PVB
Công ty Cổ phần Bọc ống Dầu khí Việt Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 19.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 18.682
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −2.928th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.2%51st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting signals of aggressive revenue/receivables reporting and weak cash conversion: a Beneish M-Score of 0.4494 (95th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +4.89, a very high DSRI of 1.8504 and an SGI of 3.1361. Earnings-quality metrics are poor overall (Earnings Quality 8.4/100) with extremely low cash-conversion (0.0/100) and receivables quality (0.0/100). At the same time, balance-sheet distress is not extreme: Altman Z-Score is 2.21 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is neutral at 5/9; statutory loss tests are not met and accumulated losses are not present.
- Beneish M-Score 0.4494 (measures probability of earnings manipulation); this score lies at the 95th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting than peers) and increased by +4.89 year-over-year (shows a pronounced recent move in the index). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not fully applicable to Vietnam; percentile and trajectory are more relevant.
- DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.8504 (measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales; value >1 suggests receivables rising relative to sales), supporting concern about revenue/receivable recognition.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 3.1361 (measures sales growth; high value indicates rapid sales growth which can increase pressure to manage earnings), combined with LVGI = 3.9818 (large increase in leverage relative to sales).
- Earnings Quality overall 8.4/100, with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100 (these measure conversion of profit to cash and the quality of receivables; both scores at the floor indicate profits are not being converted to cash and receivables are of low quality).
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -2.92 (8th percentile vs Vietnamese non-financials; measures whether reported profit is backed by operating cash flow; a negative figure and low percentile indicate profit is not turning into cash).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.2723 (measures accruals intensity; elevated accruals can indicate lower earnings quality).
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.8412 and SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 0.5604 — GMI <1 and SGAI <1 may reflect margin and expense trends but must be interpreted with other signals; margin quality is low (9.1/100).
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e), amended) — none met (these are objective, published-statement tests that would trigger listing cancellation when met).
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive (fact from published statements; indicates retained earnings and positive equity position).
- Altman Z-Score = 2.21 (measures distance to bankruptcy; this is in the 'grey zone' rather than the distress zone), and Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures nine fundamental signals; a middle score indicating neutral fundamentals).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.2% of total assets (51st percentile vs Vietnamese peers; this metric captures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables — here it is close to median, which tempers extreme concern about off-cycle receivables volume).
- DEPI = 1.0000 (Depreciation Index ~1 indicates depreciation policy not changing materially year-over-year).
Control is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam (GAS) holds 52.9% (control, disclosed 2026-03-31). The company sits inside a listed state-linked group that controls multiple other listed subsidiaries (CNG 56.0%, PGD 50.5%, PVG 51.3%, PGS 35.3%), indicating group and state-related governance and related-party exposure consistent with Vietnamese group structures.
- Compare the FY2025 notes on accounts receivable and prepayments with the revenue note: reconcile the growth in receivables (DSRI 1.8504) to sales growth (SGI 3.1361) and disclose whether significant receivables are overdue or reversed in subsequent periods.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cash-flow statement and the management discussion: verify the components driving three-year cash conversion = -2.92 (check whether large non-cash items or working-capital movements explain the negative conversion).
- Inspect the related-party transactions and loans schedule for FY2025 for amounts classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (2.2% of total assets) to see proportion to total receivables and terms (maturity, interest, collateral).
- Review the auditor's report and the accounting-policy notes for revenue recognition, receivables provisioning and accrual accounting (given TATA = 0.2723 and Earnings Quality 8.4/100) to identify any changes in estimates or disclosure of one-off items.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.98
- P/S
- 0.52
- ROE
- 15.0%
- ROA
- 7.6%
- EPS
- 2.843
- BVPS
- 20.315
- Gross Margin
- 15.1%
- Net Margin
- 7.4%
- D/E
- 0.91
- Current Ratio
- 1.57
- Rev Growth
- +213.6%
- Profit Growth
- +325.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.35
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 21.6M
- Charter Capital
- 216B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Dầu khí
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Thiết bị, Dịch vụ và Phân phối Dầu khí
- Sub-industry
- Thiết bị và Dịch vụ Dầu khí
- Company Type
- CT