Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.210
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.966
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −1.2512th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.2%39th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.5197 (90th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.40, indicating its accounting profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has shifted materially year-over-year. Complementary signals show low cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -1.25, 12th percentile), weak fundamentals (Piotroski F-Score 2/9), and a distressed Altman Z-Score of 1.10, while receivables outside the trade cycle are modest at 1.2% of total assets (39th percentile).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.5197 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns; company ranks at the 90th percentile among Vietnamese peers; note the US cutoff -1.78 is not directly calibrated to Vietnam).
- Year-over-year M-Score change = +1.40 (measures the trajectory of the score; a large positive move indicates recent change in the accounting pattern).
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.9991 (measures deterioration in gross margins year-over-year; values >1 flag margin deterioration).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 3.0024 (measures sales growth; values >1 indicate rapid growth that can pressure recognition choices).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1545 (measures accruals intensity; higher values indicate earnings supported by accruals rather than cash).
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.7821 (measures increase in leverage; >1 indicates rising leverage).
- Cash conversion, three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -1.25 (measures whether reported profits convert to cash; negative and at the 12th percentile among VN peers).
- Altman Z-Score = 1.10 (measures financial distress / distance to bankruptcy; 1.10 is in the 'distress' zone).
- Piotroski F-Score = 2/9 (measures nine fundamental quality signals; 2 indicates weak fundamentals).
- Earnings-quality components: Cash conversion score = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100 (both measure conversion of accounting profits into cash and stability of margins, respectively), and overall Earnings Quality = 35.7/100 (low).
- Yearly DSRI = 0.4335 and AQI = 0.0623 (DSRI <1 typically indicates slower receivables growth relative to sales; AQI low suggests asset quality changes are small but must be read with other indices).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.2% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; at the 39th percentile this is modest relative to peers).
- Receivables quality component = 100.0/100 (measures the quality and collectibility of receivables; a strong signal).
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (non-minority) is positive (these are balance-sheet facts reported in the statements).
- Director-deal registrations: 0 sale registrations and 8 purchase registrations (7 traders) totalling 1,140,000 shares, net registered volume = +2.71% of shares outstanding (these are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).
- DEPI = 0.9008 (Depreciation Index <1 can indicate faster depreciation or lower asset revaluation pressure; interpreted alongside AQI).
The largest shareholder is Tập đoàn Đầu tư và Phát triển Công nghiệp Becamex with 44.4% (institutional, concentrated control). The next largest institutional holder is MB Fund Management at 4.8%; individual insiders collectively hold small stakes (largest individuals: Nguyễn Kim Tiên 0.9%, Trần Thiện Thể 0.5%, Lê Phan Minh Vũ 0.5%). Director-deal disclosures show net registered purchases equivalent to +2.71% of outstanding shares (registrations, not trades).
- Compare the three-year operating cash flow to reported net profit in the cash-flow statement and management discussion to explain the cash conversion ratio (-1.25).
- Inspect the notes/schedules for 'Long-term receivables', 'Prepayments' and related-party balances and compare the total to the 1.2% of total assets reported for receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile total accruals to total assets (TATA = 0.1545) with the movement in working-capital and non-cash adjustments in the cash-flow statement and the notes on accounting policies for revenue and accruals.
- Review the consolidated related-party transactions, ownership schedule and the director-deal registration disclosures in the corporate governance or insider transactions note to verify the 44.4% Becamex holding and the 1,140,000-share purchase registrations.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.58
- P/S
- 0.31
- ROE
- 23.6%
- ROA
- 6.2%
- EPS
- 2.907
- BVPS
- 13.581
- Gross Margin
- 18.8%
- Net Margin
- 11.6%
- D/E
- 1.31
- Current Ratio
- 1.56
- Rev Growth
- +195.1%
- Profit Growth
- +35.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.42
- Div Yield
- 3.8%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 42.0M
- Charter Capital
- 420B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT