Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.813
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.8215th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 19.2%90th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting signals that merit scrutiny: a Beneish M-Score of -0.4097 (91st percentile versus Vietnamese peers) together with a year-over-year M-Score move of -0.85 indicates the company’s financial-statement profile has shifted materially relative to peers. At the same time the Altman Z-Score is 1.11 (in the distress zone for bankruptcy distance) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral). Several specific earnings-quality metrics are weak (cash-conversion and margin/revenue quality scores are 0/100) while receivables-quality is strong (100/100) and receivables outside the trade cycle are large at 19.2% of total assets (90th percentile). Statutory loss tests are not met and there are no accumulated losses in the published statements.
- Beneish M-Score = -0.4097 (measures probability of earnings manipulation patterns; this score sits in the 91st percentile among Vietnamese peers — a high relative ranking — and the M-Score moved by -0.85 year-over-year, indicating a notable change in the company’s Beneish profile).
- GMI = 2.5704 (Gross Margin Index; measures deterioration in gross margin — GMI >1 suggests gross margins worsened year-over-year).
- SGI = 2.1176 (Sales Growth Index; measures sales growth — high SGI indicates rapid growth, which in conjunction with other signals can increase accounting complexity).
- DEPI = 1.1623 (Depreciation Index; >1 implies depreciation expense decreased relative to prior-year gross PPE, which can arise from changes in useful lives or estimates).
- TATA = 0.1019 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; elevated accruals can indicate earnings not driven by cash — here TATA is ~10.2%).
- Earnings-Quality Score = 34.9/100 with Cash-conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100 (these measure how much reported profit converts to operating cash and the stability/quality of margins — both are weak).
- Three-year cash-conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.82 (15th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; a negative ratio and low percentile indicate profits have not converted into operating cash over three years).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 19.2% of total assets (90th percentile; this line captures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables — it is large relative to peers and may warrant scrutiny of composition and related-party links).
- Altman Z-Score = 1.11 (distress zone; measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and profit variables).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (this metric measures the apparent quality and collectibility of receivables relative to expectations — a strong score).
- Accruals quality = 59.5/100 (a middling score indicating accruals are not extreme relative to peers; some accrual-based noise exists but it is not at the worst end).
- LVGI = 0.8684 (Leverage Index; indicates changes in leverage — below 1 can reflect stable or reduced leverage relative to prior year, depending on component interpretation).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures simple fundamentals — asset, profitability and cash-flow signals — a neutral score rather than an outright deterioration across fundamentals).
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) = none met (the published audited annual statements do not meet the statutory thresholds that trigger exchange cancellation procedures).
- No accumulated (undistributed) losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — the balance sheet shows retained earnings and positive equity.
Ownership is concentrated: Tập đoàn Đầu tư và Phát triển Công nghiệp Becamex holds 47.7%, with two other institutions at 8.0% and 7.6%; the largest two individuals hold 0.8% and 0.4%. Director-deal registrations over the past year show one sale registration (100,000 shares) and four purchase registrations totalling 3,000,000 shares, with net registered volume of +2.28% of shares outstanding (registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the line items and note that compose 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (prepayments, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) in the FY2025 balance-sheet notes and provide a breakdown by counterparty and related party.
- Reconcile profit before tax to operating cash flow in the cash-flow statement and the cash-flow reconciliation note for FY2023–FY2025 to explain the three-year cash-conversion ratio of -0.82 (identify the largest non-cash and working-capital drivers).
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation notes for changes in useful lives, impairment charges or revaluation that explain DEPI = 1.1623 and any year-over-year change in depreciation policy or estimates.
- Review the related-party transactions and loans/advances schedules (notes on balances and terms) to assess whether a material portion of receivables outside the trade cycle or other large balances are with group or related parties.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.50
- P/S
- 0.34
- ROE
- 19.2%
- ROA
- 6.1%
- EPS
- 2.165
- BVPS
- 13.254
- Gross Margin
- 20.1%
- Net Margin
- 11.2%
- D/E
- 0.74
- Current Ratio
- 0.89
- Rev Growth
- +111.3%
- Profit Growth
- −33.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.12
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 127M
- Charter Capital
- 1,272B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Tư Vấn, Định giá, Môi giới Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT