Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 29.450
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 30.320
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.4517th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.9%71st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The accounting signals for DPG show elevated forensic-risk metrics against Vietnamese peers (Beneish M-Score -1.3074, 83rd percentile; year-over-year change +0.34) alongside weak operating and fundamental scores: Altman Z-Score 1.72 (distress zone) and Piotroski F-Score 3/9. Cash-generation and revenue-quality measures are especially weak (Earnings-Quality 37.0/100; Cash conversion 0.0/100; Revenue quality 5.2/100), while receivables metrics look relatively clean (Receivables quality 86.3/100; receivables outside the trade cycle 5.9% of assets).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.3074 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation; company ranks at the 83rd percentile versus Vietnamese peers and the score rose +0.34 year-over-year, indicating accounting metrics have become more aggressive relative to peers and to last year).
- Earnings-Quality = 37.0/100 (composite measure of accruals, cash, revenue and margin quality; low overall score signals weak earnings quality).
- Cash conversion component = 0.0/100 and 3-year operating cash flow / net profit = -0.45 (company is in the 17th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; profits are not translating into cash).
- Revenue quality = 5.2/100 (measures reliability of reported revenue; very low score suggests revenue recognition or sustainability concerns).
- Altman Z-Score = 1.72 (distance-to-bankruptcy model; this value sits in the distress zone and signals higher insolvency risk by that model).
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures nine accounting/fundamental signals; a low score indicates weak recent fundamentals and financial-score deterioration).
- Total Accruals TATA = 0.1508 (measures discretionary accruals; a positive value of 15.08% of assets indicates accruals contributed materially to earnings).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.5282 (measures proportion of non-current assets and potential write-offs; value >1.0 suggests rising asset-quality pressure).
- SGAI = 0.8069 (selling, general & admin expense index <1 does not indicate immediate upward SG&A pressure, but when interpreted with weak margins (Margin quality 49.4/100) it can mask margin strain).
- Receivables quality = 86.3/100 (measures collectibility and alignment with revenue; the company scores highly on this component).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.9% of total assets (71st percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; while present, this level is not extreme relative to peers).
- DEPI = 0.9413 (depreciation index <1 suggests depreciation policies are not unusually conservative relative to prior year).
- LVGI = 1.0797 (leverage index modestly above 1; not an extreme leverage shift year-over-year).
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive; statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 and its amendment: none met (the published statements do not meet the statutory loss criteria listed).
Ownership is moderately concentrated in individuals: the largest shareholder, Lương Minh Tuấn, holds 15.9%, with three other individuals holding 6.6%, 5.8% and 4.2%. An institutional holder (Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited) holds 4.2%. Director-deal activity shows 4 sale registrations and 7 purchase registrations by insiders/related persons between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (these are registered intentions, not executed trades).
- Compare the FY2025 statement of cash flows operating cash flow line with the consolidated net profit (note or consolidated statement) to verify the -0.45 three-year cash conversion ratio.
- Review the notes to the financial statements for the composition of 'receivables and prepayments' and the related-party schedule to identify the 5.9% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
- Examine the auditor’s report and the asset impairment or fixed-asset notes for disclosures supporting AQI = 1.5282 and any impairment provisions or revaluations.
- Check the consolidated statement of changes in equity and the parent’s profit/loss note to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; also confirm that the statutory loss tests in the published statements are not met.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.54
- P/S
- 0.76
- ROE
- 15.6%
- ROA
- 4.5%
- EPS
- 2.759
- BVPS
- 18.776
- Gross Margin
- 15.1%
- Net Margin
- 9.9%
- D/E
- 1.30
- Current Ratio
- 1.89
- Rev Growth
- +25.3%
- Profit Growth
- +45.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.71
- Div Yield
- 1.8%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 119M
- Charter Capital
- 1,186B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT