Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 12.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 11.880
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 3.2386th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 9.8%80th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The accounting-profile signals mixed concerns: the Beneish M-Score is -1.2118 (85th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.63, indicating that HUT’s accounting behavior has become materially more aggressive relative to local peers. Operational cash conversion is very weak (three-year operating cash flow / net profit = 3.23, 86th percentile) while the Altman Z-Score is 1.27 (in the distress zone); but accruals quality scores strongly (91.7/100), and there are no accumulated losses or statutory loss triggers in the published statements.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.2118 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios); Vietnamese peer percentile = 85th (higher = more aggressive accounting than most VN peers) and YoY change = +0.63 (the M-Score moved materially year-over-year).
- DSRI = 2.2351 (Days Sales Receivable Index; elevated DSRI can indicate revenue recognition issues or slow collections).
- DEPI = 1.4287 (Depreciation Index >1 measures slower depreciation or capitalization changes; can inflate reported profits).
- TATA = 0.0208 (total accruals to total assets measure of real accrual magnitude; although small, combined with other signals it needs context).
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 3.23 (86th percentile among Vietnamese non-financial firms) — profits are not converting into cash relative to peers.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 9.8% of total assets (80th percentile) — a material share of assets are prepayments/loans/other non-trade receivables that can obscure earnings quality.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.27 (measures distance to bankruptcy; this level is in the distress zone).
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: overall 31.1/100 with Revenue quality 12.5/100 and Margin quality 23.4/100 (weak indicators for the sustainability and reliability of reported revenues and margins).
- Accruals quality = 91.7/100 (measures the extent accruals reflect normal, high-quality earnings processes: high score indicates low abnormal accruals).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral fundamentals; not strongly deteriorated on the nine-point operational/financial checklist).
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive (these are simple balance-sheet facts that indicate the company is not reporting cumulative statutory losses).
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e), amended) — none met in the audited FY2025 statements (the published statements do not trigger the exchange cancellation criteria listed in that rule).
Ownership is concentrated: Tasco Holding holds 30.0% (institutional). Several individuals hold meaningful stakes (Phạm Quang Dũng 7.5%; three others each ~5.0%). Director-deal registrations in the past year show one sale registration of 3,500,000 shares (registered volume = -0.33% of shares outstanding) and no purchase registrations; these are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 "Receivables and prepayments" note to the total assets to verify the 9.8% share and read the breakdown between related-party loans, advances to suppliers and long-term receivables.
- Reconcile FY2023–FY2025 cash-flow statements with the income statements to confirm the three-year operating cash flow / net profit ratio (3.23) and identify major timing or non-cash adjustments.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation notes to reconcile the DEPI = 1.4287 figure (check changes in useful lives, capitalization policy or revaluation that affect depreciation expense).
- Check the auditor’s report and the statutory reporting notes for any disclosures tied to the Decree 155/2020 (amended) loss triggers and the statements that support the statement 'none met' for FY2025.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.23
- P/S
- 0.36
- ROE
- 5.1%
- ROA
- 1.2%
- EPS
- 461
- BVPS
- 10.081
- Gross Margin
- 9.3%
- Net Margin
- 1.7%
- D/E
- 1.22
- Current Ratio
- 1.58
- Rev Growth
- +22.3%
- Profit Growth
- +166.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 23.74
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 1,068M
- Charter Capital
- 10,683B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Ô tô và phụ tùng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Ô tô và phụ tùng
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất ô tô
- Company Type
- CT