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TAL

Công Ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Bất Động Sản Taseco

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
21.200
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+14.5%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
21.200
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
24.271

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.852
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.84%
Ke
10.84%
x
E/(D+E)
55.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
2.83%
x
D/(D+E)
45.00%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend6.66%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→21.200
Calibrated value vs last close→+14.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
24.271
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%high risk: no
Growth rate6.66%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow531.1 tỷone off strip ratio: 0.35

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth3.7%5.2%6.7%8.2%9.7%
8.0%24.72824.72824.72825.88225.882
9.0%24.72824.72824.72824.72824.728
10.0%24.27124.27124.72824.72824.728
11.0%23.64023.64024.27124.27124.728
12.0%23.64023.64023.64023.64024.271
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·12,5726,1745,7064,165
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1,261460289466
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2761137877
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·3,5261,4021,3581,018
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·1,212363309182
Net Inventories
·7,3064,0793,8412,440
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·7,3064,0793,8412,440
Other current assets
·203120140164
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2,7413,1504,2323,677
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·4206201,034814
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·434506217157
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·836854571126
Tangible fixed assets
·558566555125
Intagible fixed assets
·278287161
Investment in properties
·306319331297
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·14374532
Investments in associate companies
·33817
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·17404524
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−6−6−8−8
Other non-current assets
·14812929678
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·55689616
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·15,3139,3249,9387,842
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·8,7995,1005,9504,059
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·5,2492,0843,4683,577
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·1,1048051,126939
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·2,44613326215
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3,5503,0162,481482
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·3,2242,6952,137226
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·6,5144,2243,9883,783
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·6,5144,2243,9883,783
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·3,6002,9702,9702,700
Other Reserves
·6666
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·802640448403
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·15,3139,3249,9387,842
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·301141118337
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0128831664
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·3,6002,9702,9702,700
Good will (Bn. VND)
·334017837
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·986498455564

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
19
Poor
Accrual Quality
46
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
36
Margin Stability
1
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −0.93 · 88th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.03
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.136
GMI
0.668
AQI
0.505
SGI
2.214
DEPI
0.916
SGAI
0.736
TATA
0.152
LVGI
1.080

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−2.608th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
12.7%85th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The accounting signals for TAL show elevated indicators of aggressive revenue/receivables dynamics versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -0.9266 (88th percentile among VN peers) with a small year-over-year increase (+0.03). Cash conversion is very weak (three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -2.60, 8th percentile) while receivables and non-trade receivable items are large (12.7% of total assets, 85th percentile). At the same time, solvency and fundamentals are mixed: an Altman Z-Score of 2.49 (grey zone) and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 (neutral). The audited statements do not meet statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 as amended.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -0.9266 (measures probability of earnings manipulation patterns); this places TAL in the 88th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher percentile = more aggressive accounting relative to peers).
  • DSRI = 1.1356 (days sales in receivables index >1 indicates receivables growing faster than sales, a signal consistent with revenue recognition or collection stress).
  • SGI = 2.2144 (sales growth index well above 1, measures unusually rapid sales growth; rapid growth can make earnings quality harder to sustain).
  • TATA = 0.1520 (total accruals to total assets; elevated accruals reduce cash-based earnings quality).
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -2.60 (measures ability to turn reported profits into cash; negative and at the 8th percentile among VN companies is a material concern).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 12.7% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; 85th percentile among VN peers suggests unusually large non-trade asset receivables that merit scrutiny).
  • Earnings Quality Score = 18.9/100 with Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 1.4/100 (aggregated measures indicating low quality of reported earnings, especially on revenue and margin persistence).
  • Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): 8 sale registrations (5 registrants; total registered volume 10,175,097 shares, though 4 registrations listed without volume) and 10 purchase registrations (7 registrants; total registered volume 6,478,000 shares, with 7 registrations without volume). Note these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
Positive Signals
  • GMI = 0.6676 (gross margin index <1 indicates improving gross margins year-over-year, which is typically a positive sign for underlying profitability).
  • DEPI = 0.9159 (depreciation index <1 suggests depreciation policies are not becoming more aggressive relative to prior year).
  • AQI = 0.5051 and LVGI = 1.0796 (asset quality and leverage indices that are not extreme; AQI <1 suggests asset write-downs or more conservative asset valuation relative to prior year).
  • No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent-company net loss count = 0 consecutive years to FY2025 (these are balance-sheet level positives).
  • Statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are not met in the audited annual statements (i.e., the specific statutory triggers for delisting under that rule are not present in the published statements).
Ownership Risk

Shareholding is highly concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Taseco holds 60.0% (a controlling institutional block). Other shareholders are much smaller (largest individual 4.0%; foreign institutions like Vietnam Enterprise Investments Ltd 3.6% and Norges Bank 1.9%). The large controlling shareholder and group affiliation increase the importance of related-party disclosures and intra-group balances in the financials.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 trade receivables and the line(s) for 'prepayments to suppliers', 'loans receivable' and 'other long-term receivables' in the notes: reconcile the 12.7% of total assets figure to each note and schedules.
  • Reconcile operating cash flows to reported net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and the CFO reconciliation note to confirm drivers of the -2.60 three-year cash-conversion metric.
  • Inspect the related-party disclosures and group transactions (sales/purchases, loans, guarantees) for amounts and terms that could explain large receivables or prepayments given the 60% group ownership.
  • Review the accounting policies and depreciation schedules (note on fixed assets and useful lives) and the impairment/asset write-down notes to confirm drivers behind AQI = 0.5051 and DEPI = 0.9159.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.49
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−1.65
Negative
Composite
38
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.77×Interest Burden1.03×Op. Margin0.23×Turnover0.24×Leverage2.35=ROE10.3%
Price Risk
Momentum
−51.5%
Volatility
38.9%
Max Drawdown
−63.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
16.54P/E
P/B
1.92
P/S
2.85
ROE
13.9%
ROA
5.2%
EPS
1.785
BVPS
15.356
Gross Margin
37.3%
Net Margin
18.0%
D/E
0.66
Current Ratio
2.40
Rev Growth
+121.4%
Profit Growth
−1.2%
EV/EBITDA
13.79
Div Yield
4.4%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
504M
Charter Capital
5,040B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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