Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 13.543
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 3.0385th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 7.3%75th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.1667, placing it at the 92nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers and rising by +2.97 year-over-year, indicating accounting measures that are more aggressive than most local peers and that have shifted recently. Earnings-quality components are mixed: accruals, cash-conversion and receivables quality score 100/100, but revenue quality is 0/100 and margin quality is 71.8/100; the Altman Z-Score is 2.15 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.1667 (92nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +2.97). The M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation signals; a high peer percentile and a rising year-over-year trajectory are signals to examine accounting choices.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 5.3626. AQI measures the proportion of assets that are potentially subject to capitalization or reclassification (e.g., increases in receivables, inventory, intangibles); a high AQI relative to peers can indicate aggressive asset recognition or capitalization.
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100. This earnings-quality subscore indicates weak quality of reported revenue relative to peers or to cash/earnings patterns.
- Cash-conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 3.03 (85th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). A high ratio here (profit not turning into cash) is a common warning sign about earnings sustainability.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 7.3% of total assets (75th percentile). This line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is relatively large compared with peers.
- LGVI (Leverage Growth Index) = 1.0980 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.6405. These indicate leverage and sales have grown year-over-year; combined with AQI and revenue-quality weakness this can be a pattern seen when accounting choices change to support reported growth.
- Revenue-related Beneish components: DSRI = 0.9518 (suggests receivables days slightly decreased) but SGAI = 0.7242 (selling/general/admin expense growth lower than sales) — the mixed signals on revenue and margin dynamics warrant look-through.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 and TATA = -0.0489. The Accruals-quality score and a small negative TATA (total accruals) suggest reported earnings are not being driven by large accrual increases in the period measured.
- Cash conversion subscore = 100.0/100 despite the 3-year aggregate cash-conversion metric being high; this suggests near-term operating cash flows and accrual patterns are judged clean by the earnings-quality model used here.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 even though receivables outside the trade cycle are 7.3% of assets — the receivables-profile scoring indicates those receivables may be documented or aged in a way that scores positively on the applied metric set.
- DEPI = 0.9997 (Depreciation Index near 1.00). DEPI near 1 indicates no large, abrupt changes in depreciation policy or salvage estimates year-over-year.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (neutral). The F-Score shows neither strongly deteriorating nor strongly improving fundamental signals across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency.
Shareholding is concentrated: the state financial-investment company (Công ty Đầu tư Tài chính Nhà nước Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh) holds 49.0%, and two individuals hold 18.6% and 14.8% respectively, so ~82.4% of shares are held by the top three shareholders. Director-deal disclosures show 0 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration (1 trader; 1 without a volume) filed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30; these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 line(s) for 'Prepayments to suppliers', 'Loans receivable' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the balance-sheet notes to the reported 7.3% of total assets labelled 'receivables outside the trade cycle'.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and parent net profit in the cash-flow statement and the parent-profit note to understand the drivers of the 3.03 (3-year) cash-conversion metric; check the cash-flow from operations note and any explanations for non-cash adjustments.
- Inspect the revenue-recognition note, the schedule of accounts receivable aging and related-party transaction schedules to assess the cause of Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and the DSRI = 0.9518 result.
- Review the auditors’ report and the notes on fixed assets and depreciation policy to confirm the basis for DEPI = 0.9997 and the treatment of capitalized costs that contribute to AQI = 5.3626.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.84
- P/S
- 0.12
- ROE
- 13.2%
- ROA
- 3.6%
- EPS
- 1.600
- BVPS
- 12.422
- Gross Margin
- 4.6%
- Net Margin
- 1.9%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.09
- Rev Growth
- +70.7%
- Profit Growth
- +14.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 0.40
- Div Yield
- 8.7%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 28.5M
- Charter Capital
- 285B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT