Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 25.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 28.077
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 2.0276th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.6%44th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M‑Score is -1.6614 (76th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating its overall profile is more aggressive than most local peers and has moved materially year-over-year (+0.89). Key component signals include a high DSRI (2.0473) and DEPI (1.7105), while accruals and cash conversion metrics are strong (Earnings‑Quality score 50/100 with 100/100 for accruals and cash conversion).
- Beneish M‑Score -1.6614 (76th percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +0.89): the score combines eight inputs to flag the likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to peers; the YoY rise shows accounting behavior has shifted recently (note: the -1.78 US cutoff is less informative in Vietnam where ~28% cross it).
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 2.0473: this measures the change in receivables relative to sales; a value above 1 implies receivables grew faster than sales and may reflect revenue recognition or collection issues.
- Depreciation Index (DEPI) = 1.7105: this measures the change in the rate of depreciation; a value above 1 indicates depreciation expense has fallen relative to gross PPE, which can inflate reported earnings compared with prior periods.
- LVGI = 1.1544 (Leverage Index): indicates rising leverage year over year, which increases pressure on profits and can influence accounting choices.
- Earnings‑Quality component failures: Receivables quality 0/100, Margin quality 0/100, Revenue quality 0/100 — these three scores indicate concerns about the composition and sustainability of reported revenue and margins despite strong accruals and cash conversion scores.
- Accruals quality 100/100 and Cash conversion 100/100 (Earnings‑Quality subscores): operating cash flow is consistent with reported profits and accruals appear low or stable, reducing concern that earnings are driven by noncash accruals.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0365: a small negative aggregate accruals ratio, consistent with the accruals‑quality score and suggesting limited earnings propping via accruals.
- Altman Z‑Score = 2.22 (grey zone): not in immediate distress (<1.8) but distance to default is limited; combined with a Piotroski F‑Score of 5/9 (neutral fundamentals) this points to neither strong deterioration nor clear financial distress.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle are modest at 1.6% of total assets (44th percentile): the absolute level in the filings is low relative to many peers, which tempers some concerns from the DSRI.
Top shareholders are concentrated: Huỳnh Thị Lan holds 24.4% and the state‑linked Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam holds 18.2%, with a few other individuals/institutions (7.1%, 4.9%, 3.0%). This structure shows significant insider and state‑related ownership, which can influence related‑party transactions, dividend policy and accounting choices under Vietnamese group and VAS contexts.
- Compare year‑over‑year trade receivables and revenue notes: reconcile the DSRI (2.0473) by checking sales growth versus the receivables aging and note disclosures.
- Inspect the fixed‑asset note for changes in depreciation methods, useful lives or revaluations that could explain DEPI = 1.7105 and the lower reported depreciation expense.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit and the components of accruals in the cash‑flow note to confirm the cash conversion metric (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit = 2.02).
- Review related‑party schedules and the notes on receivables/long‑term receivables to verify the composition of the 1.6% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.46
- P/S
- 0.62
- ROE
- 0.3%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- EPS
- 170
- BVPS
- 50.240
- Gross Margin
- 26.4%
- Net Margin
- 0.5%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 5.49
- Rev Growth
- +7.6%
- Profit Growth
- −65.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 19.95
- Div Yield
- 2.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 25.3M
- Charter Capital
- 253B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Y tế
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Dược phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Dược phẩm
- Company Type
- CT