Back to Dashboard

GTS

Công ty Cổ phần Công trình Giao thông Sài Gòn

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuUPCOMCT
10.400
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+30.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
10.400
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
13.543

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

  • Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→65.31B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→10.400
Calibrated value vs last close→+30.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
13.543
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA65.3 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,178885939842690738668643760631686606
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·268276176137180196102150297240107172
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.80.80.70.70525370000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·757485722618408468471390393324479298
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·1021621654931611225261320.5
Net Inventories
·12798408010268706667651321
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·12798408010268706667651321
Other current assets
·2525150.20.30.20.32186115
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000077110
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·265188184199220216201183148174116135
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·3661631262016161400
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·3661631262016161400
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·172175164162161154136767393115134
Tangible fixed assets
·172175164162161154136767393115134
Intagible fixed assets
·0.20.400000.040.080.10.20.20.1
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·000000000200
Investment in joint ventures
·000000000200
Other non-current assets
·07142128374550576411
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0714212837455057640.20
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,4431,0731,1241,041910954869826908804803741
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1,089738801729587617538512613494619359
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1,083734795723581611538512612493618357
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·000000048436300
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·278348333222136247174206200764746
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·64666600.30.50.812
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·354335323312322337332313295310183382
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·353334322311322336330312294309183382
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·2852852852852852852852852852809797
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·211313131300000630
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·463623122350452792923269
Budget sources and other funds
·0.90.90.90.90.90.9110.80.80.6−0.09
Budget sources and other funds
·0.90.90.90.90.90.9110.80.80.6−0.09
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,4431,0731,1241,041910954869826908804803741
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·2852852852852852852852852852809797

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
81
Good
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
72
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M −0.17 · 92nd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.97
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.952
GMI
1.449
AQI
5.363
SGI
1.640
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.724
TATA
−0.049
LVGI
1.098

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
3.0385th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
7.3%75th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.1667, placing it at the 92nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers and rising by +2.97 year-over-year, indicating accounting measures that are more aggressive than most local peers and that have shifted recently. Earnings-quality components are mixed: accruals, cash-conversion and receivables quality score 100/100, but revenue quality is 0/100 and margin quality is 71.8/100; the Altman Z-Score is 2.15 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -0.1667 (92nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +2.97). The M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation signals; a high peer percentile and a rising year-over-year trajectory are signals to examine accounting choices.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 5.3626. AQI measures the proportion of assets that are potentially subject to capitalization or reclassification (e.g., increases in receivables, inventory, intangibles); a high AQI relative to peers can indicate aggressive asset recognition or capitalization.
  • Revenue quality = 0.0/100. This earnings-quality subscore indicates weak quality of reported revenue relative to peers or to cash/earnings patterns.
  • Cash-conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 3.03 (85th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). A high ratio here (profit not turning into cash) is a common warning sign about earnings sustainability.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 7.3% of total assets (75th percentile). This line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is relatively large compared with peers.
  • LGVI (Leverage Growth Index) = 1.0980 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.6405. These indicate leverage and sales have grown year-over-year; combined with AQI and revenue-quality weakness this can be a pattern seen when accounting choices change to support reported growth.
  • Revenue-related Beneish components: DSRI = 0.9518 (suggests receivables days slightly decreased) but SGAI = 0.7242 (selling/general/admin expense growth lower than sales) — the mixed signals on revenue and margin dynamics warrant look-through.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100 and TATA = -0.0489. The Accruals-quality score and a small negative TATA (total accruals) suggest reported earnings are not being driven by large accrual increases in the period measured.
  • Cash conversion subscore = 100.0/100 despite the 3-year aggregate cash-conversion metric being high; this suggests near-term operating cash flows and accrual patterns are judged clean by the earnings-quality model used here.
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100 even though receivables outside the trade cycle are 7.3% of assets — the receivables-profile scoring indicates those receivables may be documented or aged in a way that scores positively on the applied metric set.
  • DEPI = 0.9997 (Depreciation Index near 1.00). DEPI near 1 indicates no large, abrupt changes in depreciation policy or salvage estimates year-over-year.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (neutral). The F-Score shows neither strongly deteriorating nor strongly improving fundamental signals across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency.
Ownership Risk

Shareholding is concentrated: the state financial-investment company (Công ty Đầu tư Tài chính Nhà nước Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh) holds 49.0%, and two individuals hold 18.6% and 14.8% respectively, so ~82.4% of shares are held by the top three shareholders. Director-deal disclosures show 0 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration (1 trader; 1 without a volume) filed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30; these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 line(s) for 'Prepayments to suppliers', 'Loans receivable' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the balance-sheet notes to the reported 7.3% of total assets labelled 'receivables outside the trade cycle'.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow and parent net profit in the cash-flow statement and the parent-profit note to understand the drivers of the 3.03 (3-year) cash-conversion metric; check the cash-flow from operations note and any explanations for non-cash adjustments.
  • Inspect the revenue-recognition note, the schedule of accounts receivable aging and related-party transaction schedules to assess the cause of Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and the DSRI = 0.9518 result.
  • Review the auditors’ report and the notes on fixed assets and depreciation policy to confirm the basis for DEPI = 0.9997 and the treatment of capitalized costs that contribute to AQI = 5.3626.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.15
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.48
Negative
Composite
79
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover1.71×Leverage4.08=ROE12.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
−9.9%
Volatility
29.6%
Max Drawdown
−28.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.50P/E
P/B
0.84
P/S
0.12
ROE
13.2%
ROA
3.6%
EPS
1.600
BVPS
12.422
Gross Margin
4.6%
Net Margin
1.9%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
1.09
Rev Growth
+70.7%
Profit Growth
+14.6%
EV/EBITDA
0.40
Div Yield
8.7%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
28.5M
Charter Capital
285B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →