Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 9.823
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.8038th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 33.6%96th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.2793 (83rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.90, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most local peers and a recent upward trajectory in the score. Key accounting-quality components show very high Days-Sales-Receivables Index (DSRI = 2.2312) and elevated LVGI (1.3965), while cash-based measures are weak (TATA = 0.0464; cash-conversion three-year ratio = 0.80, 38th percentile). The firm has a high Altman Z-Score (13.73, in the safe zone) and neutral Piotroski fundamentals (4/9); statutory loss tests are not met and there are no accumulated losses in the published statements.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.2793 (83rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers): measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios; the company sits well above the US -1.78 cutoff and high versus local peers, and the score rose by +1.90 year-over-year.
- DSRI = 2.2312: measures receivables growth relative to sales; this elevated value suggests receivables are growing materially faster than revenue.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 33.6% of total assets (96th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials): proportion of assets in prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables is very high versus peers.
- TATA = 0.0464 (Total Accruals to Total Assets): low absolute accruals contribution to assets but paired with poor cash conversion (see below) may indicate timing or quality issues in earnings realization.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores — Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100: these components indicate very weak observable quality in reported receivables and revenue metrics.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) = 0.80 (38th percentile): a material portion of reported profit is not converting into operating cash compared with peers.
- LVGI = 1.3965 and SGI = 1.1478: measures of leverage/vulnerability and sales growth; elevated LVGI signals higher leverage or asset growth relative to peers which can stress earnings quality.
- Altman Z-Score = 13.73 (safe zone): measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and earnings ratios; this value indicates a large buffer against financial distress under the Altman model.
- Accruals quality = 81.4/100 and Margin quality = 76.0/100: accrual composition and margin stability score well, suggesting reported margins and accruals are more consistent with stable accounting.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral fundamentals): the F-Score does not show strong deterioration in basic profitability, liquidity and operating performance indicators.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent profit not loss in any of the last 0 years: the statutory balance-sheet indicators are not showing the kinds of losses that trigger delisting tests.
Tổng Công ty Phân bón và Hóa chất Dầu khí (DPM) holds 75.0%, representing clear controlling ownership and a listed-group structure in which the same parent controls several sibling subsidiaries (PCE, PMB, PSW at 75% and PMP at 43.3%). Director-deal registrations were not provided in the input (none reported here).
- Compare the line(s) or note titled 'Receivables', 'Loans and advances to customers', and 'Prepayments' in the FY2025 audited statements with the related-party disclosures: quantify how much of the 33.6% of total assets is to related parties or non-trade counterparties.
- Reconcile the consolidated 'Net cash from operating activities' for the past three years with 'Profit for the year' (parent) to reproduce the cash-conversion ratio (0.80) and identify the main reconciling items (changes in working capital, non-cash adjustments).
- Inspect the notes on 'Transactions with related parties' and any schedules of guarantees/receivables to find the composition of long-term receivables and whether they are loans, prepayments, or other advances (items driving the high receivables-outside-trade-cycle percentage).
- Review the auditor's report and the accounting-policy notes for revenue recognition, receivables provisioning and related-party lending to see policy choices that could affect DSRI (2.2312), revenue-quality (0.0/100) and receivables-quality (0.0/100) metrics.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.67
- P/S
- 0.03
- ROE
- 12.5%
- ROA
- 7.9%
- EPS
- 1.725
- BVPS
- 14.001
- Gross Margin
- 2.5%
- Net Margin
- 0.6%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 2.24
- Rev Growth
- +15.2%
- Profit Growth
- +13.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.81
- Div Yield
- 10.6%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 12.5M
- Charter Capital
- 125B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT