VTR

Công ty Cổ phần Du lịch Vietravel

VietnamCyclicalsDu lịch và Giải tríDu lịch & Giải tríUPCOMCT

8.600

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Close near calibrated value

−4.2%Calibrated value vs last close

−50%At last close+100%+500%

Last close (VND): 8.600
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 8.239

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

Trading liquidity is low.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: 51.7%; 12 monthsHistorical calibration; Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

−1.4percentage points

Cyclicals12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.

Not an absolute return forecast.
Not a price target.
A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.

Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

Sector calibration span · percentage points

−7.9+8.6

The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
Actual returns can fall outside it.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Du lịch và Giải trí→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Du lịch và Giải trí” maps to the cyclical group.

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details

Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→72.59B

Fair EV/EBITDA→11.3x

Years of data→7

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→8.600

Calibrated value vs last close→−4.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

8.239

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Mid-cycle EBITDA72.6 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7

VTR among Cyclicals

Every stock in the sector, VTR marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is VTR. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	2,438	2,523	2,224	1,657	1,516	1,518	1,946	1,036	925	719	595	334
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	284	117	91	78	111	91	168	204	178	153	149	78
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	28	16	12	0.03	0.03	731	701	6	1	0.8	0	3
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	1,659	2,048	1,848	1,400	1,190	422	750	663	611	540	420	229
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	397	745	465	168	86	196	305	351	176	145	104	56
Net Inventories	·	34	0.2	0.07	0.3	0.4	41	40	37	29	17	15	0.4
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	36	0.2	0.07	0.3	0.4	42	42	38	29	17	15	0.4
Other current assets	·	433	342	273	179	215	233	287	126	105	8	11	23
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	515	130	124	178	539	340	236	172	122	167	142	131
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	10	8	8	8	9	86	15	8	6	4	2	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	10	8	8	8	9	86	15	8	6	4	2	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	31	19	25	43	63	73	82	89	64	41	52	59
Tangible fixed assets	·	20	6	14	28	45	63	72	78	56	33	42	37
Intagible fixed assets	·	11	13	11	14	18	10	11	11	8	9	9	21
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	6	5	5	46	385	16	16	12	17	20	11	16
Investment in joint ventures	·	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	5	8	0	4
Investments in associate companies	·	2	0.7	0.7	0.7	380	1	2	1.0	1.0	1	1	3
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	4	182	182	182	4	14	13	10	10	10	10	10
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	0	−178	−178	−137	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	305	16	13	10	13	54	62	33	27	97	76	56
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	32	15	12	9	12	25	29	29	23	96	74	54
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	2,953	2,652	2,348	1,835	2,055	1,858	2,182	1,208	1,047	885	738	465
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	2,164	2,182	1,912	1,714	2,047	1,690	1,943	983	911	767	646	419
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	2,067	2,148	1,909	1,692	1,553	1,666	1,209	927	868	758	631	395
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	745	882	705	705	867	1,092	237	79	7	34	114	62
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	359	329	292	279	185	175	398	350	429	346	257	135
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	97	34	2	22	494	24	734	56	43	9	15	24
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	95	33	1	16	493	20	714	36	23	8	14	6
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)	·	790	470	436	121	8	168	239	225	136	119	91	46
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	790	470	436	121	8	168	239	225	136	119	91	46
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	665	292	293	173	173	173	126	126	69	66	66	37
Other Reserves	·	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Foreign Currency Difference reserve	·	3	2	1	3	0.4	0.4	0.3	−269,365	0.1	0.02	0.10	0
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	23	23	23	23	23	25	21	16	10	4	1	0
Other Reserves	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	3	35	0.3	−78	−186	−37	79	67	51	43	20	10
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	2,953	2,652	2,348	1,835	2,055	1,858	2,182	1,208	1,047	885	738	465
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	84	0	0	10	0	0	0	0.4	0.6	1	2	0
Convertible bonds (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	19	19	19	0	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	665	292	293	173	173	173	126	126	69	66	66	37
Good will (Bn. VND)	·	274	0.5	0.7	1.0	1	29	33	3	4	2	2	0
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	7	1	2	3	0.6	9	14	16	10	9	6	0

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

75th–90th

M −0.68 · 90th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +1.10

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.761

GMI

1.061

AQI

3.928

SGI

1.065

DEPI

1.000

SGAI

1.376

TATA

0.166

LVGI

0.890

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: −7.554th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 16.6%88th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows multiple accounting signals that merit scrutiny: a Beneish M-Score of -0.6807 (90th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.10, driven largely by a very high AQI (3.9281) and rising SGAI (1.3764). Operating cash metrics and profitability metrics are weak — three-year cash conversion is -7.55 (4th percentile) and the Earnings-Quality score is low at 35.5/100 (notably Cash conversion 0/100 and Margin quality 0/100) — while receivables outside the trade cycle are material at 16.6% of total assets (88th percentile).

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score -0.6807: this is above the US -1.78 cutoff but that cutoff is US-calibrated; within Vietnam the company ranks at the 90th percentile (higher = more aggressive accounting than peers) and the M-Score rose by +1.10 year-over-year (a notable trajectory).
AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 3.9281: AQI measures increases in ‘‘non‑productive’’ assets (e.g., property, receivables, other long‑term assets) relative to assets; a very high AQI is a common signal of earnings management or capitalisation of costs.
SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative to sales index) = 1.3764: SGAI >1 indicates selling and administrative expenses growing faster than sales year-over-year, which can reflect cost capitalisation or one-off items affecting margins.
TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = 0.1657: positive large accruals (16.57% of assets) indicate earnings have a substantial accrual component relative to the asset base, consistent with the low accruals-quality score (42.5/100).
Cash conversion (3‑year OCF / net profit) = -7.55: the company is in the 4th percentile versus Vietnamese non‑financial peers, indicating reported profits have not converted into operating cash over three years.
Receivables outside the trade cycle = 16.6% of total assets: at the 88th percentile, this level (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long‑term receivables) is unusually high and contributes to the AQI and revenue‑quality concerns.
Earnings-quality components: overall E‑Q 35.5/100, with Cash conversion 0/100 and Margin quality 0/100 — these underline weak cash and margin sustainability despite Receivables quality being 100/100.
Piotroski F-Score = 2/9: weak fundamental signals (profitability, leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency measures are generally poor), which aligns with low cash conversion and high accruals.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality = 100.0/100: within the earnings‑quality framework receivables metrics look strong (no immediate signs of revenue recognition via trade receivables manipulation).
DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 0.7606: DSRI <1 suggests receivables turnover has improved year-over-year rather than ballooned from sales recognition — consistent with the perfect receivables‑quality score.
DEPI = 1.0000 and LVGI = 0.8904: stable depreciation index (DEPI ≈1) suggests no aggressive changes to depreciation policies, and LVGI <1 indicates leverage velocity is not accelerating unusually.
No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (ex‑minority) positive: the company has not reported accumulated losses and parent profit shows 0 consecutive years of net loss through FY2025, which are signs of solvency in published statements.

Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: three individuals and two institutions together hold large stakes (Nguyễn Thủy Tiên 20.9%, Vietravel Group 14.6%, Nguyễn Quốc Kỳ 11.2%, VinaCapital 9.9%). Director/insider registrations in 2025–10–30 to 2026–10–30 show 4 purchase registrations totalling 750,000 shares (net registered +1.14% of shares outstanding) and 0 sale registrations; these are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.

To check in the filings

Compare the year‑over‑year change in the 'other long‑term receivables' and 'prepayments to suppliers' lines in the Notes to the Financial Statements with the AQI components — quantify the increase that produces AQI = 3.9281.
Reconcile the consolidated 'operating cash flow' line and the parent 'profit for the year' across the past three annual reports to reproduce the 3‑year cash conversion ratio = -7.55; inspect the reconciliation of profit to cash flow for large non‑cash items or working‑capital movements.
Inspect the related‑party disclosures and the schedules for 'loans and advances to customers/related parties' to identify the composition of the 16.6% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
Review the notes on 'selling, general and administrative expenses' and accounting policy disclosures for capitalization criteria to understand drivers of SGAI = 1.3764 and whether costs have been reclassified or capitalised.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

2/9

Weak

Z-Score

2.82

Grey Zone

Sharpe

−1.16

Negative

Composite

30 to 49

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✗No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.13×Interest Burden−5.24×Op. Margin0.00×Turnover2.43×Leverage3.74=ROE0.3%

Price Risk

Momentum

−28.2%

Volatility

30.9%

Max Drawdown

−36.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

229.91P/E

P/B: 0.75
P/S: 0.08
ROE: 0.4%
ROA: 0.1%
EPS: 39
BVPS: 11.867
Gross Margin: 6.1%
Net Margin: 0.0%
D/E: 1.06
Current Ratio: 1.18
Rev Growth: +7.0%
Profit Growth: −96.5%
EV/EBITDA: —
Div Yield: 9.8%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 65.6M
Charter Capital: 656B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Du lịch và Giải trí
Industry (ICB L3): Du lịch & Giải trí
Sub-industry: Vận tải hành khách & Du lịch
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for VTR. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Nguyễn Thủy Tiên

Indiv

20.9%

13.8M

2025-12-31

Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn Vietravel

Inst

14.6%

9.6M

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Quốc Kỳ

Indiv

11.2%

7.4M

2026-06-30

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ VinaCapital

Inst

9.9%

5.7M

2025-09-30

Trần Đoàn Thế Duy

Indiv

2.7%

1.8M

2026-06-30

Võ Quang Liên Kha

Indiv

2.5%

1.7M

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Thị Lê Hương

Indiv

2.5%

1.7M

2026-06-30

Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Dịch Vụ Du Lịch Và Lữ Hành Quốc Tế Sài Gòn

Inst

1.8%

1.2M

2026-06-30

Đỗ Thanh Hùng

Indiv

1.5%

1.0M

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Hà Trung

Indiv

0.7%

463,772

2026-06-30

Huỳnh Phan Phương Hoàng

Indiv

0.7%

456,405

2026-06-30

Mạc Lê Đan Thanh

Indiv

0.4%

286,080

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Nguyệt Vân Khanh

Indiv

0.3%

179,803

2026-06-30

Lê Thị Tuyết Mai

Indiv

0.3%

174,943

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Hữu Ngọc

Indiv

0.3%

173,800

2026-06-30

Đỗ Thành Chiến

Indiv

0.3%

167,619

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Lưu

Indiv

0.2%

143,249

2026-06-30

La Huệ

Indiv

0.2%

141,291

2026-10-27

Board & Management

Nguyễn Quốc Kỳ11.2%

Chairman of Management Board

Trần Đoàn Thế Duy2.7%

Vice Chairman of Management Board/General Director

Võ Quang Liên Kha2.5%

Member of Management Board/Deputy General Director

Nguyễn Thị Lê Hương2.5%

Member of Management Board/Deputy General Director

Đỗ Thanh Hùng1.5%

Chief Financial Officer/Spokesman

Nguyễn Hà Trung0.7%

Deputy General Director

Huỳnh Phan Phương Hoàng0.7%

Deputy General Director

Nguyễn Nguyệt Vân Khanh0.3%

Member of Management Board

Lê Thị Tuyết Mai0.3%

Head of Internal auditor

Nguyễn Hữu Ngọc0.3%

Independent Member of Management Board

La Huệ0.2%

Chief Accountant

Mai Thị Ngân

Person in charge of Corporate governace

Top connections

PNJ9.9%GMD9.9%HUT9.9%CTD9.9%PHR9.9%QNS9.9%KDH9.9%

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: None
Purchase registrations: 4 by 4 traders; 750,000 shares
Registered net, share of outstanding:: +1.14%

Mai Thị Ngân
Purchase · Insider
50,000
2026-10-01
La Huệ
Purchase · Insider
100,000
2026-09-18
Nguyễn Nguyệt Vân Khanh
Purchase · Insider
100,000
2026-04-28
Trần Đoàn Thế Duy
Purchase · Insider
500,000
2025-12-03

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Also note

12-month sector-relative outlook

Valuation Breakdown

VTR among Cyclicals

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

VTR among Cyclicals