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Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng và Phát triển Đô thị Sông Đà

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuHNXCT
5.300
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+38.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
5.300
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.326

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→34.39B
Fair EV/EBITDA→16.2x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→5.300
Calibrated value vs last close→+38.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.326
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA34.4 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·8519809879669381,0669629338886941,033521278
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·81210102563131834747546
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.40.4138,000138,000236,000106,000106,00050503058,0003939
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·4244264103964143803363053402832917445
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·859797821007830124418224012
Net Inventories
·413537549542483604593527435357684330165
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·413537549542483604593527435357684330165
Other current assets
·661818171820342917112422
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000002322
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·212208217227247121119128150172158463522
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.060.010.060.010.50.50.010.20.30.40.400
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.060.010.060.010.50.50.010.20.30.40.400
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·130.20.20.50.81122728278631
Tangible fixed assets
·130.20.20.50.81122728272931
Intagible fixed assets
·00000000000570
Investment in properties
·178165173180187636669656841074
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·1723232424212232466576376416
Investments in associate companies
·101010101111111192942428
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·2424242424242435494949350415
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−16−11−11−11−11−14−13−14−12−14−15−15−7
Other non-current assets
·0.618192124242014110.610.5
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.3181920232419140.81.00.30.60.4
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,0631,1881,2041,1931,1851,1871,0821,0611,0388661,191984800
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·672835852841835837732712695525855649468
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·665825822789811801688651545444794644441
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·682442491951852281029376301929113
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·632742492733002923001866869533369119
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·8103052233644621508161526
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·022244162938571467658018
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·390354353352350349349349343341336335332
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·390354353352350349349349343341336335332
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·200200200200200200200200200200200200200
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·24242424242424242424241919
Other Reserves
·4444444444444
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·63262524232222211514885
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,0631,1881,2041,1931,1851,1871,0821,0611,0388661,191984800
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000000000.2000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·200200200200200200200200200200200200200
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
70
Good
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 1.50 · 97th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +4.17
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.186
GMI
2.582
AQI
1.067
SGI
5.357
DEPI
2.463
SGAI
0.400
TATA
−0.069
LVGI
0.899

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
4.7091st pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
8.0%76th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows multiple accounting signals that pull in different directions: a high Beneish M-Score of 1.5038 (97th percentile among Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +4.17) and component flags (GMI 2.5818, SGI 5.3574, DEPI 2.4625) indicate aggressive accounting dynamics versus peers, while earnings-quality sub-scores are mixed — perfect scores on accruals, cash conversion and receivables (100/100 each) but 0/100 on margin and revenue quality. Other indicia: an Altman Z-Score of 1.15 places the firm in the distress zone for bankruptcy distance, yet the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, showing strong fundamental metrics. Vietnamese statutory loss tests are not met and there are no accumulated losses in the published statements.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 1.5038 (97th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +4.17) — the aggregate M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns relative to a model of financial-ratio shifts; the high percentile and positive YoY move show the company's accounting profile is more aggressive than most local peers and has recently moved in that direction.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 2.5818 (>1 indicates gross margins deteriorating year-over-year) — this component measures whether gross margins have declined, which can prompt management to manage earnings.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 5.3574 (very large) — SGI measures sales growth; very high SGI signals rapid growth that, in combination with other ratios, can be associated with pressure to manage reported results.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 2.4625 (>1) — DEPI >1 indicates a change in depreciation (slower depreciation or capitalisation) that increases reported profit relative to economic depreciation.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.0667 (>1) — AQI >1 suggests rising non-current or potentially subjective asset balances (e.g., capitalised costs, long-term receivables) relative to total assets.
  • Margin quality = 0/100 and Revenue quality = 0/100 — these scores indicate that the model finds weak quality in reported margins and in revenue behaviour (patterns of sales and returns) relative to peers.
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.15 (distress zone) — this multi-factor score indicates limited distance from typical bankruptcy predictors based on working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value and sales; 1.15 is in the distress range.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 4.70 (91st percentile; high) — this measures how well reported profits convert into operating cash over three years. A value of 4.70 (high percentile) signals profit not translating into cash, consistent with the low revenue/margin quality signals.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 8.0% of total assets (76th percentile) — this measures prepayments, loans receivable and other non-trade receivables; a material 8.0% share suggests non-trade asset balances that require disclosure and scrutiny.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100/100 and TATA = -0.0685 (TATA negative) — accruals measures indicate high quality (negative TATA implies operating cash flow exceeds income, reducing a typical accruals concern).
  • Cash conversion sub-score = 100/100 despite the three-year ratio being high — the per-year modelled cash conversion metrics used in the earnings-quality score see operating cash metrics as strong on the company’s reported flows.
  • Receivables quality = 100/100 and DSRI = 0.1861 (DSRI <1) — DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivables Index) of 0.1861 suggests receivables are not increasing relative to sales (a DSRI <1 typically reduces a receivables-manipulation concern), and the high receivables-quality sub-score supports conservative trade receivable behaviour.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 8/9 — this score summarizes nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency). An 8 indicates generally strong profitability, improving or stable leverage and operational improvements by that metric.
  • LVGI = 0.8989 (<1) — the leverage/asset growth index below 1 indicates leverage has not expanded unusually in the period measured (it suggests leverage growth is not a driving upward pressure).
  • No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are not met — these are favorable line-item facts from the published statements.
Ownership Risk

Shareholding is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Sông Đà (an institutional/state-related entity) holds 30.0%, and an individual, Hoàng Văn Anh, holds 25.0%; VNDIRECT holds 16.3%. This mix gives two large controlling shareholders (one institutional, one individual) together holding a majority stake, which increases the influence of majority owners on group-level decisions and related-party flows as reported in disclosures.

To check in the filings
  • Compare 'Prepayments and other receivables' (and any line labelled 'Loans receivable' or 'Long-term receivables') in the balance sheet to the related-party and other receivables note — quantify the 8.0% of total assets and disclose counterparties, terms and collateral.
  • Reconcile 'Net cash from operating activities' to 'Profit before tax' (and to 'Parent net profit') in the cashflow statement and notes for FY2023–FY2025 to understand the components producing the 3-year cash-conversion ratio of 4.70.
  • Inspect the revenue recognition note and any segment/related-party sales schedules for unusual timing, percentage of revenue to related parties, or significant month/quarter concentration that would explain the revenue-quality = 0/100 signal.
  • Review the fixed-asset and depreciation policy note (useful life, method, and additions/disposals schedule) to see whether changes in depreciation estimates or capitalization policies explain DEPI = 2.4625 and AQI = 1.0667.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
1.15
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−1.39
Negative
Composite
64
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.72×Interest Burden0.71×Op. Margin0.10×Turnover0.42×Leverage2.72=ROE5.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
−54.9%
Volatility
123.8%
Max Drawdown
−80.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
4.60P/E
P/B
0.27
P/S
0.24
ROE
6.2%
ROA
2.0%
EPS
1.151
BVPS
19.519
Gross Margin
20.4%
Net Margin
5.2%
D/E
0.17
Current Ratio
1.28
Rev Growth
+437.4%
Profit Growth
+1638.6%
EV/EBITDA
2.50
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
20.0M
Charter Capital
200B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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