599 — SG&A grew more than sales, which may compress margins or indicate cost-side management issues.
- Altman Z-Score = 3.60 (safe zone) — measures distance to bankruptcy; the score sits in the safe zone.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 — a neutral-to-favourable score on fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.0562 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1128 — modest asset-quality deterioration and modest increase in leverage by these indices, not extreme.
- Statutory loss tests: none met under Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e) (amended) — the published audited statements do not meet the statutory criteria listed for cancellation of listing in the cited decree.
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority) positive — retained earnings are not negative and equity is positive per the checks.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam holds 75.6% (institutional, effectively controlling). The listed-group note shows a 51.0% holding in PBP (control); director-deal activity in 2025–10–30 to 2026–10–30 records one sale registration for 8,000 shares (registrations, not executed trades) and no purchase registrations, with net registered volume effectively -0.00% of shares outstanding.
- Compare the company’s 2025 consolidated trade receivables and the related-party receivables schedule to the DSRI drivers (note or schedule showing receivable ageing and related-party balances).
- Reconcile operating cash flow (statement of cash flows, 2023–2025) with net profit to verify the 3-year cash conversion ratio of 0.36 and identify the main non-cash accruals driving TATA = 0.1552.
- Inspect the SG&A note and revenue note in the 2025 annual report to see components behind SGAI = 1.1599 and SG&A growth relative to revenue (sales breakdown by segment or major expense lines).
- Confirm the statutory tests in the auditor’s report/management discussion (references to Decree 155/2020 Art.120 and subsequent amendment) to verify that none of the statutory loss/cancellation tests were met in the published audited statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.64
- P/S
- 1.06
- ROE
- 18.7%
- ROA
- 11.7%
- EPS
- 3.702
- BVPS
- 20.330
- Gross Margin
- 24.3%
- Net Margin
- 11.8%
- D/E
- 0.21
- Current Ratio
- 2.43
- Rev Growth
- +23.5%
- Profit Growth
- +38.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.46
- Div Yield
- 6.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 529M
- Charter Capital
- 5,294B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT