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KDH

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Kinh doanh nhà Khang Điền

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
13.300
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.6%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
13.300
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.513

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.991
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.45%
Ke
11.45%
x
E/(D+E)
70.98%
+
Kd(1-t)
4.86%
x
D/(D+E)
29.02%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.17%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→13.300
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.6%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.513
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%high risk: no
Growth rate4.17%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow803.6 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.2%2.7%4.2%5.7%7.2%
8.0%13.22413.22413.22413.22414.831
9.0%11.77811.77811.77811.77813.224
10.0%N/AN/AN/AN/A11.778
11.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
12.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·31,61928,84424,73720,50613,42113,11512,3279,5709,1107,2417,6352,8261,547
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2,5443,0963,7302,7531,3651,8361,1751,8362,5921,05998343589
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·21127794369032000.54400
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·5,4823,0181,8315,2084,2063,6223,7781,7601,5481,485654279381
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·3,2791,6426362,5842,1201,7571,7007017634694373208
Net Inventories
·23,26022,17818,78712,4537,7337,3387,0375,8174,8584,6185,8652,0751,068
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·23,26022,17818,78712,4537,7337,3387,0375,8174,8584,6185,8652,0751,068
Other current assets
·12227538149483193051571147890379
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.30.08
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2,4551,9141,7441,033952913910658606696907294194
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·626976737980961231248510300
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·121413131413181316151500
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·677381814047483430283244
Tangible fixed assets
·677381814047483430273244
Intagible fixed assets
·0.0000000000.020.060.100
Investment in properties
·230233131102586010055828500
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0012141414141498209227271175
Investments in associate companies
·00000000841932110161
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·000141414141414171727114
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·000000000−2−100
Goodwill
·000000000001113
Other non-current assets
·36151151113917231536202183
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·44593511634420.3
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·34,07430,75826,48121,53914,37314,02813,23710,2289,7177,9378,5433,1211,741
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·12,91011,30410,9589,7454,1515,8705,5733,3283,5263,5394,3701,584775
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3,5154,1825,3463,5032,2544,3344,5722,7751,8171,2721,037482212
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·1,8021,1001,4441,19581578737763218619421922417
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·6481,9012,3888921792,2972,7731,3671,0876705017897
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·9,3947,1225,6126,2421,8981,5361,0015531,7082,2673,3331,102563
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·8,3485,9984,9015,5761,7381,0584053371,4711,7002,6991,065547
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·21,16419,45315,52311,79510,2218,1587,6646,8996,1914,3984,1731,498966
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·21,16419,45315,52311,79510,2218,1587,6646,8996,1914,3984,1731,498966
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·11,22210,1117,9937,1686,4295,7875,4444,1403,3602,3401,800750481
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·352352352297237179134936848352323
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·3,5953,6183,7662,7802,3421,8361,3279076984692621097
Minority Interest
·00000000000380.3
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·34,07430,75826,48121,53914,37314,02813,23710,2289,7177,9378,5433,1211,741
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·11,22210,1117,9937,1686,4295,7875,4444,1403,3602,3401,800750481
Good will (Bn. VND)
·0000.0102349111300
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·2,6412,0592,0722373631393597792191600

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
26
Poor
Accrual Quality
58
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
4
Margin Stability
73
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.35 · 82nd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −0.33
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.280
GMI
0.896
AQI
1.171
SGI
1.419
DEPI
0.940
SGAI
0.969
TATA
0.107
LVGI
1.052

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−2.289th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
9.7%80th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

KDH's Beneish M-Score is -1.3516 (82nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers), with a year-over-year change of -0.33, indicating the company's accounting is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers though still above the US -1.78 cutoff. Earnings-quality metrics show concentrated weaknesses: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 26.2/100 with Cash Conversion 0.0/100 and Revenue Quality 0.0/100, while solvency and operating fundamentals are mixed (Altman Z-Score 3.46 in the ‘safe’ zone; Piotroski F-Score 5/9).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.3516 (82nd Vietnam percentile): measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns; the 82nd percentile means KDH scores more aggressively on Beneish components than ~82% of Vietnamese peers. The YoY change -0.33 shows the M-Score moved toward more aggressive signals this year.
  • DSRI 1.2803: the Days Sales in Receivables Index above 1.0 measures receivables growing faster than sales and is consistent with revenue recognition or collection timing concerns.
  • AQI 1.1711 and LVGI 1.0519: Asset quality and leverage/volume growth indices above 1.0 indicate non-current assets and asset reclassifications (AQI) and higher leverage/volume dynamics (LVGI) relative to prior year, which can reflect capitalisation or off-cycle asset recognition.
  • SGI 1.4186: Sales Growth Index of 1.4186 signals rapid sales growth (measures year-over-year sales growth); rapid growth can be a legitimate business feature but is also an input into manipulative pressure in Beneish.
  • TATA 0.1071: Total Accruals to Total Assets is positive and small but combined with poor cash conversion (see below) implies earnings are not being converted into cash.
  • Earnings Quality Score 26.2/100 with Cash Conversion 0.0/100 and Revenue Quality 0.0/100: these measure (respectively) overall earnings quality composite, operating cash-flow conversion of profit, and the sustainability/quality of reported revenue; both cash conversion and revenue quality at 0 indicate acute weaknesses in cash support for reported earnings and in revenue quality metrics.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle 9.7% of total assets (80th Vietnam percentile): measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; being at 9.7% and in the 80th percentile is a material exposure to non-trade claims on assets.
  • Three‑year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) -2.28 (9th Vietnam percentile): this low/negative ratio means reported profits have not turned into operating cash over three years and ranks poorly versus peers.
  • Director-deal registrations: 13 sale registrations (11 traders; 28,670,925 shares; 8 registrations without a volume) and 36 purchase registrations (21 traders; 87,728,200 shares; 1 registration without a volume) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades, and show many insiders/related parties registering both buys and sells.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score 3.46 (safe zone): this distance-to-bankruptcy measure suggests a low short-term insolvency risk on published financials. Z-Score combines working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity and sales to total assets.
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (neutral): this score measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 5 is middling and does not show clear financial deterioration.
  • Accumulated losses: none — undistributed earnings are not negative and the company does not meet the statutory loss triggers listed under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended by Decree 245/2025; statutory loss tests are not met in the audited statements.
  • Margin quality 72.5/100 and Accruals quality 58.1/100: these sub-scores indicate gross margin and accrual components are relatively stronger than revenue/cash conversion, suggesting some earnings components are supported by operating margins and moderate accrual behavior.
Ownership Risk

Top shareholders are concentrated among institutional players: Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Ltd. 13.9%; Công ty CP Đầu Tư Tiên Lộc 11.2%; Công ty TNHH Đầu tư Tiến Lộc 11.1%; Gam Ma 8.8%; Công ty CP Đầu Tư Thương Mại Á Âu 8.7%. This pattern shows substantial institutional and related-party group ownership concentration rather than a dispersed retail base; director-deal registrations show multiple insiders/related persons registering both buys and sells in the 12-month window.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year‑end 2025 schedule of receivables and the related‑party disclosure: quantify prepayments, loans receivable and long‑term receivables that make up the 9.7% of total assets.
  • Reconcile consolidated operating cash flow to parent profit for FY2023–FY2025: verify the components that produce the three‑year cash conversion ratio of -2.28 (operating cash flow / net profit).
  • Inspect the revenue recognition note and sales-by-segment or by-customer schedule to assess the drivers of DSRI 1.2803 and SGI 1.4186 (days‑sales/receivables and sales growth), including any large year‑end sales, returns, or related-party contracts.
  • Review the directors’ and major shareholders’ registration disclosures filed with HOSE/HNX between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 to confirm the details of the 13 sale and 36 purchase registrations (volumes, beneficiaries, purpose statements).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.46
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−2.41
Negative
Composite
44
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.43×Turnover0.14×Leverage1.61=ROE7.7%
Price Risk
Momentum
−54.2%
Volatility
30.9%
Max Drawdown
−59.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
16.56P/E
P/B
0.93
P/S
3.72
ROE
5.8%
ROA
3.2%
EPS
932
BVPS
16.506
Gross Margin
59.2%
Net Margin
35.0%
D/E
0.48
Current Ratio
8.99
Rev Growth
+42.2%
Profit Growth
+29.9%
EV/EBITDA
12.58
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
1,245M
Charter Capital
12,453B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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