Back to Dashboard

TDH

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Nhà Thủ Đức

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
2.570
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+30.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
2.570
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
3.347

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.837
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.78%
Ke
10.78%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
10.78%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→2.570
Calibrated value vs last close→+30.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
3.347
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)12.78%high risk: yes
Growth rate3.50%growth method: default
Base cash flow54.2 tỷone off strip ratio: 0.77

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
10.8%3.4653.4653.4653.4653.509
11.8%3.4653.4653.4653.4653.465
12.8%3.4653.4653.4653.4653.465
13.8%3.4653.4653.4653.4653.465
14.8%3.3473.3473.3873.3973.465
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·4014008539031,1762,9122,4702,1141,5661,1851,3911,189994··
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·23521233023191185961723059446··
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·22441147153283060632231··
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·861065585945871,4931,0141,059973691618388457··
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·18171719242233552501252128148··
Net Inventories
·2742292712984451,0291,037696402261402675448··
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·4403954374646101,0291,037696402261402681448··
Other current assets
·1510941.015217514666231011··
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000046··
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2852864805156662,6582,8582,4471,3081,6161,1391,2511,266··
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·13413435826838080168336232448250900··
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·36236236827841080568336130946448000··
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·30.20.30.94449476505948485278181··
Tangible fixed assets
·30.20.30.92335303326312019203153··
Leased assets
·000000586400000··
Intagible fixed assets
·0.020.030.040.0721141151166464667011··
Investment in properties
·11111787911421499261616568757··
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·2826261461253036383938007534458331,033··
Investments in associate companies
·42200.3264331203694650404427469··
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·4242421821824430719010610441420598··
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−18−18−18−35−57−6−0.5−0.7−0.2−0.20−14−35··
Goodwill
·00000000000204··
Other non-current assets
·8898152948342216264642··
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·6676112037232115233528··
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·6856861,3341,4181,8425,5715,3274,5622,8732,8012,5292,4392,260··
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·5046159589801,2213,3332,7682,0851,0381,0301,146925811··
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·4305809249451,1542,5392,2351,638815728648532486··
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0.20000460918712433313292277242··
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·2182572302602194465362887527475123··
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·7435343567794533447223302497392325··
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0.60000570324244183258452308273··
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·181703764396212,2372,5602,4761,8351,7711,3841,4051,361··
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·181703764396212,2372,5602,4761,8351,7711,3841,4051,361··
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·1,1271,1271,1271,1271,1271,127939816816710420382382··
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·00009279467491488484494468462··
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−948−1,056−751−688−694−143233166153120747434··
Minority Interest
·0000000000010988··
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·6856861,3341,4181,8425,5715,3274,5622,8732,8012,5292,4392,260··
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·8000101706633131133400··
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000000015151500··
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·1,1271,1271,1271,1271,1271,127939816816710420382382··
Good will (Bn. VND)
·00000.26790.40.40.100··
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·20.050.070.4179851797758132104000··

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
29
Poor
Accrual Quality
35
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 0.03 · 94th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +7.77
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.323
GMI
2.140
AQI
0.988
SGI
2.506
DEPI
1.331
SGAI
0.037
TATA
0.193
LVGI
0.744

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
56.5%99th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.84×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company's Beneish M-Score is 0.0265 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +7.77, signalling an unusually large upward shift in the model's indicators relative to peers rather than an absolute US-calibrated cutoff. Earnings-quality indicators are weak overall (Earnings Quality 28.8/100) with especially poor cash-conversion and margin/revenue-quality components, and the Altman Z-Score of -1.23 places the company in the model's distress zone while the Piotroski F-Score is middling at 5/9.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 0.0265 (94th percentile among Vietnamese peers): measures eight variables indicative of earnings manipulation tendencies; the high peer percentile shows the company scores more aggressively on these metrics than most Vietnamese peers.
  • M-Score year-over-year change +7.77: measures the change in the composite Beneish score from the prior year; a large positive change indicates a material shift in the underlying accounting signals compared with last year.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 2.1395: part of the M-Score family, this measures deterioration in gross margins (values >1 suggest worsening gross margins), here indicating sustained margin pressure.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.3307: measures changes in the rate of depreciation (values >1 can indicate slower depreciation or policy changes that inflate profits); this elevated value suggests a move that increases reported profits via depreciation timing.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1927: measures accrual intensity (higher values imply greater accruals relative to assets); 19.27% is a material accrual level and contributes to the lower accruals-quality score (35.3/100).
  • Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Margin quality 0.0/100: cash conversion measures ability to turn profits into cash; 0 indicates very weak operating cash flow relative to earnings. Margin and revenue-quality 0.0 indicate deterioration in profit margins and low-quality revenue patterns.
  • Altman Z-Score = -1.23 (distress zone): the Z-Score model's composite suggests a short bankruptcy distance by that model's construction.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 56.5% of total assets (99th percentile): measures amounts classified as receivables/prepayments/loans outside normal trade receivables; at 56.5% of assets this is extremely large versus Vietnamese peers and may reflect significant prepayments, loans to related parties or other non-trade claims.
  • Accumulated losses = 0.84x paid-in capital: measures the scale of retained losses relative to contributed capital; accumulated losses at 84% of paid-in capital show a substantial historical deficit position.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality 100.0/100: measures the composition and collectibility of receivables; a perfect score indicates the company's recognized trade receivables (as classified) are of high reported quality relative to the scoring rules.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.9883: part of the M-Score family, values near 1 suggest little deterioration in asset quality per that metric; here AQI just below 1 is not signalling asset-quality deterioration via that index.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 0.0372: very low SGAI indicates little relative increase in SGA expenses per the M-Score subcomponent (values >1 would indicate rising SGA share), so SGA pressure is not evident via this index.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 5/9: a neutral score on fundamentals (measures profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); the company is neither strongly deteriorating nor strongly improving on those nine binary signals.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is relatively dispersed among institutional holders: KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund 6.2%, Deutsche Bank / Deutsche Asset Management 6.0%, the Ho Chi Minh City State Financial Investment Company 6.0%, Vietnam Equity Holding 4.6% and Red River Holding 4.5%. No single majority owner is listed; a state-owned financial investor holds a meaningful 6.0% stake, which can be relevant in the Vietnamese context for group or policy relationships.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note or schedule that breaks down 'receivables and prepayments' with the related-party disclosures to identify how much of the 56.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle are loans to related parties, long-term receivables, or prepayments to suppliers.
  • Reconcile the components of total accruals in the cash-flow statement and the consolidated statements (operating profit vs cash from operations) to verify the TATA ratio of 0.1927 and to trace drivers of the 0.0/100 cash-conversion score.
  • Inspect the depreciation and fixed-asset policy notes to explain DEPI = 1.3307 (changes in depreciation rates or useful lives) and confirm any policy changes or revaluations in FY2025.
  • Review the statement of changes in equity and the retained earnings / accumulated losses line to confirm accumulated losses = 0.84x paid-in capital and to verify the parent profit (net loss) history reported (0 consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
−1.23
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−2.13
Negative
Composite
81
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden−43.82×Op. Margin−0.02×Turnover0.18×Leverage3.78=ROE59.7%
Price Risk
Momentum
−39.6%
Volatility
27.0%
Max Drawdown
−48.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
2.73P/E
P/B
1.66
P/S
2.41
ROE
87.0%
ROA
15.8%
EPS
963
BVPS
1.588
Gross Margin
20.0%
Net Margin
88.2%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
0.93
Rev Growth
+165.6%
Profit Growth
+136.3%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
113M
Charter Capital
1,127B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →