Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 12.364
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −253.250th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 8.8%78th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.01×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows mixed forensic signals: a Beneish M-Score of -1.2063 (85th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.16 indicates accounting metrics moving toward more aggressive peers, while the Altman Z-Score of 30.75 signals a large distance from bankruptcy. Earnings-quality measures are weak overall (Earnings Quality 26.5/100), with especially poor cash conversion and accruals quality.
- Beneish M-Score -1.2063 (85th percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +1.16). The M-Score summarizes a set of eight ratios; a US-calibrated cutoff of -1.78 exists but about 28% of Vietnamese firms exceed it, so the peer percentile and the YoY move are the more relevant cues.
- Earnings Quality score 26.5/100, with Accruals quality 6.2/100 and Cash conversion 0.0/100 — indicating profits are poorly supported by cash and high accruals risk.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -253.25 (0th percentile vs Vietnamese non-financials). This measures the degree to which reported profit converts into operating cash flow; a strongly negative value shows profit not turning into cash.
- Piotroski F-Score = 2/9 (weak fundamentals). The F-Score aggregates profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals; a score of 2 is low.
- S G A I = 3.5713 (component of Beneish) and TATA (total accruals) = 0.3532 — high SGAI and positive TATA point to expense and accruals patterns that commonly appear in more aggressive reporting.
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion subscore 0.0/100 within the Earnings Quality components — revenue and cash generation look especially poor.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 8.8% of total assets (78th percentile). This line measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; it is elevated versus peers and may reflect non-trade receivables or related-party balances.
- Altman Z-Score = 30.75 (well within the safe zone). This score measures financial distress/bankruptcy distance using liquidity, profitability and leverage components; a very high value indicates large distance from typical distress cutoffs.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 in the Earnings Quality breakdown, suggesting reported receivables (as a trade asset) appear of high quality in that metric even though receivables outside the trade cycle are elevated.
- Accumulated losses = 0.01x paid-in capital and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; the company has not reported parent net losses in the latest year (Net loss in 0 consecutive years up to FY2025). These are factual indicators of solvency at the balance-sheet level.
The shareholder base is concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Hạ tầng GELEX holds 65.0%, with three more institutional holders at 5.0%, 5.0% and 4.0%; an individual (Phạm Quy Nhơn) is recorded at 0.0%. This indicates dominant institutional/group control which is common in Vietnamese listed groups and can influence related-party transactions and group flows.
- Compare the FY2025 note on 'receivables and other receivables' to the balance-sheet line that shows 8.8% of total assets in receivables outside the trade cycle; identify counterparty types (related parties, suppliers, subsidiaries) and maturities.
- Reconcile the consolidated cash-flow from operations to reported consolidated net profit for FY2023–FY2025 to verify the three-year cash conversion calculation (operating cash flow / net profit = -253.25).
- Review the notes on selling, general & administrative expenses (SG&A) and the related-party transactions schedule to understand drivers of the SGAI = 3.5713 and any non-recurring or related-party allocations.
- Inspect the auditor's report and the statutory schedules for Decree 155/2020 (and Decree 245/2025) disclosures; note that the company trades on UPCoM and the HOSE/HNX statutory loss delisting rule does not apply to its listing venue.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.06
- P/S
- 165.67
- ROE
- 0.1%
- ROA
- 0.1%
- EPS
- 6
- BVPS
- 10.005
- Gross Margin
- 49.0%
- Net Margin
- 10.0%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 25.90
- Rev Growth
- +7.1%
- Profit Growth
- +5.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 176M
- Charter Capital
- 1,760B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT