SDU
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng và Phát triển Đô thị Sông Đà
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.326
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 20 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 4.7091st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 8.0%76th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting signals that pull in different directions: a high Beneish M-Score of 1.5038 (97th percentile among Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +4.17) and component flags (GMI 2.5818, SGI 5.3574, DEPI 2.4625) indicate aggressive accounting dynamics versus peers, while earnings-quality sub-scores are mixed — perfect scores on accruals, cash conversion and receivables (100/100 each) but 0/100 on margin and revenue quality. Other indicia: an Altman Z-Score of 1.15 places the firm in the distress zone for bankruptcy distance, yet the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, showing strong fundamental metrics. Vietnamese statutory loss tests are not met and there are no accumulated losses in the published statements.
- Beneish M-Score 1.5038 (97th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +4.17) — the aggregate M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns relative to a model of financial-ratio shifts; the high percentile and positive YoY move show the company's accounting profile is more aggressive than most local peers and has recently moved in that direction.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 2.5818 (>1 indicates gross margins deteriorating year-over-year) — this component measures whether gross margins have declined, which can prompt management to manage earnings.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 5.3574 (very large) — SGI measures sales growth; very high SGI signals rapid growth that, in combination with other ratios, can be associated with pressure to manage reported results.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 2.4625 (>1) — DEPI >1 indicates a change in depreciation (slower depreciation or capitalisation) that increases reported profit relative to economic depreciation.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.0667 (>1) — AQI >1 suggests rising non-current or potentially subjective asset balances (e.g., capitalised costs, long-term receivables) relative to total assets.
- Margin quality = 0/100 and Revenue quality = 0/100 — these scores indicate that the model finds weak quality in reported margins and in revenue behaviour (patterns of sales and returns) relative to peers.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.15 (distress zone) — this multi-factor score indicates limited distance from typical bankruptcy predictors based on working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value and sales; 1.15 is in the distress range.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 4.70 (91st percentile; high) — this measures how well reported profits convert into operating cash over three years. A value of 4.70 (high percentile) signals profit not translating into cash, consistent with the low revenue/margin quality signals.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 8.0% of total assets (76th percentile) — this measures prepayments, loans receivable and other non-trade receivables; a material 8.0% share suggests non-trade asset balances that require disclosure and scrutiny.
- Accruals quality = 100/100 and TATA = -0.0685 (TATA negative) — accruals measures indicate high quality (negative TATA implies operating cash flow exceeds income, reducing a typical accruals concern).
- Cash conversion sub-score = 100/100 despite the three-year ratio being high — the per-year modelled cash conversion metrics used in the earnings-quality score see operating cash metrics as strong on the company’s reported flows.
- Receivables quality = 100/100 and DSRI = 0.1861 (DSRI <1) — DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivables Index) of 0.1861 suggests receivables are not increasing relative to sales (a DSRI <1 typically reduces a receivables-manipulation concern), and the high receivables-quality sub-score supports conservative trade receivable behaviour.
- Piotroski F-Score = 8/9 — this score summarizes nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency). An 8 indicates generally strong profitability, improving or stable leverage and operational improvements by that metric.
- LVGI = 0.8989 (<1) — the leverage/asset growth index below 1 indicates leverage has not expanded unusually in the period measured (it suggests leverage growth is not a driving upward pressure).
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are not met — these are favorable line-item facts from the published statements.
Shareholding is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Sông Đà (an institutional/state-related entity) holds 30.0%, and an individual, Hoàng Văn Anh, holds 25.0%; VNDIRECT holds 16.3%. This mix gives two large controlling shareholders (one institutional, one individual) together holding a majority stake, which increases the influence of majority owners on group-level decisions and related-party flows as reported in disclosures.
- Compare 'Prepayments and other receivables' (and any line labelled 'Loans receivable' or 'Long-term receivables') in the balance sheet to the related-party and other receivables note — quantify the 8.0% of total assets and disclose counterparties, terms and collateral.
- Reconcile 'Net cash from operating activities' to 'Profit before tax' (and to 'Parent net profit') in the cashflow statement and notes for FY2023–FY2025 to understand the components producing the 3-year cash-conversion ratio of 4.70.
- Inspect the revenue recognition note and any segment/related-party sales schedules for unusual timing, percentage of revenue to related parties, or significant month/quarter concentration that would explain the revenue-quality = 0/100 signal.
- Review the fixed-asset and depreciation policy note (useful life, method, and additions/disposals schedule) to see whether changes in depreciation estimates or capitalization policies explain DEPI = 2.4625 and AQI = 1.0667.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.27
- P/S
- 0.24
- ROE
- 6.2%
- ROA
- 2.0%
- EPS
- 1.151
- BVPS
- 19.519
- Gross Margin
- 20.4%
- Net Margin
- 5.2%
- D/E
- 0.17
- Current Ratio
- 1.28
- Rev Growth
- +437.4%
- Profit Growth
- +1638.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.50
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 20.0M
- Charter Capital
- 200B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT